Can't post exit polls - but GOP has not taken early lead like they usually

papau

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Tue Nov-02-04 03:28 PM
Original message

Can't post exit polls - but GOP has not taken early lead like they usually

Do! :-) But these are more just raw numbers rather than a "poll" - and in 2000, the early exits were way off:
Gore EE Margin Final Result
FL +3 tied
MI -5 +5
MN -8 +2
OH +3 -3

From some of the early NEP (http://www.exit-poll.net/faq.html) - the new VNS - data, fwiw (For What It's Worth)-Dems "lead" in PA OH FL MI NM MN WI IA NH - and tie in IA - - - but this means little as you can see from the 2000 results, and reflects perhaps the ones most wanting to vote

It will be interesting to see how many of the Take Away From Red states actually change from Red to Blue - CO -VA -AR -WV - NH, OH, and FL.

On the other hand early turnout in New Mexico per the TV is weak???

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nothingshocksmeanymore

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Tue Nov-02-04 03:29 PM
Response to Original message

1. They changed the policy..you CAN post exit polls now

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Goldmund

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Tue Nov-02-04 03:29 PM
Response to Original message

2. We CAN post exit polls

We had a discussion about it and the Admins decided to allow them.

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DeminDC

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Tue Nov-02-04 03:32 PM
Response to Original message

3. I don't buy the logic

The Bush base is said to be more unified than Kerry's, so why would the election trend toward Bush as voting progresses? Plus, undecided voters, who may be more hesitant, break for Kerry.

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papau

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Tue Nov-02-04 03:38 PM
Response to Reply #3

4. The 2000 results went both ways between the 3pm and final results.

But mostly early GOP lead dies out.

Today its an early Dem lead in many, many places!

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papau

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Tue Nov-02-04 03:45 PM
Response to Original message

5. OK - exit poll thread is now at link below!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x1277617

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