How does Edwards win the nomination?

If Edwards beats expectations and places a strong second or third in Iowa, how will this help him in NH, SC, and the other primaries?

Does he have a chance? How does he win the nomination?

Second in Iowa, Second or third in NH, wins South Carolina, wins other Southern/border primaries like Missouri (after Gep has dropped out) and Oklahoma. Then he needs to win a key non-southern state primary and he should probably concentrate on Wisconsin.

With the rest, people care about where they place, and their relative percentages won't matter.

With Edwards, I think his placing doesn't matter, but his polling numbers REALLY matter. I think people (big donors especially) will take note if he proves to be very good at converting a passive audience member to an active voter.

None of the other candidates have been able to do this. They've all been higher than they are now at early times. So they've picked up people and lost people. It shows that they don't really stir and HOLD the passions.

If Edwards simply picks up voters and doesn't lose them once they know him, people are going to notice.

And it is a very difficult one for him to pull off. Doing less that that leaves too many strong players still ahead of Edwards in the pack. He wouldn't have enough momentum to leap frog over them, since Edwards does not have the funding he needs for major TV advertising, nor does he have a large grass roots movement to compensate for that lack. With the possible exception of Gephardt, if Gep does not do well enough in Iowa, all of the men who finish ahead of Edwards in Iowa and New Hampshire will still be in the race.

I suppose Edwards could finish 3rd in Iowa and still be viable heading into NH, IF Edwards beats out Kerry and neither Gephardt nor Dean get much momentum out of their one two finishes. But if Clark finishes ahead of Edwards in NH I don't see how Edwards could regroup to compete well enough against Clark the following week, since Clark is already well ahead of Edwards everywhere other than SC, and Clark is beating him there also. In that particular scenario Edwards might have a chance if Clark won NH with Edwards a close second, since Edwards would still have surprising momentum (but so would Clark).

Coming in third or worse twice in both Iowa and NH I think would cripple Edwards. Better organized, better funded candidates, with better finishes in those states would be better positioned. I guess there is a long shot scenario Edwards taking 3rd in Iowa, then third in NH with Kerry and Dean taking the top two spots there that might still leave Edward's campaign breathing. But that scenario requires Clark to come in fourth, leaving Edwards as the stronger of the Southern candidates with Clark fading. I don't see that happening.

The only other route to an Edwards nomination I believe is the unlikely scenario of him being chosen by a brokered convention.

It would negate Clark's and Kerry's recent momentum, and make him into the front-runner, or the anti-Dean at the least.

He needs donors to pony up once they see that he is very good at converting a passive audience member into an active supporter.

So, fourth place, in IA is fine, so long as he tripples his poll numbers in IA over the previous week (and so long as he has astounding approval:disapproval;not familiar numbers).

Then he needs money flowing in afterwards, which buys more opportunities to sell himself to voters on a retail level, which translates to voters.

He just needs to stay alive beyond Super Tuesday, and be one of the last three or four standing.

Once the cameras turn to him, I really don't see how he can lose.

I suspect that one of the stories you're not hearing about is how top-level dems must be astounded by Edwards's surge in IA. He's delivering exactly what he promissed. They're going to notice that, once he has a platform, people REALLY respond to him.

:eyes:

Seriously though, if he gets momentum in Iowa, he will pick up extra support in NH. If Edward surprises in NH while Clark disappoints, this will be really good for South Carolina, which he has to win.

If he wins SC, he will have a good shot at both the February 10 primaries. Then, it will be a battle on Super Tuesday...

Clark's performance in NH is crucial: it could set Clark up for a win in SC, or it could open the door for Edwards to be come the major southern candidate ahead of Clark.

Conceivably, if Kerry and Clark and Dean are duking it out in New Hampshire, Edwards could pull ahead (much as he is in Iowa).

But he just hasn't been able to get the support that he needs in places like Arizona, Virginia, Tennessee, or ANY of the March 2nd states like California.

in terms of those states. If he does well he'll pick up that support.

Dismissing him now based on that logic makes as much sense as saying the Dem nominee in 2016 will lose because she doesnt' have enough support in CA and AZ. Nobody know who it's going to be, so of course she doesnt' have the support. But if she wins IA, NH and SC in 2016, she'll have the support in AZ and CA.

those states already which leads me to believe Edwards would be unlikely to narrow such an overwhelming gap in every other place besides south carolina really

And there's nothing that organizes support quite like inevitability. If Edwards were in first place after SC, people will come out fo the woodwork to support him.

Incidentally, the people whose support is most important are locally elected politicians. Notwithtanding endorsements, they will always get their people out to support the nominee. All those town councilpeople, all the alderpeople, and mayors and elected judges -- it will be those people who really start campaigning for Edwards. It's not the internet hooligans who will matter most at that point.

...if he wins Virginia or Tennessee?

watch what heppens and see for yourself. Things will change radically as there are so many undecideds. Same as is happening in Iowa, you saw that no lead is meanigful till the end there. Everyone else is looking for momentum or (sadly) press coverage.

Top or bottom, I don't know. But mark my words, he's on there.

I am expecting quite a surprise Monday night, from Iowa. John can still win it.

whoever it is that comes out of Iowa the best, his first name will be John. :)

Very good observation, I meant John Edwards, of course. But if the ticket contains Kerry and Edwards, the media will derisively call them "John-John". :eyes:

Always glad to see that NC avatar used. :D

Let's see... the John/John ticket basically contains two John F. Kennedies, in a way...

Kerry and Dean are the only ones that can compete moneywise because they are not restricted by federal matching funds.

And he could still run on CFR legitimitately (which he's actually doing).

Maybe TOO much of the wrong kind, but he can handle that. But if he wins Iowa, or is a close 2nd, his week is made: more photo-ops and guest spots than he can accept. This could be The Moment!! Hang on!