Kerry winning Exit Polls - FRAUD LOOKS PROBABLE

EDIT:

Analysis of the polling data vs actual data and voting systems supports the hypothesis that evoting may be to blame in the discrepancies. Nevada has evoting but with verified receipts. In that state the Exit Polling matches the actual results within .1% accuracy. However for other swing states Bush has unexplainable leads.

I'm still compiling data. Please help me determine what voting methods are being used in swing states and which are evoting without audit trails. Post your data under the individual state responses below.

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Kerry is well ahead in exit polls, but still losing the counts. WTH is going on?

Kerry is well ahead in Exit Polling in Ohio. We're being screwed.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/OH/P/00/index.html

Male: 51/49 Kerry 47%
Female: 53/47 Kerry 53%

Dem: 91/8 Kerry 38%
Rep: 94/6 Bush 37%
Ind: 60/39 Kerry 24%



Here is exit polling for Florida (3,824,794 votes for Kerry & Bush)

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/FL/P/00/index.html

Male: 52/47 Kerry 46%
Female: 52/48 Kerry 54%

Dem: 86/13 Kerry 38%
Rep: 92/7 Bush 39%
Ind: 60/38 Kerry 23%

3,824,794 votes for Kerry & Bush
2065388 Women (54% of total)
1759405 Men (46% of total)

Bush leads male vote by 5% of M = 87970

Kerry leads female vote by 4% of M = 82615

That means Bush is ahead by just 5355 votes in exit polling in FL.

Another odd thing is that there are more Reps then Dems in Florida by 1%, which is not expected. Either there are more voting Republicans in FL than Democrats, a first and not matching known statistics, or more Republicans were exit polled than Democrats. If the exit poll is off by just 1% that's a difference of 382479 more voters who are Democracts.

The results being posted however show Bush ahead 326,000 actual votes. This is simply not possible from the exit polling numbers. Even skewed for a 5% higher Republican vs. Democrat turnout from 2000, it doesn't add up.


WISCONSIN:

Kerry leads Female voters by 7%, Bush leads male voters by 7%. Male vs. Female voter turnout is 47% M, 53% F. That means Kerry statistically has a 7% edge in exit polling in Wisconsin.

Actual results however show Bush ahead by 1%, an unexplained difference of 8%.

NEVADA:

Just checked, same pattern. Kerry leads in the exit polls by a clear margin, but is still behind in the reported results. This state is even closer. Actual is just 1% favor of Bush. Exit polls show Kerry with a wider margin. Women favored Kerry by 8% here out of 52% of total voters. Men favored Bush by just 6% out of 48% of total voters. Actual reported results don't match exit polling AT ALL in Nevada.

*** KERRY leads by 1.3% in exit polls in NV ***



Can someone determine what percentage of precincts are DIEBOLD or electronic voting machines in these swing states? Of those compare the expected voting results from Male vs. Female against the results reported by electronic vs. non-electronic voting places.

My HYPOTHESIS is we will find a discrepancy in the electronic systems vs. the exit polls and the non-electronic systems.

I ran CNN's own numbers. It's impossible. Between the two screen shots below, exactly 57 more persons were polled. If every single one of them were female, and every single one of them voted for Bush, that would account for a 2.3% increase in the exit polling results for female voters. However, CNN shows a 6% increase for Female voters supporting Bush.

CNN has altered other exit polling data since I began tracking it and compiling evidence against the EVoting machines.

Thanks to DU member EarlG for grabbing these screen shots!



Kerry up 2 among men, up 6 among women.

At 1:41am they changed the results to favor Bush:

Sorry, too tired.... ;-)

This was not just CNN. They must of been getting a shared feed. Apparently there are six major news networks that collected and shared polling data from last nights election.

I checked MSNBC and they have the same modified data for OH that we took screen shots of late last night.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5297182/

I need help from DU to spread the word to the media.

http://cnnstudentnews.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/11/01/campaign.legal.ap/

"Also Monday, The Associated Press and television networks sued Ohio's top election official, Republican Secretary of State Kenneth Blackwell, over a recent order banning exit polling within 100 feet of a polling station. The media groups use exit polls, or voter questionnaires, to help explain who voted and why."

There's another story today about the Bush administration commenting on Exit Polling being unreliable in swing states. I heard it on the radio and need to find a printed source.

It's not just the CNN site.

Wherever they got their exit polling data from was changed underneath us late last night.

The MSNBC site has the same data for Ohio exit polls which we have screen shots for.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5297182/

I cannot do any further state by state analysis on the exit poll data as I can no longer trust any of it is reliable. We will have to use the snap shots we had as of last night. If others have screen shots of exit poll results we can try to go from those, or possibly from news broadcasts that reported results last night as they came in.

217.8 million
Number of voting-age U.S. residents. Of this number, 153.9 million were single-race non-Hispanic white, 26.4 million were black, 26.3 million Hispanic, 10.0 million Asian, 3.0 million American Indian or Alaska native and 647,000 native Hawaiian or other Pacific islander. (A portion of all these residents are ineligible to vote because they are noncitizens.)
<http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/archives/race/001839.html>

California had the highest number of residents 18 and older (26.1 million) in 2003, followed by Texas (15.9 million), New York (14.7 million), Florida (13.1 million) and Pennsylvania (9.5 million). <http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/archives/population/001703.html>

California added the highest number of voting-age persons since 2000 (1.4 million), followed by Texas (913,000), Florida (759,000), and Georgia and New York (371,000 each). Nationally, 8.6 million adult residents were added.
<http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/archives/population/001703.html>

Part of the discrepancy lies with absentee and provisional ballots, which are much higher this year. Provisional ballots are also much more likely not to be counted.

------------

Driven by an intense race for the presidency, a greater percentage of Americans voted Tuesday than at any time in more than three decades.

Figures tabulated Wednesday by The Associated Press showed that 114.3 million people had voted with 99 percent of precincts reporting. However, about 120 million people cast ballots, including 5.5 million to 6 million absentee and provisional ballots yet to be counted, said Curtis Gans, director of the nonpartisan Committee for the Study of the American Electorate.

Steven Freeman PhD, took the analysis and ran with it!

http://www.buzzflash.com/alerts/04/11/The_unexplained_exit_poll_discrepancy_v00k.pdf

We will win Ohio.

If they do, I'll take this statement back.

We have already won it. All they have to do is count the damn votes. Let them do their jobs.

can be fixed, even if we aren't using diebold.

that's why we need a RECOUNT in Ohio.

A confirmation from a DU'er here would be great. According to this story they used AccuPoll which create voter-verified paper trails. This would be the 2nd swing state with paper trails where the exit polls match the actual results. 2 for 2 results.

