Exit polls snapshot (2:00 pm) Not Bad !!

........AZ CO LA PA OH FL MI NM MN WI IA NH
Kerry 45 48 42 60 52 51 51 50 58 52 49 57
Bush 55 51 57 40 48 48 47 48 40 43 49 41



www.dailykos.com

But it is still early.

.

:mad:

'nuff said.

And the "good Christian white folk" that are backing a proposition that is racist in it's nature.

Proposition 200 would deny services/benefits to any one, who isn't lily white, and would allow workers from hospital ER's, case workers, and some suspect even fire and police officers, to be arrested if thet failed to report that they treated someone who may not be an American citizen.

This law would also cost tax payers money to see that it's enforced.

Edit: I'm a Christian and I'm not white, but I am definitely an American.

This is why I hate exit polls

.. as the West is a few hours behind.

according to Drudge,

I know, don't kill the messanger (me)

so then you can kill him,just not me

...tradesports haven't gotten the word of that demographic spread. LOL

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/041102/2000a541d929affeef57a53a15995353_1.html

.. but per a "birdie" -- the PA and MN numbers are off, and they are actually much closer.

The GOOD news is that the numbers for FL and OH are consistent with internals.


again -- per a birdie who heard from a campaign birdie -- so taken with a grain of Rock Salt.

I'm trying not to get excited about this....I know these polls are unreliable, but I want to let my energy out.

Guess I'll wait for the election party I'm going to tonight.

:bounce:

Harris and Zogby state-by-state predictions.

If Kerry takes Mich, Ohio, Penn, Florida, Wis, and Minn, as he's doing here, it's over.

Bush is toast.



Free at last, free at last, thank God a'mighty, we're free at last!

As long as votes are counted. And she's not usually a font of positivity! :bounce: :bounce:

trait for any talk radio host - liberal or conservative!

Please verify this. I thought if we lost the two we'd be in trouble.

311-41 = 270

This is the exact same prediction as the Meta-Analysis of State Polls conducted by election.princeton.edu

"With undecided voters assigned. Undecided voters typically end up voting against the incumbent. In previous presidential races this has given a 2.5 ± 2.0% advantage to the challenger. I currently estimate that 3.0% of voters are undecided. A 3-1 Kerry-Bush split gives a +1.5% net advantage to Kerry. This leads to a median EV estimate: counting undecided voters, Kerry 283 EV, Bush 255 EV, and a nominal Kerry win probability of 73%, or 3-1 in Kerry's favor.

Turnout estimates and other corrections. The principal factor not measured by polls is turnout. Pollsters ask respondents questions to determine if they are likely to vote. However, this cannot capture efforts by voter turnout organizations. In addition, newly registered voters have no track record. Finally, telephone polls may not accurately sample the voting population. I estimate that these factors sum to an advantage in battleground states of 2 to 3% for Kerry. As I am sure you are all aware, this number cannot be known with certainty. With that caveat in mind, I use +1.5% as my turnout figure (see discussion at top of page). Combined with the +1.5% undecided allocation this makes a +3.0% bias as plugged into the MATLAB script. This leads to my final prediction. Predicted electoral outcome (11/1/2004 11:00pm EST): Kerry 311 EV, Bush 227 EV, nominal Kerry win probability 98%"

I know we are gettin 316. :7

Skinner changed the rule to allow for it.

:beer:

I just like putting my name next to yours, Ima!

favored Kerry?