Who Gets the "Three Tickets" Out of Iowa?

I think it'll be Dean, Edwards, and Kerry. Gep simply has too high expectations set for him, and his poll numbers are tanking quickly.

Kerry seems to finally have the big momentum going for him, while Dean has his excellent ground operation to bank on.

Even if Edwards was to finish fourth, as long as it's reasonably close, he's exceeded expectations.

Its the other three--but NH will be interesting as Clark has swiped votes from Kerry and Dean (in that order I think). Will they begin to bump up in NH or will the former supporters now with Clark stick with him? Should be interesting.

Edwards is a close fourth

This may be more correctly an individual post, but whatever...

I've been here about six weeks now and cannot recall reading a single post from a DUer claiming to be A Gephardt supporter. I've seen tons from Dean, Clark and Kucinich folks, a fair amount from Kerry folks, a few Lieberman and Edwards folks, one from a CMB supporter and none from Gephardt and Sharpton.

that I've "met." Very civil too.

union man and gep fan. so here is one!

I really think that he will go down in history as one of the greats in the House of Representatives, and that ain't nothing to sneeze at. I will be very happy if he's Mr. Speaker one day.

If he wins, it wouldn't make sense for him to drop out of the race, but on the other hand, he's spending a lot of money so I don't know how far he can go.

Speaking of money, I thought the campaign $$$ info was suppose to come out yesterday on opensecrets.org but so far it hasn't been updated.

it's almost likely 2 will tie...

how does a Tie affect the number of tickets... more tickets? less tickets? If someone gets bumped because of a tie, do they get a voucher for a free future ticket?

As a horseplayer, it's time to get in line before the teller's close. With my form clutched too tightly in my hand.

One hundred exacta box of Kerry/Dean. It's is too close to call at this point. If there wasn't an exacta but was a trifecta, I'd have to box Dean/Kerry/Edwards.

I might regret thsi bet afer the Des Moines Register poll comes out with these guys first, but I think it's a smart bet with what I know now.

My gut feeling is the crowd would put too much money on Edwards to place. If they put all their money in the show pool, I really like Edwards in the abstract in a candidate, and his workouts this week have been stellar. He's definitely in his class here. Maybe drop $20 on Edwards to place as long as it pays decently. Defintely in the box for a trifecta.

Gephardt's ready for a drop in class, and probably a pricey maiden claimer. I don't think he's worth putting any money on, and certainly not worth upping the ante on an exacta or trifecta box.

So, let's take a mythical $100. If it's an exacta, box Kerry/Dean for $50 of it. If it's a trifecta, box Kerry/Dean/Edwards at $25 each for $75, and $25 on Dean (sentimental sucker bet, but sometimes you gotta go with your gut). If there's no specials, it would depend on the toe board. Again, by gut says Dean, but I probaby don't drop the whole wad on him. I'd probably be looking very closely at the tote for win/place/show payoffs.

Edwards I think shows for sure. If the payout's right, he gets something. Dean may be a newbee, but Trippi is an excellent trainer going back several seasons, and I think I go maybe $30 on Dean to win, and save the rest for another race.

So, who do you like in the 2nd at N.H.?

Dean, is sitting pretty in second place - so a win (which I expect) will help him play the comeback kid card. Second, if it's close, won't hurt him too badly, but he won't come out with the expected strength to go up against Clark and Kerry in NH.

Unless Gep wins, he's toast.

Kerry, now may sit with the mantle of highests expecations, if these polling trends continue. Does he have the organization to deliver the support that's being expressed for him. First is magnificent for Kerry, second is good. Third, he may be damaged.

Edwards, may struggle to get the 15% in enough caucuses to hurt. But could be a good compromise candidate after the first round of caucusing. A decent 4th keeps him alive. If he's third, the 4th candidate is probably sunk.

However Dean come's out, the races are close and he's running his best distance. As the younger horse in the race, he may be tired and start to drop in the second part of this mythical day at the races.

Clark's the unknown. He's like some Irish import coming off of long runs on the grass for a miler on the dirt. We dont' know how he's going to like the new pace and the dust in his face.

That will make N.H. very tricky. If Dean windows IA, it may indicate that's he's still on a positive trend line, and with more experience (and in his own environment) he'd still be the favorite.

As a Dean man, I'd want to put some money on him. But not knowing the true field or what the track is like after IA, it's hard to say at this point.

If Kerry finishes first or second in IA, that would be a strong indicator that NH would look a lot like IA, with Clark's the contendor to watch. Hell, if Edwards finishs strong in IA, this is starting to look more like a race better spent scanning the form for the next one.

If this was the ninth and not the second (and I'd had a few too many beers in the sun), maybe I'd play a $2 Trifecta box of Dean-Kerry-Clark just for fun, but Edwards may make N.H. awfully murky if he finishes really strong in IA.

If Gep loses to anyone, he's gone. If Dean loses, the media will go nuts.

As great a Democrat as he as always been, he just doesn't have it, and if he can't persuade Iowans, he can't persuade anyone.

Gephardt done if he is not in first place.
Kerry done if he is not in top three.
So I'm guessing they won't get tickets.
But maybe they will who knows very fluid.

No, wait. I changed my mind.

Now I think it'll be Dean, Gephardt, and Kucinich in that order.

Gephart's numbers are going south while Kerry's are rising, and Dean's 'Perfect Storm' is sweeping into Iowa as we speak.

Goodbye, Dick! :)

However, if he finishes second I don't think he'll drop out immediately.

;-) e