June 10, 2004


With all the DU'ers here, I cannot believe one of us is not from Ohio. Lets get some up to date info from the ground!

http://www.fcw.com/geb/articles/2004/0607/web-accupoll-...

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Ohio state officials have certified touch-screen voting machines from AccuPoll Inc. for use in the state. AccuPoll's machines create a voter-verified paper record.

Such paper records are at the heart of the debate over touch-screen machines, formally called Direct Recording Electronic (DRE) machines. Other vendors do not offer the feature unless election officials specifically request it. Critics of electronic voting say that fraud or errors in the machine's recording of votes could go undetected without an external record that could be used to audit results.

"This is a significant event because Ohio has been on the forefront of the debate," said Frank Wiebe, president of AccuPoll, in a statement. Ohio recently passed a law requiring the paper trail, he added.

If I remember correctly, this law was set to take effect in 2006. Similar situation with California, which banned Diebold systems, but only for after THIS election.

There are nearly hundreds of thousands of DU members.

Some of you MUST be from Ohio?!!!

Help us out, confirm or deny whether audit trials were turned on for EVoting.

If there are no audit trials, the Bush camp must answer for the 5% discrepancy in those states between exit polls and observed voting results.

EVERY SINGLE STATE with audit trials showed the same results in exit polling as they showed in actual results.

EVERY SINGLE STATE without audit trails appears skewed by a similar amount in favor of Bush.

The big question remaining is whether Ohio was one of those states. Ohio exit polls do match up, but that doesn't mean it is not suspect like the others. If they had no audit trails, then it's extremely suspect.

earlier this year, 8 counties started a lawsuit to prevent getting electronic machines in their counties. And Diebold's home county wouldn't use Diebold machines (I can't remember the cty--(Franklin?) I've lived in Ohio all my life, but if Bush pulls this crap off, I don't think the things that kept me here will matter anymore. Canada is looking better and better.

But I'm not sure. My county had punch cards.

Not even any exit pollers within 100 feet.

w/no paper trail - santa Clara County

... and I voted on a punchcard.

does anyone have stories (ie callers telling voters that election day was postponed, destruction of registrations, etc.)?

We have thousands of those archived in a seperate forum. There are other websites with databases as well.

and you can tell the pollster whatever you want.

Votes don't lie, so they are what counts

Check the results. I'm adding them up, and more and more the hypothesis is being proven correct.

If the voting system has paper trails, the exit polls match the results.

If the voting system is electronic without secured audit trails, Bush has a large and unexplainable gain over Kerry in posted results.

I ask DU members to help me collect more info. Find out what states have audit trails on their voting vs. those that do not, and lets get to the bottom of this mess.

ala the hanging chads to vote.

1/3 of the U.S. is voting electronic.

OH however is reported to be using AccuPoll in the other 1/3. Whether the paper audit trails for e-ballots are being used in OH I don't know.

We need to confirm this.

Exit polls appear to sync up in Ohio. However if 1/3 are EVote and that was skewed, it could easily be buried in the 2/3 who voted manually and exit polled stronger for Kerry. The race is close enough that skewing a small percentage of the EVote would be enough to tip this for Bush.

n/t

does it always skew in the same directions. Dems are nice cooperative people and Repubs want to screw pollsters?

I don't think so. Lying and not responding would be randomized like everything else.

In every state with EVoting that legislated for paper audit trails, or in the case of Maine where they have no EVoting systems, you see the exit polling results matching the precinct reporting results exactly.

Are the citizens of all these states brutally honest after voting, but all the other EVoting states w/o audit trails are lying to skew the results?

The common factor here is the EVoting system w/o the presence of audit trials.

I modeled five states where the exit polls matched exactly with the reported election results for the precincts. Nevada, New Hampshire, Illinois, and Maine. The first three have paper audit trails on their EVoting systems, the fourth, Maine, doesn't use any EVoting machines.


This morning I checked CA and the edit polls match the posted election results. I question the AP data being used now however based on the screen shots we took last night that show the exit polling data being changed out from under us.

I'm telling you...

That's what they're doing. Bev Harris has said that NO ONE should concede anything until the electronic voting machines have been checked.

And don't forget -- Kerry has about a $24 MILLION nest egg to litigate ballot crime.

The religious fundies turned out like crazy to ban gay marriage.

38% Democrats, 39% Republicans, 23% Independents

That's what the exit polling breakdown showed us. It's slanted (R) for some reason. Assuming those are the zealots, you still cannot account for the observed results. Bush cannot possibly be ahead by 326,000 votes based on the observed exit polls.

The next 4 years will be a hoot if Bubble Boy prevails. He's got to fix all the disasters in America and the World he has created. LOL LOL.

America will be crying out for change in 2 years....we will be back stronger than ever.

Can someone determine what percentage of precincts are DIEBOLD or electronic voting machines in these swing states? Of those compare the expected voting results from Male vs. Female against the results reported by electronic vs. non-electronic voting places.

My HYPOTHESIS is we will find a discrepancy in the electronic systems vs. the exit polls and the non-electronic systems.

Please add statistics on which precincts are electronic voting systems and the observed results of Male vs. Female voters reported by those systems. I want to contrast them vs. non-electronic precincts and the exit polls.

Please report what type of voting system your precinct used in this thread. If you observed anything unusual in the exit polling, mention it as well.

will go to kerry, I am sure.

Exit polls show Kerry up by 8% in Michigan.

Actual results show Bush trailing by 3%.

Across the board women are voting for Kerry far more than men vote for Bush, and turnout is higher among women.

Kerry leads exit polls by 2.8% in Illinois.

Bush trails Kerry by just 1% in actual results.

Kerry leads Bush by 3.8% in exit polls in New Mexico.

Bush leads Kerry by 3% in actual results.

New Mexico is BY FAR the most slanted results yet comparing exit polls to posted results. I'm going to focus on this state to see what type of voting systems they are using...

New Mexico is definitely using electronic voting and had problems with it in 2002. Please help find more data.

http://www.newscientist.com/news/news.jsp?id=ns99996523

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And mistakes do happen. In 2002, touch-screen machines made by Sequoia Voting Systems were implicated in a fiasco in a local election in Bernalillo county, New Mexico. The system registered only 36,000 votes out of the 48,000 that had been cast. It turned out that the error occurred after votes were downloaded from individual machine’s memory cards to a central tabulator: a software bug told the tabulator to ignore all votes cast above a certain threshold.

The inconsistency in the voting tally was only spotted shortly before the vote was certified. The bug was later found, admitted to, and corrected by Sequoia technicians who retrieved the missing votes stored on back-up memory cards in individual machines. “It shakes one’s confidence to know there was a problem this basic in the system,” says Dill.

