That they say both states are 50-50. Polls all over the place.
Bush needs both, Kerry only needs one of the states. So they say even though they have Bush with 286 electoroal votes, Kerry has a 75 percent chance of winning.
Look at the election scorecard at slate. This is also assuming Bush wins Iowa and New Mexico.
6. IF we had a FAIR election, that would be true....
But we have LePore and a whole army of black boxes to deal with.
I'm still skeptical that Florida will end up in Kerry's column: NOT because I think bush will get more votes, but because the republican mafia runs the Florida elections.
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