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Edited on Mon Nov-01-04 10:30 PM by Perky
I am a nut for data.
Basically I am taking all the states within 6 pts averaging the last ten polls from each as published on Electoral-vote.com. so I have been averaging the most recent 180 poll snapshot for the last three weeks.
What I have noted is that while there is not much momentum for either...Kerry has closed som very small gaps withing the MOE to virtually nothing. I place 196 EVs in the BG category.. From Oregon to Virgina
I am actually pretty confident of a 300 EV win for JFK
Mostly becasu high turnouts, high African American turnout, enthusiastic new voters, the 60/40 split for the challengers by last minute deciders and the fact that those with cell phones don't get polled.
My prediction is that Kerry winns PA,OH, FL, WI, MN while W wins Iowa.
The big suprise of the night: Virginia will be a blue state barely.
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