Strauss argues that an electronic recount of this kind itself raises an ethical problem. Only company technicians, rather than election officials, are qualified to fix the software, but then any changes they make are not then re-certified. “A paper recount would have made everyone less queasy,” he says.

This should not be a problem in Nevada, where all the electronic voting machines used on 2 November will be required to produce a paper record of each vote. Voters will then be able to check this paper ballot and drop it in a ballot box. Nevada is the only state to require this, but California and Ohio, among others, will be watching the outcome closely as they intend to move to the same model for elections in 2006.

This was on a right wing forum. It reported that NM was overreporting at 103%. This maps to the analogous results Bush is getting in EVote states w/o audit systems.

http://network.ap.org/dynamic/files/specials/election_night_2004/us_map_govsenhouse/index.html?SITE=CSPANELN&SECTION=POLITICS

CSpan has it working now adding up to 100%. Why then was it over by 3% before?


In exit polls Kerry lead Bush by 3.8% in New Mexico.

Bush however leads Kerry by 3% in actual results reported from the precincts.

I'm not surprised that when all the results came in, they showed at 103%.

Why? Because in E-Vote states with no audits, Bush has been showing a 5% or more bump that is not tracking with the exit polls.

New Mexico is BY FAR the most slanted results yet comparing exit polls to posted results. I'm going to focus on this state to see what type of voting systems they are using...

I have posted a story on this on Scoop... based on Faun Otter's similar analysis... plus I have commented on the radio down here in NZ based on the story too.

I now think it is very important for us to compile a complete comparative analysis of the uncorrected exit polls with the finals... especially now that this is being picked up by some of the mainstream media.

Unfortunately with the Salon.com post we run a risk that the story will be undermined before it gains a wide audience.

************

http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0411/S00072.htm
Faun Otter: Vote Fraud - Exit Polls Vs Actuals
Thursday, 4 November 2004, 1:21 pm
Article: The Scoop Editor

SCOOP EDITOR'S INTRODUCTORY NOTE: Within parts of the U.S. progressive community there is already widespread concern that electronic voting fraud may provide an explanation for the astonishing 8 million vote gain made by George W. Bush in the 2004 presidential U.S. election.
Already there a variety of odd phenomena which have aroused suspicions about this possibility:

For example:

- In Florida Bush received a million extra votes, while Kerry received only 500,000 extra votes, in spite of a massive Democratic Get-Out-The-Vote(GOTV) and registration campaign in that state;

- In Florida's Broward County, a democratic stronghold and heavily black community, unauditable voting machines recorded a 33% (70,000+) vote gain on Bush's 2000 results and a much smaller gain to Kerry – again Broward was the scene of a massive GOTV campaign;

- In several places voters reported ( http://www/news/stories/op/storiesView/sid/4154/ ) voting for Kerry but noticing the machine record their vote for Bush;

- Recollections, reported here at Scoop.co.nz in 2003, that there is evidence of vote fraud in Florida in 2000 involving security holes in voting systems;

- Observations that many of the security flaws reported in mid 2003 in vote counting systems remained in place for the 2004 count last night (see… http://www.blackboxvoting.org/ for details.)

But by far the most wide source of public suspicion about the results came from the stark difference between the exit polls, which showed strong Kerry leads in many battleground states including Ohio and Florida, and the actual results in those same states. Bush achieved a 5% margin of victory in Florida and came very close to winning Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Add in the fact that the reported exit poll results were changed in the early hours of Wednesday morning, and there was a recipe for suspicion brewing in the online internet vote fraud community last night.

In order to attempt to get a firmer hold on the extent of vote fraud if it did occur Faun Otter (a veteran of the U.S. based vote fraud investigative community) conducted the following preliminary analysis comparing the initial exit poll results (note this link takes you to the revised results) vs actual results.

- Scoop Co-Editor, Alastair Thompson


**********

More here
http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0411/S00072.htm

NM had 1/3 vote on touch-screens w/ no paper trail. At the 11th hour, the night before the election, the machines were switched out and replaced with paper (according to the lawyer on-site w/me).

Bill Richardson (ex-Clinton cabinet) is governor there. I am mightily curious why the switch-out occurred.

Exit Polls in Nevada project Kerry leading by just exatly 1.2%.

ACTUAL RESULTS CONFIRM KERRY AHEAD BY 1.3%

What is the difference? Nevada has instituded paper ballot receipts for their evoting system. They have a verified AUDIT TRAIL! Other swing states that don't have this are showing skewed results for Bush vs the exit polls. Nevada exit polling however is accurate.

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http://www.newscientist.com/news/news.jsp?id=ns99996523

Strauss argues that an electronic recount of this kind itself raises an ethical problem. Only company technicians, rather than election officials, are qualified to fix the software, but then any changes they make are not then re-certified. “A paper recount would have made everyone less queasy,” he says.

This should not be a problem in Nevada, where all the electronic voting machines used on 2 November will be required to produce a paper record of each vote. Voters will then be able to check this paper ballot and drop it in a ballot box. Nevada is the only state to require this, but California and Ohio, among others, will be watching the outcome closely as they intend to move to the same model for elections in 2006.

http://reprints.msnbc.com/id/5937115/

Their exit polls match their results. Only state so far that I've found that matches up, also only one so far to use widespread audit trails.

Some research turned this up. Wisconsin tried to pass an initiative to get paper trails on their evoting systems, but it was defeated by the state Senate in August. As a result...

UPDATED 10pm PST.

Kerry lead is 6% in exit polling.

Actual results however show Bush ahead by 1%, an unexplained difference of 7%.


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http://www.duluthsuperior.com/mld/duluthsuperior/news/politics/9538605.htm?template=contentModules/printstory.jsp

Wisconsin election laws do not require the use of a paper ballot, but electronic voting machines currently in use are limited to optical scan equipment, such as the type used in Brown County.

A bill that would ban paperless touch-screen voting in Wisconsin was introduced in the last legislative session by Rep. Mark Pocan, D-Milwaukee, and Sen. Jeff Plale, D-Milwaukee. Sen. Alan Lasee, R-Rockland, was a co-sponsor.

The measure, which passed the Assembly as a committee bill, died on the floor of the Senate.

That is unfortunate. As Pocan and Plale pointed out when they introduced the legislation, concerns about system security and the potential for electronic vote rigging go hand-in-hand with worries about the lack of a paper trail.

