The chances are one in a thousand that Bush can win a fair election

The chances are one in a thousand that Bush can win a fair election.

Bush is at 46% in the national averages. The 50% Rule says he’s toast.



Kerry’s win probability is approaching 100% as his expected electoral vote total nears 340.



Kerry’s projected winning margin is more than three percentage points.



If Kerry gets 75% of the undecided vote, it’s a mini-landslide of over 330 electoral votes.



Kerry is surging in the states that count: the battleground



Kerry’s win probabilities in the battleground states approach 100% as he opens up 6-8% leads.



Kerry has pulled ahead the national independent poll group average.



The Bush media are calling it a dead heat. They’ll continue to do so AFTER Kerry wins the election.



Bush job approval is at 48.50%, not good for an incumbent



The more polls that are averaged in a group average, the smaller the margin of error.



The Monte Carlo method simulates 5000 election trials. So the probability of a Kerry win is just
the number of trial wins divided by 5000. Right now it’s at 99.9%.



EV simulation outcomes are normally distributed around Kerry’s mean (expected) electoral vote. .







Interested in the latest polling results? Want an introduction to the methodology?
Then go here.
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

I just checked out , and I know that it doesn't really have a consistent methodology, but it has gone from red to blue in 48 hours (probably because Zogby just released a slew of polls).

Kerry is surging, I can feel it in my bones:bounce::D

... and here you are with your dose of good vibes. Thanks!

tia

:)

It's still very close... we need every vote.

If you are going to use data, you have to be consistent. Set up an hypothesis, and support it, or declare that the data does not support it. Most polls are within the margin of error, so the hypothesis of either candidate winning is neither supported nor denied.

The statement about "approaching 100%" probability is the sign of someone who doesn't know what he/she is talking about... unless it's meant as some kind of rallying cry, rather than as a conclusion from the data.