EXIT POLLS: What You Should Know...

November 02, 2004
Exit Polls: What You Should Know

So sometime very soon, the traffic on certain web sites will hit astronomically high levels as the blogosphere goes in search of the latest leaked exit polls. The conventional wisdom on this is unshakable: The networks "know" who will win, but won't tell us. Lets take our own peek at results shared by those working at the networks today and get in on the secret.

Well, I hate to disappoint, but this site will not be a source of leaked "exits." However, I would like to take a moment and give you a bit of a reality check. Let me tell you a bit about what exit polls are and why you may want to take what you hear over the web with a giant grain of salt.

I have always been a fan of exit polls. Despite the occasional controversies, exit polls remain among the most sophisticated and reliable political surveys available. They will offer an unparalleled look at today's voters in a way that would be impossible without quality survey data. Having said that, they are still just random sample surveys, possessing the usual limitations plus some that are unique to exit polling (I also remain dubious about weighting telephone surveys to match them, but that is another story for another day)...

http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/2004/11/exit_polls_what.html

Let's always remember THIS:

If a favorable exit poll convinces people to skip voting, that exit poll is 100% GUARANTEED to be wrong. Skipping voting due to exit polls is like not bothering to buy a lottery ticket because someone has told you you're going to win the lottery. It doesn't make sense. You CAN'T win if you don't PLAY.

Exit polls can be a self-negating prophecy. If they are a source of encouragement, great, but they are BY NO MEANS a substitute for voting.

If the lines are long, there's always a wall to lean against. We can't afford to lose ONE VOTE for ANY reason.

Kerry in a land... well, you know the rest. :)

(NOTE: I think it would be a good idea to paste this message into EVERY exit poll thread. If you like, feel free to cut and paste this entire text in case I miss any exit poll threads or leave the keyboard. Thanks.)

like the networks will be reporting exit polls, most people aren't going to see them unless they seek them out online. So while I don't think that say, the VNS number of Pennsylvania (60-40 Kerry) will hold up, I don't think they will reach enough people to make an impact. Those who havent' voted yet are still angry and aren't just going to not vote.

I do agree with your overall statement, though, because it DOES apply this year to places like DU

a substitute for VOTING!

it's the one way to keep things in check. If a state's exit polling is way way off from the real results it reveals the shady crap going on.

will exit pollsters have to poll the early-voting?