A new special-interest group, the Verified Voting Foundation (verified voting.org), lists scores of computer science professors around the country who have gone on record against the paperless voting machines because they seem to have weak protections against tampering.

as long as our current SOS, Doug LaFollette, is in office. He said as much at our Dem convention this summer. He knows about all the issues surrounding electronic voting and even spoke about it while there was a discussion on the floor of a resolution in support of the HAVA repair bill.

They will try again and again each consecutive legislature until it gets passed.

Kerry exit poll lead 9.6% in Minnesota.

Actual reports Bush trails by 5%, about a 5% discrepancy favoring Bush.

MINNEAPOLIS - A new state law that sharply restricts reporters’ access to Minnesota polling places is raising fears that it will hinder the news media’s efforts to learn whether the voting is being conducted fairly.

advertisement

In one of the most restrictive such laws in the country, reporters and photographers must have a letter of permission to get into a polling place, and they cannot stay for more than 15 minutes. The Legislature passed the law last spring.

Some media experts said the intent of the law was to guarantee journalists access to polling places after local elections officials tightened restrictions on their own in recent elections. But it is also a departure from past practice, in which reporters and photographers were routinely allowed inside polling places.

Most states limit access to polling places in some manner, though in many cases statutes specifically prohibit only “electioneering,” or solicitation of voters.

“I don’t know of any state that has a law that is this restrictive,” said Jane Kirtley, a media ethics and law professor at the University of Minnesota. “This idea that you basically can’t be there unless you have a permission slip is something that I have not seen anyplace else.”

MINNEAPOLIS - A new state law that sharply restricts reporters’ access to Minnesota polling places is raising fears that it will hinder the news media’s efforts to learn whether the voting is being conducted fairly.

advertisement

In one of the most restrictive such laws in the country, reporters and photographers must have a letter of permission to get into a polling place, and they cannot stay for more than 15 minutes. The Legislature passed the law last spring.

Some media experts said the intent of the law was to guarantee journalists access to polling places after local elections officials tightened restrictions on their own in recent elections. But it is also a departure from past practice, in which reporters and photographers were routinely allowed inside polling places.

Most states limit access to polling places in some manner, though in many cases statutes specifically prohibit only “electioneering,” or solicitation of voters.

“I don’t know of any state that has a law that is this restrictive,” said Jane Kirtley, a media ethics and law professor at the University of Minnesota. “This idea that you basically can’t be there unless you have a permission slip is something that I have not seen anyplace else.”

http://www.pcworld.com/news/article/0,aid,118205,pg,1,RSS,RSS,00.asp

Counties in 27 states, including presidential swing states such as Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, as well as the District of Columbia, will use direct electronic recording machines, accounting for about 30 percent of U.S. voters on November 2.

Something like 90% to 9% Kerry. Ironic, ain't it?

It's crazy lopsided for Kerry.

But the exit polling looks to match the actual results. I'd guess there was no reason to try and fiddle with EVotes here since there was no way in hell of this being close.

If you've started coming to these conclusions, odds are good the Kerry team is doing the same thing. This gives me hope. We won't just roll over this time. Kerry and Edwards are not going to concede. If they do, our country is lost, and the world is in big, big trouble. It's not just another national election. They know this. It's time to blow the lid off the fraud.

I don't know what I'd do without DU right now. (Mind you, I've stopped clicking on threads started by people I don't recognize. Sheesh, I can't wait until the board settings are back to normal.)

:hugs:

I dont live in a swing state, but I'll keep checking up on this thread!

Good work, SoCalDem!

They'll never get to it. It's up to DU to help get this message out to the media. I've done what I can personally. The rest of you need to step up and help get the message out.

kick hard.

Kerry exit polls is behind 2%

Bush actual results is ahead 2%

This state matched up. Does Ohio use paper trails?

A confirmation from a DU'er here would be great. According to this story they used AccuPoll which create voter-verified paper trails. This would be the 2nd swing state with paper trails where the exit polls match the actual results. 2 for 2 results.

June 10, 2004

http://www.fcw.com/geb/articles/2004/0607/web-accupoll-...

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Ohio state officials have certified touch-screen voting machines from AccuPoll Inc. for use in the state. AccuPoll's machines create a voter-verified paper record.

Such paper records are at the heart of the debate over touch-screen machines, formally called Direct Recording Electronic (DRE) machines. Other vendors do not offer the feature unless election officials specifically request it. Critics of electronic voting say that fraud or errors in the machine's recording of votes could go undetected without an external record that could be used to audit results.

"This is a significant event because Ohio has been on the forefront of the debate," said Frank Wiebe, president of AccuPoll, in a statement. Ohio recently passed a law requiring the paper trail, he added.

Maybe you should change the title of the thread to ask for help fro Ohioans??

I never felt good about this state to being with. The exit polling was probably off because after all polling is an inexact science. I got a lot of heat for saying this but to me Ohio isn't much a swing state. All the major statewide elected officals, Senators, and most House members are GOP. This state isn't nearly as liberal as the rest of the midwestern battleground states.

Electronic machines. No receipts. And I was told my neighborhood (I just moved here) uses punchcards. If I knew they were electronic, I would have voted absentee. :(

turned inside out and tested for fraud. I find it incredible that in the 2 states with e-machines that produce no hard copy records the vote tallies vary wildly from exit polling.

Mr. Kerry, don't concede.

Computers are NOT machines with built in integrity systems. A program can change all the results and then delete itself. It's that simple.

There is no cryptography on the machines that can assure that votes aren't changed. There is ZERO way to tell whether the vote was recorded correctly!!!!


KERRY CHALLENGE THE COMPUTER VOTING MACHINES. IF YOU NEED TO LOBBY TO KNOCK OUT ALL RESULTS ON EVOTING MACHINES .... DO IT. THE END OF AMERICAN DEMOCRACY IS AT STAKE!!!!!

Hey they stole it in 2000 with eVoting and they got away with it. The 16,000 votes in Volusia county is NOTHING compared to what the Republicans have stole this time.

I don't care HOW silly the Kerry campaign looks. If we don't challenge these vote stealing machines NOW, it will be the end of democracy in America. They'll quadruple in 2006.

The shit-head pundits are all calling the states for Kerry. To them it's completely improbable and unthinkable to accuse the Republicans of full scale voting fraud.


Seriously, in 2 or 4 more years, we'll only have more shill conservative judges that will approve any and all results from these vote stealing machines.

Democracy in America is on the line. And dammit if the Democrats have to team with the military to fight Bush, THEY SHOULD!!! Because this is the LAST GASP OF DEMOCRACY.

OUR COUNTRY IS DYING AND BUSH IS BECOMING OUR FUHRER!!!!!!

Kerry exit polls show an 8.8% lead.

