Kucinich and Iowa

So there has been a lot of talk on the board about the polls, Kerry and Edwards surging, what will happen with this or that result.

What about Kucinich? I don't want to rehash the electibility arguments, but my question is, how well does he have to do in order to get some positive press coverage? It's all about expectations -- what result would be exceeding expectations enough to give DK some momentum?

Also, if I understand correctly, for each caucus, a candidate must have at least 15% support in order to win delegates. So the numbers seem to suggest that in some caucuses at least, DK supporters are going to have to choose someone else. Who are they likely to support? Dean has the anti-war buzz but he has also generated some animosity among DK supporters with some of his comments and ads. Kerry seems to have the closest platform on domestic matters but the IWR vote may be a stumbling block for many. Gephardt has the trade issue but seems so 'establishment'. Edwards may very well be just too darned conservative. Where will they end up?


PS: please I hope we can discuss this without flaming. I personally have the utmost respect for DK and his supporters. So if you are tempted to respond to this thread with some flippant one-liner or put-down, please don't.

Sure thanks for addressing this in the manner which you did. I tell you if I had to choose another candiate today it would be Kerry. It really depends on the person honest, I would go Kerry as I said because hes an all around liberal and like DK solid positions on all around issues, though the IWR vote bothers me but I like him. Also, I am glad to see Kerry has made a recent surge in Iowa. Won't lie to you, I am pleased, Kerry has a great environmental record, veterans rights, etc, and has one of my favorite environmentalists supporting him. I dont know where most will go though.

I suspect that some will go with Dean dispite the antagonism, but more will go with Kerry. A smaller number might go with Gep, for the sake of labor.

But there will also be districts where Mosley-Braun and Sharpton supporters wind up making the same decisions, and they will, I suspect lend support to Kucinich.

Stock lots of coffee for the weekend,
RealP

... so he's my boy in Iowa. I'm guessing that he's Ani's "Untouchable Face."

great taste in music and cannidates :hi:

how DK will do it is hard to say what will happen. I have studied hard on who my 2nd place person should be. For some reason I am closest to Gep on my chart but I so dislike his stance on the Iraq war issue that he is really out for me. The next closest is Kerry. I believe I would support him (if I can't have DK I would gladly cast my vote to him). I have always felt closer to him when I listen to them speak. No way Dean, he is on the comparison chart only above Bush and is tied there with Clark. So, if I had to throw support it would be to Kerry but since I do not yet have to do this it really means little, just my thoughts. I do like Edwards but he is too conservative on some of my key issues but he sure sounds good when he is speaking.

as a Kerry supporter, I'd be zeroing in on the DK folks from the start to win them to my side. Gee, it actually sounds like a great and fun way to pick candidates, sometimes when I am doing poll watching I really wonder how informed the people I see voting really are. A caucus -- it sounds like raucous democracy in action.

Kerry supporters have made me like Kerry more, I must say, through like showing links what Kerry stands for and etc.

They have both fought the establishment all those years, in different ways and in similar ways. But, they DID fight, even at the risk of their careers, and in Kerry's case advocating for gays - his life.

I have never felt conflicted in supporting them both. They are both inspiring.

My heart and effort is still with DK but if he is not the nominee I am certainly hoping for JK. JK is someone I would get in and work for.

I personally however see Kerry being like Kennedy. Dennis has his own unique qualities, and of course Kerry does too.

I am getting ready to learn all about it! Personally I do not care for the idea as much as a primary vote but it just might be fun. I am busy gathering warm bodies for DK.

In WA state, that category counts as a candidate. I'll take that option if my precinct can't get a Kucinich delegate.

That will be my choice as well. If 15% are uncommitted, the uncommited group will be viable and a delegate will be sent to the next level. Uncommitteds can be delegates for any candidate they choose in the next round; another opportunity to be a delegate for Dennis!

-- a pretty brave campaign, but the media are not covering him fairly, if at all.

Your questions are good ones. I wish that the media would equally cover all our candidates. That alone would shift some of the results we've seen so far.

too bad though I really like him.

breaking into double digits would be a major story I agree. What if he gets 6-7-8? Will that be enough for some analysis or would it just be "and rounding out the field with 6% is Dennis Kucinich" ?

But after being at 3% in the polls (Which I don'ttake too seriously) a 6-8% mark in Iowa would be encouraging. I agree 10-12 would be a major story.

matching funds kicked in, and grassroots campaigns don't cost as much. the campaign volunteers will keep him in the race.

