I thought Battleground was off by 5% in 2000?

tritsofme

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Tue Nov-02-04 02:34 AM
Original message

I thought Battleground was off by 5% in 2000?

But here they say they predicted Bush 49% Gore 47% Nader 3%

http://www.tarrance.com/files/Tarrance-Group-Projection.pdf

Did they just make that up?

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stldemocrat

(296 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Tue Nov-02-04 02:37 AM
Response to Original message

1. Well, just add 5

I am sure it will be Kerry 55, * 45 (without Nadir).

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pabloseb

(510 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Tue Nov-02-04 02:38 AM
Response to Original message

2. Even if they nailed 10 times

That doesn't mean much about the eleventh. Besides all the problems and innacuracies in the model, there's random statistical noise which is just there... you can't get away from it unless you poll 100,000 people. If you nail it a few times that just means you were lucky. It doesn't predict future behaviour.

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Tue Apr 30th 2024, 11:27 AM
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