Bush actual polls show him 4% behind.

Difference is about 5% unexplained.

In every swing state with EVoting where I cannot confirm there are paper audit trials, or I know there are not audit trials, there is an unexplained advantage for Bush.

Two swing states with EVoting paper trails have exit polls dead on with actual polling results.

Kerry exit polling puts him ahead 10.7%
Actual reported results have him ahead 11%

This state is not considered contested, but was at one time so I thought to check.

Do they have paper audit trails for their EVoting?

Sounds like they may have them. This makes it 3 for 3. States with audit trails on their EVoting match up with exit polling. All other states that don't have the audit trials have an unexplained discrepancy of about +5% for Bush.

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"New Hampshire passed a law in 1994 barring the certification of any voting machine in the state that does not provide a voter-verified audit trail. Illinois has a similar law"

------------------------

Because of such mishaps, Illinois will require a paper record of every ballot in 2006. Although most of Illinois' 110 election jurisdictions use optical scan equipment, two of the largest -- Chicago and the remainder of Cook County -- are considering touchscreens.

Dianne Felts, director of voting systems and standards for Illinois's elections board, said Nevada's primary impressed her.

"It heartened everybody here because we were all so worried that the printers would jam," Felts said. "It seemed to work very well there. Obviously it can be done elsewhere."

But DeForest B. Soaries Jr., chairman of the U.S. Election Assistance Commission, questioned whether more populous, diverse counties in other states can pull off as smooth an election.

Kerry with a 3% lead in actual results and 2.9% exit poll lead.

NH legislated to mandate paper audit trials for EVoting for the 2004 election.

That is four out of four states which have audit trails that are dead on matches with exit polling vs. actual results.

All other EVoting states are showing an unexplained Bush bias of about +5%.

The evidence is piling up. I think it's time we tightened this up into a concise case and began flooding the media outlets to get them to do their research and reporting.

Florida is e-voting.

I voted in Franklin county on electronic voting machines.

It's important. Did you get a receit from your EVote?

I got nothing, absolutely nothing. Machines here in OH do not give any paper verifible trail. It's so easy to steal the elections now days.

I potsed this on Requiem99 thread with no response but when I looked up the information from your links I do not see the same percentages:

"I looked at the exit poll results for Florida and women were shown as voting 50-49 for *. Did the numbers change?

Greg

Editted to add that the numbers for Ohio looks like Men (47% of vote) 52-48 for Bush and Women (53% of vote) 50-50."

Greg

Yes it's changing. I'm using CNN's site. For states that have reported 100% it's not going to change. Otherwise they will fluctuate. Feel free to re-crunch with the latest data. I would appreciate someone helping to double check the math.

CNN has been caught manipulating the exit poll data. We have screen shots.

Bush shows a lead of 2.3% based on CNN's exit polling data, and he has a 2% lead in the state.

Ohio is also using paper audit trails with their EVoting machines. Results cannot be fixed without being exposed by an audit.

I haven't confirmed this, it's based on older news traffic. We need to hear from Ohio voters who used the EVoting to see if they got a receipt.

Kerry exit polls up 7.5%

Kerry leads actual results by 8%

Exit poll results match actual!

If you guessed that Maine has no EVoting systems you are CORRECT!

They legislated that any EVoting machines purchased and used must have paper audit trails.

-------------
http://www.maine.gov/tools/whatsnew/index.php?topic=HouseDems+News&id=2247&v=Article

April 15, 2004

AUGUSTA-Working to ensure accurate voting as a basic and guaranteed right, the Maine Legislature Tuesday passed a bill requiring electronic voting machines to provide a paper receipt of a voter’s ballot that can be verified by the voter. The bill has been sent to Governor Baldacci for his approval, which is expected.

Currently, no voting precincts in Maine use electronic voting machines. This bill would require municipalities that upgrade to electronic systems in the future to buy systems that produce a “voter-verifiable paper trail.”

It's the paperless voting machines that are stealing our elections, and there's more proof that it is so, than there is that it is NOT so!!

I don't have the link to Kerry's campaign! come on DUers!! Kick some butt!! NOW!!!!

Get the lawyers all over this!!!

THANKS, SoCalDem!!!

:kick::kick::kick::kick:

Scarbough was saying that people were embarrassed to say they voted for bush and tweetie was agreeing that voting was private. Don't believe it. This is what caused the sudden change in attitude in the WH from downtrodden (commented on by several people on tv) to suddenly uplifted. They got the word that the hacking worked or something. They are cheating. I would bet on it. I'm ready to fight. What can we do???

PS DOn't trust CNN's site for the exit polling. Someone else posted that they are changing their exit polling and that it doesn't agree. I got a screen shot of Ohio earlier tonight before anything was called but don't know how to post it.

They did the same with Florida!

Lying fuckers, I've had fucking enough already!!!!

Look at the latest exit polls for CNN!

I should of expected as much. Please help recover and screen shot cached images.

We will need to find other sources of exit polling data. What other agencies compiled comprehensive exit poll statistics? We need that data now before it can be scrubbed.

Are they only off in certain states? precincts? This is going to require lots of data.

such as Arkansas, but Bush winning. Both Senate and house candidates won with 20% margins but have Kerry losing by 5...something not right.

1. It looks like massive fraud by the Repukes. And only two months to litigate it all.

2. Even correcting the numbers by cleaning out the fraud factor, I am just flabbergasted that there are that many dufusses with their heads up their arses voting for that criminal Shrub cartel.

3. If Shrub wins by hook or by crook again, it won't be safe for Americans to travel anywhere outside the U.S. The rest of the world will not forgive us as a people for re-electing this asshole after having four years to wake the fuck up.

4. If Osama Bin Laden/any al queada group wants to punish Americans, they should attack only in the "red" states. I hate to wish this on anyone, but if America is going to be attacked, they should at least, as a matter of fairness, attack the people in the states who were jackass enough to hand their electoral votes to Shrub.

5. Where the hell is the youth vote? This should have been a landslide for Kerry. Any young person stupid enough not to vote for Kerry tonight deserves to inherit the massive debt Dubya's created for them to inherit.

:shrug:

If you look at the popular vote and the rest...I think they would
have been more toward conceding...

but it's too bizarre, the national results versus all of the polls...
I'll bank they are going digging for fraud and using this as way to buy time.

Good for them. I don't believe these numbers unless the entire
country is retarded and also an evangelical Christian.

It's time, folks. We're going to take our country back

NOW!!!!!! GO GET 'EM!

:kick::kick::kick:

He gave some face time to the press, said he felt confident. Is there ANY correlation to that, timewise, or close to timewise, as to when the results began to turn in his direction?