If anything unforseen happens & he does drop out, I will back the frontrunner.

and it was a fait acompli(sp?) I'd go with Kerry. Best environmental record.

for which I have no good answer.
I think everything is really fluid which may bode well for dark horse.
Obviously if DK places in top 4 its a major upset of some sort.
But 5th or 6th is much more realistic at this point.
7th would be a big disappointment.
Double digits would be a great showing.
Beating Clark would be helpful.
I saw a recent Iowa poll which had DK at 5%.
I trust he will caucus above that.
In the same poll 42% had no opinion of Dennis Kucinich,
for which I fault the media for purposefully ignoring him.

In precincts in which he is not viable I suspect many supporters will try to go viable as uncommitted before joining anothers camp. Otherwise folks probably splinter to the big four. I'd go Edwards.

Sharpton? probably

:shrug:

TWL

Since positive coverage depends upon the mainstream press, it is beyond your or my or the voters' control. Since Kucinich is taking position that resemble actual liberalism, assume that he can do no right in the eyes of the corporate media, whose agenda is of course hostile to him.

To your second question, my unqualified guess is that finishing in the top four will give him momentum.

http://www.nashuatelegraph.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20040116/NEWS08/40116017

The way Dennis Kucinich sees it, keeping his presidential campaign alive depends simply on staying alive himself.

“I will have exceeded the expectations of the media if on Jan. 27, I have a heartbeat,” the Ohio congressman said Thursday when asked what threshold he has set for the New Hampshire primary.

During an interview with The Associated Press, Kucinich rose from his chair and stepped over an imaginary line on the floor to illustrate how he will surmount the low bar most of the national media has set for his candidacy.

“I can just kind of walk over it, and say, ‘On to the next election,’ ” he said.

Stuck in single digits as the race tightens in Iowa and New Hampshire, Kucinich said his strategy is focused on slow, steady movement. He insists a nominee won’t emerge before the Democratic convention in July and that by then, he’ll have picked up enough delegates here and there to win.

“I’m not subject to the same laws of political physics that other campaigns are, where they have to maintain a momentum in order to keep going,” he said. “My time hasn’t come yet. Every candidate’s had their little day in the sun, but I haven’t been there yet. When I am, the whole dynamic will change in this election.”

<snip>

we may not know who comes in 5th to 8th – perhaps we may not even know who comes in 4th. When the dust settles it may be that only 3 candidates have over 15% (for instance 45,25,20 or 32,30,28).

It is my fervent hope that Congressman Kucinich can muster 15% but it looks at this point like a long shot. If he stays in the race for the long haul and makes it into Boston with a pocket full of delegates he may perhaps have an important effect on the final outcome. This is one reason that those who believe in his positions should support him even if they see it as unlikely that he can win.

so as long as a candidate has some caucuses where he gets 15%, he'll end up with something. If I understand it correctly.

Therefore DK will win delegates at individual caucuses with 15% and his delegate numbers get tallied as part of a statewide total. So he may get 3% or 5% or 10% of state delegates and that will be reported. We will know down to the lowest vote getter the turnout of the eight remaining if they win any delegates at all at the precinct level.

But in the case of those candidates who do not get at least 15% in every district there is no way to determine the percentage of total support because without 15% in the precinct the support is recorded as 0%.

Congressman Kucinich could have 10% of the support in every caucus and still get 0% of the delegates.

so naturally the strategy would be to concentrate resources and campaigning in districts where he has a shot at 15%. So I'm sure they've done that.

Sorry I didn't see it sooner.

As has already been asked and answered in this thread, the 15 percent viability test is at the precinct level, but statewide reported results will include the full range of rankings and proportions.

I'm doing all I can for Kucinich and may go Uncommitted if DK is not viable in my caucus. If I decide to stand with any candidate except Dennis, I would most comfortably join Kerry.

I'm still not venturing a prediction of DK's results, but expectations are so low that I consider it a safe bet to say he will exceed them!

I can't see Kucinich people going for people like Gephardt or Edwards. For many people, if DK isn't their first choice, Dean is. And vice-versa.

I assume CMB supporters will go Dean, due to the endorsement.

but most in my group who are ABB like kerry as their second choice because of his record and are wary of deans and there is a good chunk of DK supporters whos second choice is David Cobb (green party nom)

I'd go DK or undecided. I might be convinced to go with Kerry, but it would be damned hard for me to offer support to anyone but Kucinich.

I do think he can manage the 15% in enough caucuses to put in a surprise showing. Clearly this isn't going to be some sort of shocking State-wide sweep for him but I think it'll surprise a number of people.

Earlier today I said Clark and Kerry were tied as my second choice. John Kerry now holds that title alone. I agree completely with MuseRider, that as things have progressed, I can see myself actively supporting Kerry.