About how elections behave late (Why there's so much optimism)

Since Bush is ahead in most polls they show on TV the optimism here might seem like delusional partisan happy talk to some skeptical DUers. It's not delusional. Everything is happening exactly as it is supposed to happen when a challenger deposes an incumbent.

Momentum matters. The Republicans surged late in 1980 and 1994 and 2002. Everybody on TV continued to pretend things were tight, but they knew (or should have known) that late sharp moves meant that the Republicans were going to blow it all open on election day.

Races that end tied in the polls are almost never close in the voting booth. One guy gets the late move and wins easily. Close votes happen when the late polls show a small lead and the underdog gets the late move. (2000 was a textbook example)

Almost all elections move in the last 48 hours. Usually nobody cares because the late move is not decisive. In 1996 Bob Dole closed as hard on Clinton just like Reagan closed on Carter or Humphrey closed on Nixon in 1968, but nobody cared because it wasn't going to be enough to decide anything in 1996. Clinton was too far ahead.

Late moves are not random fluctuations. They show up in almost ALL polls at the same time, but usually as only a fraction of what they will be on election day.

Here's a good example of what has actually happened in the last few days: Fox News Polls last five days - Bush+7, Bush+5, Bush+2, EVEN, Kerry+2

That same general directional trend is seen in every poll. Kerry is closer than he was a few days ago.

If Kerry had dipped in all the polls over the weekend it would have been over. Kaput! The polls would still be "too close to call" but everyone would know it was over. But Kerry didn't dip, he rose. And that means it's over for Bush. Kerry will definitely win assuming GOTV efforts are as vigorous as we hope. That's a flat scientific fact.

Kerry won the campaign part of the process. Now all we have to do is cash in the ticket tonight and tomorrow.

If you are refering to those one point leads among likely voters, spare me.

The case has been made, now its all about swinging the momentum, which is breaking toward us. Kerry will win.

I think many of us forget that the average person rarely thinks about politics, even during a Presidential race, and when he or she does start thinking, it's pretty late in the race when it happens. Face it, those of us who follow DU and the blogs and the news with a religious zeal, we're political junkies. We had our minds made up months and in many cases years ago. A great number of people, even people who answered one way or the other in a poll at some point, didn't make any firm decision until today, and a few won't make that decision until tomorrow in the voting booth. Momentum matters very much in this. People want to back a winner, and if a candidate appears to be surging, they'll back him.

An amazing thing happened today while I was leaving work. A spontaneous discussion about politics erupted. We're not supposed to push candidates or political positions while at work, but we were off the clock and on our way home. We spent the next half our going over our positions, making our cases, making sure we'd said our piece. I won't lie and say everyone was for Kerry. But a couple people who thought it would be stupid to vote for Kerry left this evening realizing a lot of pretty smart people thought otherwise. I could see in a couple pairs of eyes that their thoughts were wavering. They'd simply never considered another position but the one that seemed most popular, based on local polls. I'd bet the Kerry crowd captured a few votes. There was no wavering among us.

Most of politics is about people wanting to be in a community with certain shared values. You're dead on about the interpersonal