I'm just sayin'

I am so angry and glad Kerry and Edwards caught their hijinks.
My God these people have never told the truth about anything ! They are on a mission from God don't you know !

I'm afraid our side will do something colossally stupid, like be honorable and concede defeat before challenging this fraud.

The evidence I analyzed appears quite damning and supports the premise that Evoting fraud was widespread and applied consistently wherever it could be done without audit trails that could prove the case.

I heard on the radio that the Bush camp made a statement today condemning the exit polling. They said that it was innacurate, but that is all I cought of it. It was early in the day and immediately threw up a red flag for me. When I got home, I started analyzing the exit polling data to see what they were trying to hide.

I began compiling all my data after the Bush "speech".

It was all consistent and in order.

The Exit Polling showed the Kerry leads, but the actual results all skewed +5% to Bush for all states with EVoting and a lack of paper audit systems.

I say they have been taking over since 2000 and they are busted now !

We're being screwed. There is no doubt.

--------------------------------------

Early Exit Polls Show Lead for Kerry in Swing States



Gwyneth Doland < Tuesday 2004-11-02 4:39 PM >

From Salon.com ():

As of 2pm Eastern, exit polls show Kerry winning in Florida (51-48), Pennsylvania (60-40), Ohio (52-48), Michigan (51-47), New Mexico (50-48), Minnesota (58-40), Wisconsin (52-43), and New Hampshire (57-41).

The president leads in Arizona (55-45), Colorado (51-48), and Louisiana (57-42). Iowa is a tie (49-49).

in 2000 I knew immediately something was wrong when the exit poling and the official count were way off. Looks like it's happening again.

Published on Thursday, August 28, 2003 by the Cleveland Plain Dealer

Voting Machine Controversy

by Julie Carr Smyth


COLUMBUS - The head of a company vying to sell voting machines in Ohio told Republicans in a recent fund-raising letter that he is "committed to helping Ohio deliver its electoral votes to the president next year."
The Aug. 14 letter from Walden O'Dell, chief executive of Diebold Inc. - who has become active in the re-election effort of President Bush - prompted Democrats this week to question the propriety of allowing O'Dell's company to calculate votes in the 2004 presidential election.
O'Dell attended a strategy pow-wow with wealthy Bush benefactors - known as Rangers and Pioneers - at the president's Crawford, Texas, ranch earlier this month. The next week, he penned invitations to a $1,000-a-plate fund-raiser to benefit the Ohio Republican Party's federal campaign fund - partially benefiting Bush - at his mansion in the Columbus suburb of Upper Arlington.
The letter went out the day before Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell, also a Republican, was set to qualify Diebold as one of three firms eligible to sell upgraded electronic voting machines to Ohio counties in time for the 2004 election.
Blackwell's announcement is still in limbo because of a court challenge over the fairness of the selection process by a disqualified bidder, Sequoia Voting Systems.
In his invitation letter, O'Dell asked guests to consider donating or raising up to $10,000 each for the federal account that the state GOP will use to help Bush and other federal candidates - money that legislative Democratic leaders charged could come back to benefit Blackwell.
They urged Blackwell to remove Diebold from the field of voting-machine companies eligible to sell to Ohio counties.
This is the second such request in as many months. State Sen. Jeff Jacobson, a Dayton-area Republican, asked Blackwell in July to disqualify Diebold after security concerns arose over its equipment.
"Ordinary Ohioans may infer that Blackwell's office is looking past Diebold's security issues because its CEO is seeking $10,000 donations for Blackwell's party - donations that could be made with statewide elected officials right there in the same room," said Senate Democratic Leader Greg DiDonato.
Diebold spokeswoman Michelle Griggy said O'Dell - who was unavailable to comment personally - has held fund-raisers in his home for many causes, including the Columbus Zoo, Op era Columbus, Catholic Social Services and Ohio State University.
Ohio GOP spokesman Jason Mauk said the party approached O'Dell about hosting the event at his home, the historic Cotswold Manor, and not the other way around. Mauk said that under federal campaign finance rules, the party cannot use any money from its federal account for state- level candidates.
"To think that Diebold is somehow tainted because they have a couple folks on their board who support the president is just unfair," Mauk said.
Griggy said in an e-mail statement that Diebold could not comment on the political contributions of individual company employees.
Blackwell said Diebold is not the only company with political connections - noting that lobbyists for voting-machine makers read like a who's who of Columbus' powerful and politically connected.
"Let me put it to you this way: If there was one person uniquely involved in the political process, that might be troubling," he said. "But there's no one that hasn't used every legitimate avenue and bit of leverage that they could legally use to get their product looked at. Believe me, if there is a political lever to be pulled, all of them have pulled it."
Blackwell said he stands by the process used for selecting voting machine vendors as fair, thorough and impartial.
As of yesterday, however, that determination lay with Ohio Court of Claims Judge Fred Shoemaker.
He heard closing arguments yesterday over whether Sequoia was unfairly eliminated by Blackwell midway through the final phase of negotiations.
Shoemaker extended a temporary restraining order in the case for 14 days, but said he hopes to issue his opinion sooner than that.
© 2003 The Plain Dealer

Diebold promised that shit. I'm sick and angry.

Finally I ask, how can any homosexual (24% according to national exit polls) look at themselves in the mirror tomorrow knowing they gave the shrub a SOLID 1% of the national vote by voting for him????

Talk about hating yourself and being so anti-gay!!!!!!!

they are sick twisted people (none on this board I'm sure) and helped get el fuhrer a national vote lead...

they need to fight this til they try and physically stop us, I was down about it earlier, but after reading these posts, why the f not? why not push these lies to be brought to light now? if not, they'll do this forever!!!!!!

DU members please post all sources of info on Republican opposition to Exit Polling here.

I've already posted one CNN story where Republicans banned Exit Polling in Ohio around polling places.

We now know how they got unskewed. They had CNN and possibly others forge the exit poll results.

--------------

By John Byrne | RAW STORY EDITOR

A source connected to the White House told the National Review this afternoon that President Bush is confident of winning both Ohio and Florida, which early exit polls put in the Bush column, RAW STORY can reveal.
Advertisement

In a telephone coversation, the reporter said, "political operations" was "very confident and completely dismissive of the early day numbers."

Believing an unverified claim on the conservative Drudge Report, that the early exit polls were skewed in favor of women voters (who prefer Kerry by-and-large), the White House source told the Review they believe there was "skewing" of early exit polls.

Confident that Bush would take both Ohio and Florida, the source went on to say that Mel Martinez, the Republican Senate candidate in Florida, will beat Democrat Betty Castor, who is leading in early exit polling. The source also apparently asserted that Bush would crush Kerry in West Virginia.

