New ZOGBY state #s

article states these are the final #s (quote from article "In the final Reuters/Zogby polls") but posters state probably not



http://olympics.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=electionsNews&storyID=6681154

The state-by-state results: In Colorado, Bush led 49-47 percent; Florida, tied at 48 percent; Iowa, Kerry 50-45 percent; Michigan, Kerry 52-46 percent; Minnesota, Kerry 51-45 percent; New Mexico, Kerry 51-48 percent; Nevada, Bush 50-45 percent; Ohio, Bush 49-43 percent; Pennsylvania, Kerry 50-46; and Wisconsin, Kerry 51-45 percent.

I like our chances due to the early voting and the ground operation.

My daughter's working in the campaign HQ in Orlando and just called and said there are reports that early votes are being thrown out. I hope Kerry's lawyers are on the case.

It's too bad if we don't get Ohio, but if we can pull off Florida we should be set.

If Florida is too close to call it looks like this:

Kerry 264

Bush: 247

Whoever wins Florida wins.

You all are calculating as if every state that is alleged to be "red" will in fact go to Bush.

Many on the ground in some red states that are either solid red or "third-tier swingers" have been saying that our state will turn blue.

It could be Arizona. We've had a hell of a ground operation, and the raw registration numbers support the possibility of a Kerry win.

It could be Virginia. The Nation did an article recently assessing how Virginia could go blue.

It could be Arkansas. It could be Missouri. It could be Nevada or New Mexico or VW.

Any surprise red state gone blue would do it. It's not just ALL ABOUT FLORIDA.

I can't believe those numbers. Ohio is AT WORST a toss-up for Kerry.

If all predictions are correct except OH, and Kerry pulls out OH, then he wins the Presidency w/out FL

2 out of 3 for following 2 groups wins:

1.) OH, FL, PA and 2.) NM, WI, MN

This poll shows Kerry winning all states in group 2.) and PA in group 1.)

So Kerry win in either OH or FL is a win!

Why are his OH numbers always out of whack w/ everyone elses?

Too many new voters. Most will go for the challenger.

Is Zogby doing anything to account for first-time voters and the hyper-energized Democratic base in his LV selection?

If not, none of these numbers is accurate. If not, Kerry is almost certainly ahead in Ohio based on these numbers, and he's stompin' Bush in Florida.

Just wait until tomorrow.

him the numbers of lots of clients

he text messaged them, and 6000 responded; mostly young

98 percent said they were voting, and IIRC, it was a sixteen point Kerry edge!

this HAS to be on his site somewhere

I think it was on AAR that I heard it

didn't anyone else hear this? it was their Sunday election coverage show, and runs live

somebody out there to verify I wasn't dreaming?

This election is going to be like no other in recent memory. Think about where we are now as opposed to four years ago.

Bush(4 years) = 4(Demo GOTV)


I knew that algebra class would come in useful someday.

was getting too conservative. It would be nice to see the pendulum swing the other way for awhile. Then I might consider visiting Ohio again.

 Vote as if your life depended on it, because it does.

Call 866 687-8683
If Poll Workers refuse you to vote for any reason
If there is a late opening or early closing of a polling place.
If your polling place runs out of ballots or has an incorrect ballot
If you experience poll worker insensitivity or discrimination in the voting process

The civil rights community have set up a toll-free Election Day hotline. This line is
staffed now and, in addition to logging your complaint, the civil rights organizations have law
students and attorneys who can provide assistance on Election Day.

the hotline number is
866 687-8683
202 457-0473 fax

When you call the hotline, be prepared to give your name, telephone number, and note as many
details as possible, including the names of the people who are involved.

we still need something else...

others, if true. What would that make the electoral college count?

most of the other polling says so. We will win PA. And there is a good chance we will win FL.

Zogby's state polls have always seemed weird to me.

Where's a good place for us fellow Marylanders to go tomorrow?

Volunteer for ACT in Harrisburg or try and help pull out VA???

(I know this is random, it's just my blue state mentality)

If Kerry doesn't take Ohio, he will have to take Florida, which under normal conditions, is feasible. But with Jeb pulling the strings, anything could happen.

Nail-biting time.

has Kerry with a solid lead in OH.

There are zillions of polls around. This batch has Kerry doing well in all but one state. Other polls show Kerry ahead in OH (but doing less well in other states like NM). All in all, these are good numbers and reinforce my confidence in a Kerry win tomorrow.

Even some republicans are saying Kerry could win it.

This leaves on the electoral-vote.com spreadsheet New Hampshire (4 EV) and Florida (27 EV) as tied. With Kerry @ 256 EV and Bush @ 251 EV.

See the problem? If Zogby's numbers hold, this may mean that this race comes down to who wins Florida.....again. Oh no. A repeat? No way to recount this time, though, is there?

tomorrow, around noon

is this right? I heard it live on AAR, I think.

it was live, wherever it was, and he DID say there'd be a Tuesday poll, cause the host asked him specifically about that, implying that it might be somehow unfair to run a poll on election day

he was unconcerned about that

No other poll is anywhere close to his on Ohio that I have seen. But all in all the number don't look bad.

Zogby's Ohio numbers, on the password page, are dated October 24.

The new numbers come tomorrow.

Thats because it ain't over till we say its over.

from article:
"The polls of about 600 likely voters in each of the battleground states were taken Friday through Monday. "

Zogby had Kerry leading yesterday by 1...thats and 8pt. difference.

Look at those states again. The only 50% for Bush is Nevada.

The challenger traditionally can count on the poll numbers as his base, the incumbant can count on his poll numbers as his cap.

Bush is going major league down.

Bigtime.

All these poll numbers are only likely to be accurate if you accept all of the following assumptions:

1. The Democratic base is no more motivated than it has been in the last few elections.

2. The only people who are likely to vote in this election are people who have voted in past presidential elections.

3. Young people are no more motivated in this election than in past elections.

4. Blacks and hispanics are no more motivated in this election than in past elections.

5. GOTV efforts are no more forceful in this election than in past elections.

6. People who voted for Ralph Nader in the last election will vote for Ralph Nader in this election.

7. Undecided voters are just as likely to vote for Bush as they are for Kerry.

6. George Bush won the last election.


The LV assumptions behind these polls are all nonsense. Tomorrow is not going to be like any recent election.

Excuse me for yelling and being repetitive (if I am) but I am SO TIRED of people saying it comes down to one state. It comes down to all of us, not just one state. If enough of us don't vote in (pick a blue state) because Kerry is "supposed to win there", he doesn't. It comes down to state after state after state, person after person after person. Not just any 1 or 2 states. Get out and vote and make sure anyone that says "only Florida is important" gets out and votes too.

ohio is that big of a lead for bush.