Iowa Electronic Markets moving

Total Kerry has move above total Bush for (I believe) the first time.


http://128.255.244.60/quotes/78.html

Drudge's isobar graphic when he predicted a major winter storm for tomorrow.

Care to translate??

The more folks expect an event to happen the more likely it will happen...

Think of it as the price for a $1 share of the candidate. A higher price offered for that $1 share indicates a greater degree of certainty. Would you pay 36 cents to earn $1 if Kerry wins? That's the current offer expressed in the chart in the original post.

(The market actuall offers two different types of options on each candidate. The L52 indicates a win with less than 52% of the vote. G52 indicates a win with greater than 52% of the vote. You can see why one would be cheaper than the other.)

They bid on which outcome is most likely.

Bush winning with more than 52%
Bush winning with less than 52%
Kerry winning with less than 52%
Kerry winning with more than 52%

I haven't followed it that closely this year, but I believe Bush has led all year. Within the last hour the total of Kerry winning has moved over 50%. These are people staking real money on the outcome and it's moving in one direction.

Look in the column called "Last". That is the last available quoute.

Basically, it is saying that 14% are betting that Kerry will get at least 52.0% of the two-party vote and 38% are betting that Kerry will get between 50.0% and 51.9% of the two party vote.

So, 52% (14% plus 38%) are betting on a Kerry win.

It had been around 40% last week.

They know Kerry and Bush* are essentially tied in the polls...


They also know these polls underpoll Dems....


They also know undecideds break for the challenger....


They also know that Dems do well in presidential elections because of get out the vote efforts....


Dear God, I don't ask much from you please let them be right... This is the last material thing I'll ask from you...

Elsewhere. Worried the odds would move toward Kerry today.

Please give me your state of the race...

That's basically unchanged over the past few days. But at +.6 or +.7 net needed to theoretically lock up the electoral college, it's not as much margin for error as it appears.

My friends across the country who I respect the most are more convinced of a Kerry win than I am. They were dead on in 2002, forecasting GOP gains. I posted their consensus on DU and was flamed for it.

No brainstorms from me. Like 2000, I think we will win Michigan and Pennsylvania by greater margin than is generally forecast. I have more faith in winning Florida than Ohio, although that bucks conventional wisdom. The Diebold machines in the big Dem Florida counties should actually help us, not hinder. I think Oregon will be closer than we want to believe.

The upper midwestern states plus New Mexico and Nevada are the toughest calls. I had to pick them for a 16 man election pool I'm in, and really don't want to reveal those projections since my competitors read DU and the final picks don't have to be in for 6 more hours. BTW guys, especially Grayson and Denny, I may be lying above:)

Yesterday you asked about party identification. After 9/11 I subjectively gave the GOP a 1% net gain. That accounts for my Excel model +2-2.5 for Dems, not 3.5%. I probably should have researched further. Found some interesting stuff last night. I still think it's more fluid than absolute and Dems will come home to natural tendencies in a presidential atmosphere. My friend who studies it very close insists some independents switched to GOP after 9/11, but the huge numbers of newly registered indpependents include a good 10% who are really very Dem leaning but unwilling to designate it. He says that explains why Kerry is doing better among indies than Gore did.

Here are links regarding party identification theory. The first one, from PEW, breaks it down by category, very interesting. I put the one from Free Republic appropriately at the bottom. It looks at the polls from perhaps May to mid September. Interesting that Gallup indicated a jump from 32 to 40 GOP identification for no apparent reason from May to July. Others showed a sensible short term GOP rise in early September, after the Republican convention.:

http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?PageID=750

http://wampum.wabanaki.net/archives/001288.html

http://www.mydd.com/story/2004/9/18/454/00913#readmore

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1222964/posts#1

Awsie...


I looked at the freeper link...


The breakdown of percentages of the popular vote controlling for party from the 00 exit polls is almsost exactly the same as the results by party in WAPO's final 04 poll...

Bush* + 82 among Pugs

Kerrry + 75 among Dems


The big difference this year is Kerry is winning indys by about seven or eight perecent...

If you weight those results by party you have a nice Kerry lead...Bigger than yours


What am I missing?

Some are subjective. I am admittedly cautious, so I don't go overboard and make a stupid large wager based on what I want to happen, not what's likely to happen. It's very difficult not to let your bias influence the numbers you insert in the model.

I downgrade Kerry's numbers based on likeability concerns. That is a large chunk of the lost advantage.

Also, I project much closer in California than 2000, and that's such a high populus state it cuts into the national number.

They mirror the nation to such a high degree I'm not really concerned about them. Nevada is a few points GOP but the others basically 50/50 partisanship.

If Kerry wins nationally he should take those states. If he loses the national popular vote, he won't.

I bought Kerry when the markets first opened 18 months ago, and bought more when he was left for dead.

:^{)

It was still available even while Kerry was kicking Bush's ass that night. But I was hosting a debate party and didn't leave for 5 minutes. That would have been far more profitable than rude, if Kerry wins.

Wow, if you bought Kerry before the primaries and when he was lagging behind Dean in the polls, those odds must be sweet!

DEM04_L52 pays $1 if Kerry wins with under 52% of the popular vote, DEM04_G52 is the same but with over 52%.

Look at the "Last" column for the last trade prices. People are demanding and are willing to pay more for a contract that pays off if Kerry wins than for one backed by Bush, 38c vs 36c for the under-52% contracts. Same for the "landslide" contracts, 14c vs 12c.


Symbol Bid Ask Last Low High Average
DEM04_G52 0.135 0.138 0.139 0.131 0.159 0.147
DEM04_L52 0.368 0.376 0.377 0.300 0.400 0.337
REP04_L52 0.360 0.372 0.360 0.309 0.373 0.338
REP04_G52 0.119 0.124 0.120 0.100 0.239 0.172

Watch the trend. Bush has been at 55+ for some time. The movement is significant now. These are people with real money on the line, with nothing to gain by spinning. It's been moving our way for at least two hours. They know.

for passing when I could have bought a $1 share of Kerry for 17 cents. Stupid, stupid, stupid.

I'm mathematiccaly challenged, but I finally get it.

This is great!!