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I posted the story on the LBN forum, but here are more details: State Details
NOV. 1 Poll Results State...Bush.....Kerry.....Nader
AR......50.1.....46.9......0.5 FL......47.0.....48.0......N/A IA......44.0.....50.0......N/A MI......45.0.....52.0......N/A MN......47.0.....49.0......N/A MO......51.4.....47.2......0.7 NV......50.0.....45.0......N/A NH......45.7.....50.2......1.0 NM......49.0.....49.0......N/A OH......48.0.....44.0......N/A OR......43.8.....53.9......0.5 PA......45.0.....50.0......N/A TN......50.4.....47.1......0.4 WA......43.4.....54.6......0.3 WV......50.1.....45.6......0.2 WI......44.0.....51.0......N/A
The latest poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 28-31 and online Oct. 25-30 (for more information, please click the Methodology tab). Presuming that all the states are won by the current leading candidates and that the other 34 states -- and the District of Columbia -- go as they did in the 2000 election, which isn't guaranteed, Mr. Kerry would get 286 electoral votes and Mr. Bush would get 247. This analysis doesn't include New Mexico, which shows up as a tie in the latest poll, but the state's five electoral votes wouldn't sway the final result of the election in this scenario.
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