The source, they said, was "not someone who is given to bluster."

We now know how they got unskewed. They had CNN and possibly others forge the exit poll results.

--------------

By John Byrne | RAW STORY EDITOR

A source connected to the White House told the National Review this afternoon that President Bush is confident of winning both Ohio and Florida, which early exit polls put in the Bush column, RAW STORY can reveal.
Advertisement

In a telephone coversation, the reporter said, "political operations" was "very confident and completely dismissive of the early day numbers."

Believing an unverified claim on the conservative Drudge Report, that the early exit polls were skewed in favor of women voters (who prefer Kerry by-and-large), the White House source told the Review they believe there was "skewing" of early exit polls.

Confident that Bush would take both Ohio and Florida, the source went on to say that Mel Martinez, the Republican Senate candidate in Florida, will beat Democrat Betty Castor, who is leading in early exit polling. The source also apparently asserted that Bush would crush Kerry in West Virginia.

The source, they said, was "not someone who is given to bluster."

A federal judge on Monday refused to allow the Akron Beacon Journal access to polling locations -- a practice the paper has enjoyed for years in its news-gathering role.

Six news groups sue Ohio elections chief

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) - Six national news organizations filed a federal lawsuit Monday seeking additional access at the polls on Election Day.
ABC, CNN, CBS, Fox News, NBC and The Associated Press sued Ohio Secretary of State Kenneth Blackwell over a policy that would prevent exit polling within 100 feet of a voting place.

The organizations have formed a consortium to collect exit-polling data.

The news organizations said the prohibition hinders their ability to gather information about the political process and violates constitutional guarantees of free speech. They contend exit-poll reporters were allowed access within 100 feet of polls in the March primary.

Blackwell's spokesman Carlo LoParo cited increased media interest in the November election.

Anticipating a crush of voters and media Tuesday, Blackwell told county boards of election to enforce a state law barring anyone except voters, election officials, challengers and witnesses from inside the 100-foot limit, LoParo said.

The organizations have formed a consortium to collect exit-polling data.

Oh. And VNS was chopped liver? :shrug:

This makes CNN's fradulent changes to the exit poll results all the more important and damning. The AP is all we have to insure the election integrity. We've proven CNN modified the results. What are we left with now?

--------------------------------------------------

AP becomes sole source for vote-counting on election day



The Associated Press (AP) of the United States becomes the sole provider of vote-counting on the election night, the first time in four decades, the wireless news service said Monday.

The Americans will go to polling stations Tuesday to make their choices for the next president, the new House of representatives, one-third of Senate and some governors.

The move was seen as a step to avoid the repeat of failures in the last presidential election, in which controversy erupted in the state of Florida over the vote-counting and a recount was then called.

In the past, the AP and the Voter News Service (VNS), a companythat was formed in 1964 to count votes and conduct exit polls, were the sources of vote-counting data for the media organizations.

However, VNS was blamed for faulty data that led to the wrong calls in the 2000 election and its failure in the mid-term election of Congress in 2002, and was then disbanded.

Six major US media organizations such as ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, Fox News Channel and the AP have formed the National Election Poll(NEP) to replace VNS.

This time, the media organizations signed contracts with two veteran polling companies -- Mitofsky International and Edison Media Research that will conduct exit surveys for the Nov. 2 presidential election.

The two polling companies agreed that the AP, which has been counting the vote since its founding in 1848, would be their sole source for vote counts. Each of the news organizations will use data provided by NEP to make its own projections on the election night.

Also, the TV networks have promised that they would be careful projecting winners and would not call states that span two time zones until all of the polling places have closed, the AP said.

The AP hired about 5,500 people to work in 4,600 counties across the United States for vote counting on the election night.

The computer system that gather the data was used successfully during the presidential primaries early this year and full dress rehearsals were conducted on Oct. 23 and 30, the AP said.

EVoting fraud problems started weeks ago.

http://tomflocco.com/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=101&mode=&order=0&thold=0

-----------

In documents which may ultimately impact post election legal challenges, the two found three hours missing--between 9:52 pm and 1:31 am--from the audit log, but they also acquired modem "trouble slips" which indicated that the remote phone modem connections were not operating properly.

The trouble slips accidentally revealed King County’s modem access number which would have allowed anyone to surreptitiously take control of the county’s central server on election night from any isolated location.

In an October 29 email we received from founder Beverly Harris, and in phone conversations with both Harris and her associate Andy Stephenson, the two said "we now have what everyone keeps saying no one can come up with. We now have evidence that certainly looks like altering a computerized voting system during a real election; and it happened just six weeks ago." (September 14, 2004)

It also shows which states have paper-trails..

http://www.itworld.com/Tech/2987/041020evotestates/

I think I've gotten further in some respects. That list for example doesn't mention New Hampshire, which also has a paper trail.

ALL the BLOGS need to Trumpet the Exit poll/actual count

We must get all the blogs, from Atrios to Kos to Buzzflash to Takebackthemedia, etc.. ALL ON THE SAME PAGE with the Exit poll/actual count scenario here in SoCalDem's post ...

We must MARCH IN LOCKSTEP and SHAME or FORCE the Media to deal with this.. even if we have insider links to the folks in charge and they get to see it, it must STILL be on every page and every blog so that there is NO DOUBT in the American public's mind that THIS IS VALID..

You've seen what they can do. We've forced CNN to put 750 words back into a Hans Blix report in the SAME AFTERNOON at our site. We've cost Limbaugh many high profile advertisers.

We MUST work together on this. Once this information is in a form that we can all digest and understand we must ALL make it the top priority on our sites, reach out to other blogs and pass this story to them, make it the TOP STORY all over the web.

THIS Is how we can beat them, we take it to the people.. in the end WE ARE THE MEDIA.

DO IT. Our futures may depend on us pounding this information into everyone's heads like a drum, and making it part of the public perception.

THe best part is, THIS IS NOT SPIN.

WHO here can contact Bartcop, Atrios, Kos, Air America Radio (website), etc, etc..?

We'll place it front and center on Takebackthemedia.com and NOT BUDGE until we get ANSWERS.

Let's get these THIEVES out of OUR WHITE HOUSE. Start thinking of Boycotts as well. Maybe if everyone who voted for Kerry decided to NOT purchase GAS FOR A WEEK?

Ideas?

There are three states with EVoting that also have paper audit trails. Nevada, Illinois, New Hampshire. All these states showed exit polls matching precinct reporting.

All other EVote states without paper trails showed at least a +5% bias to Bush between exit polls and precinct reported results.

