Polk county voter registration number crunching. It'll cheer you up!

As provided in this thread:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=1240331&mesg_id=1240331

REGISTERED VOTERS:

Democrat 125,867 (103,211 projected turnout)
Republican 115,211 (103,690 projected turnout)
NPA & Minor Parties 54,661 (27,877 projected turnout)
Total 295,739 (234,778 projected turnout, or 79.4 percent, 10 percent higher than 2000 and very likely given the high rate of registration and voting enthusiasm)

The Registered Voter numbers, which were verified with the Official Polk County Elections site (listed below) as being within a few hundred registrations, assumes the following:

1. The assumed 3 percent of remaining undecided voters will break for the challenger 2:1 -- This is not only likely, it is almost certain. This is the most bitter and partisan election in the history of the United States, and a campaign of vitriol, anger, fear, and posturing from an incumbent with a very poor first term record is highly unlikely to swing undecideds. This is not a case where they will go with "the devil they know" -- They will demand a change. History has shown this, and history will bear this out on Tuesday. The only question is, will it only be a 2:1 ratio, or will it be much higher. I'm betting it will be more like 3:1 or 4:1, but I'll stick with the historical precedent of 2:1 for purposes here, and round DOWN (helping Bush) whenever necessary.

2. Kerry will recieve 52 percent of independent vote, and Bush will get 47 (based on ARG latest poll + undecideds factor). Turnout for the Independent voter is set at 51 percent, a very, VERY conservative figure considering in the last extremely partisan election where a widely unpopular incumbent faced re-election (Bush's dad in '92) Independents turned out at 71 percent.

3. Kerry will recieve 94 percent of the Democratic vote, Bush will get 4, and turn out for the Democratic vote will be at 82 percent, a low number, but similar to previous elections. Indicators (standing in long lines, massive GOTV effort) are that the Democratic turnout will be much closer to 90 or even higher.

4. Bush will recieve 91 percent of the Republican vote, Kerry will get 8, and turn out for the Republican vote will at 86 percent, similar to 2000.

5. This whole setup assumes Michael Badnarik, the Libertarian candidate, will not be a factor. He very well could be, and in fact he is spending 500k in the closing days of the election in key states to try to grab votes, but he is far more likely to hurt Bush than Kerry. If he does damage, it will be to Bush, but for purposes here we will assume his efforts to be ineffectual.

Turnout projection numbers were taken from Chris Bowers Blog:

http://chris-bowers.mydd.com/story/2004/9/13/12835/0345

Note: I do not think Republican turnout will be higher than Democratic and I do not think Independents will turn out at 51 percent and only vote for Kerry at 52 percent, but remember, this is a scenario where we get to election day and we DO NOT get the kind of turnout we think we will get and Independents and Repubs DO NOT jump the sinking ship like we suspect many will.

Keep in mind also that George Bush CLEANED UP here in 2000, here are the numbers taken from the official Polk County site - http://www.polkelections.com

2000 VOTE TALLY:

George W Bush - 90,307
Al Gore - 75,204
Ralph Nader - 2059
Other - 1053


---------- And now your moment of zen ----------


Based on the previously stated numbers, here is the projected Polk County vote for 2004 Presidential Election, assuming the historical "2:1 for challenger" scenario, and accurate to within 0.1 percent.

2004 PROJECTED VOTER NUMBERS FOR POLK COUNTY FL

John F Kerry - 119,809 or %51.03
George W Bush - 111,588 or %47.53
Ralph Nader/Badnarik/Other - 3381 or %1.44

-------------------------------------------------

The bottone line: If we get out the vote, and undecideds break for the challenger as history has shown them to do, we win easily. The more people we get to vote, the more the margin of victory. If they don't, we must work even harder to get out the vote, but it will be very close if so. REMEMBER: This is just one county, and its one Bush won EASILY in 2000, so if it's a sign of what is coming to counties Bush did NOT win easily in 2000... Well, as someone said in another thread:

"People do not stand 2 hours in line to keep the status quo."

I did a lot of 'hard work' on this post, and I hope I've cheered up a few faces in the process, so GOTV and we win this thing on Tuesday!

:grouphug:

PS: If I made any mistakes, PLEASE POINT THEM OUT. I triple checked it but I'm not superman.

Professor 2

They call them 3rd party, I think. I did not realize there were that many here.

Thanks.

Lakeland is the largest in the county with between 80 and 100 thousand.

All the cities hit so hard by the hurricanes.

There are a lot of people with tarp roofs still. They have been told it may be a year or two years before their roofs can be fixed. Out of state roofers won't work here because workers' comp costs are too high. There are many with houses standing as disasters, and there is no one to repair.

I could go on and on. The girls who come to clean are homeless, literally. They and their kids were living in a rental home which the owner had not insured. They lost everything.

FEMA is temporarily giving them enough to stay in a motel room, but they really can not find a rental place anywhere. My husband and I have thought about offering them enough for a first month's payment. I don't know what to do, though. They are so lost, and the full impact has not hit.

Motels are full, hotels are full. Many have nowhere to go.

I think that and the flu vaccine will hurt a lot.

Professor 2

And their website claims 7.5 million people but I don't see how that is possible considering they've only got 300k registered voters...

Someone from down there help us out?

Because this is along the all-important I-4 corridor. It's this area of Florida that the pundrity says will decide Florida.

I will say one thing. We are very lucky to have the Elections Supervisor we have. Lori Edwards is organized, intelligent, non-partisan....we are just lucky.

? At the website?

On Edit:
This remark:
"And their website claims 7.5 million people but I don't see how that is possible considering they've only got 300k registered voters...

Someone from down there help us out?"

Location
Polk County is strategically located in the center of the Florida peninsula, about equal distance from the east and west coast and half way between the Georgia-Florida border and the Southern tip of the peninsula. Polk lies on the Interstate-4 corridor, 25 miles east of Tampa and 35 miles southwest of Orlando. As the geographic center of Florida, it is estimated that more than 7.5 million people reside within a 100 mile radius of Polk County. This is one of the largest concentrations of population in the southeast.

If those numbers hold, and if the trend towards the Miami numbers (huge early voter turnout towards Kerry) continue...it might be a great night after all...

BTW, Where is Polk County?

I'm up here in Alachua COunty (Gainesville) which is the small dot of blue in a sea of red in northcentral florida...

I'm voting on Nov. 2 (just like to go to the polling place on that day)...but I went by the Supervisor of Elections office on Saturday, and there was a HUGE, and I mean out the door down the street and around the block line...it was crazy...

Also, the post office guy on Saturday said that people were Express mailing in their absentee ballots because it was so important for them to get their votes in on time!!

:hi:

:hug:

:hug:

was quite red at that time. This is excellent news!

We have a great GOTV effort in Orange-how is the group in Polk? Should we send reinforcements if possible?