Ohio has the capability for audits but I don't think used them. This is the Ohio data from CNN before they started altering it.

Male: 51/49 Kerry 47%
Female: 53/47 Kerry 53%

Dem: 91/8 Kerry 38%
Rep: 94/6 Bush 37%
Ind: 60/39 Kerry 24%

Based on M vs. F. Kerry lead exit polls by 1.9% However they had Bush ahead by I believe 3%. Currently they have Bush at 2% from the precinct reports. That is +4% biased in favor of Bush from the Exit Polls CNN did.

My conclusion is that the EVoting systems have been tampered with to give Bush a 5% edge.

I am accepting it as true until a better, more plausible explanation to fit the facts is found. I doubt that that will happen, though.

Where a woman cast a vote for Kerry but it registered for Bush. Then she had to re-cast it a second time to get it to register correctly, with the help of a poll worker. It was reported on one of the voting problems/abuse sites.

It's going to take getting ahold of the machines and decompiling all the code and firmware to sort this out. Also checking if they could of been hacked. I read another report which I posted here where a system was hacked several weeks ago.

and that is exactly what happened to her. She said she was certain she voted for Kerry, but it registered as a vote for Bush.

They didn't mean much during the campaign --- they don't mean much during the election.

An exit poll is asking someone after they walk out of the election booth who they voted for. It's not speculating with likely voters vs. registered voters. This is a poll of exactly who someone just voted for. It's accurate and an excellent mechanism for insuring voting accuracy and to alert us to potential voting fraud.

Given a statistically significant sample size you can accurately predict the voting pattern for the state within a margin of error.

In this case the sample size was large enough to be representative of the nation as a whole. It is also notable that the exit polling accurately predicted the results in most states with very little error. Where there were discrepancies, they are as noted, and they were significant in the +5% range and always in favor of Bush.

There is no plausable explanation for the variance in the EVoting states that have no paper audit trails other than fraud.

Thanks for your work, starting to pull this together.

I hope many people are chasing up the US media and Kerry HQ with this. For what it may be worth, I've sent a couple of emails to BBC News here in the UK, to try and get them interested in this.

Normally, for me, a nation's democratically decided elections and such are a matter for them, not me or anyone else.

But it looks like the Repubs have already fucked with this election, and the rest of the world needs to know what sort of US Government we may be dealing with.

would be that, for some reason, people who vote for Bush refuse to take exit polls more often than Kerry voters. Which would be just weird. Kerry voters tend to be the younger voter, thus, more rushed (my opinion).

I figured that might explain the exit polling problems, that some people are just intentionally deciding to screw with the pollsters and lie. It's far fetched to begin with, becuase this is a very partisan election and most voters feel strongly about their choice and I think would be unlikely to lie about it coming out of the voting booth.

I looked at the states where exit polls accurately were predicting the results and then looked to find what those states had in common. The answer we now know is they all had paper trails on their EVoting systems, or they didn't have any EVoting systems in use in their states.

Using CNN's data still, I just ran CA for the heck of it.

Exit polls match the observed results at 11%.

I don't have any faith in the CNN exit polling data at this point, given how we saw it modified late last night.

Does anyone else have other AP exit polling data seperate from what CNN has posted?

I supect they're using a single source and we're going to be out of luck in verifying it.

SoCalDemocrat, please contact me ASAP -- we've passed this on to some big media and they're doing checks. The problem is that they've changed all their exit polling, which I think really hurts the cause. Email me @ rawstory(AT)yahoo.com, and maybe we can get in touch.

thanks.

I prefer to remain anonymous but I'll help you get the story out.

Observed variance between exit polls and reported precinct results was around 5% for states using Evoting sytems without audit trails.

5% of the voting population of Florida swung from Kerry to Bush is about doubles the margin between the candidates.

Conclusion. Rigging the EVotes gave more than enough votes to Bush for him to win Florida.

Another statistic we need to run is where did all the new voters go? Votes are missing. Lots of votes. Others I believe may of incorrectly have been recast for Bush based upon variance between exit polls and posted results.

The election is in the process of being stolen.

PUT THEM IN JAIL.

Kick! Kick! Kick!

This has to be forced into prominence in the news - don't let the media whores keep this covered up!

There has to be a way. We have lists of people along with addresses etc. There's alot of very smart people here,there has to be a way to double check with them. The fraud is so obvious here.

We also look at precinct data and compare how the state and national averages voted by race, sex, and age, and contrast it against the actual reported results and note any wild inconsistencies.

and they know it. They've stolen it.

with no paper trail in many states? Four years is too long to wait while junior finishes off this country.

I'm desvastated.

shows a map of which states used them:

http://www.corpwatch.org/article.php?id=11517

.. why are we even wondering what happened? The guy has photos of himself and Bush plastered all over his house! Most people would be shocked to know that the head of Diebold told gathered Bush supporters last year, that they would DO EVERYTHING IN THEIR POWER to deliver OHIO to BUSH!

Zogby was not wrong.

say hello to the United Fascist States of Amerika

Ok, I'm looking only at the Exit Poll numbers here and they don't make sense. At 12:21am, they looked like this:



Converting the percentages to actual voters, I get:

Total Respondants: 1,963
Male (47%): 923
Female (53%): 1,040

Break it down further, I get:

Male/Kerry (51%): 471
Male/Bush (49%): 452

Female/Kerry (53%): 551
Female/Bush (47%): 489

Final Results:

Kerry: 1,022 (52%)
Bush: 941 (48%)


An hour and a half later, the exit polls look like this:



I am assuming, at least for the purposes of this post, that the additional respondants are due to more exit poll results coming in (which would mean that most of those people standing in line after the polls closed were repubs?!) Anyway, again converting the percentages to actual voters, I get:

Total Respondants: 2,020
Male (47%): 949
Female (53%): 1,071

Break it down further, I get:

Male/Kerry (47%): 446
Male/Bush (52%): 494

Female/Kerry (50%): 535
Female/Bush (50%): 535

Final Results:

Kerry: 982 (49%)
Bush: 1,029 (51%)


So now let's look at the actual net change in number of votes between the two:

Male/Kerry: -24
Male/Bush: 42

Female/Kerry: -16
Female/Bush: 46

Total Kerry: -40
Total Bush: 88

So, they're saying that, in an hour and a half, after adding 57 votes to the second set of results, that Kerry actually lost a total of 40 votes?! How do you lose votes? Were not talking about an estimate, or percentages. These are actual exit poll vote results. It's like saying at 10pm, Kerry has 1 million votes, and at 11pm, he has 900,000 votes!

If someone can explain it to me, I'd appreciate it.

BTW, due to rounding, these numbers may not be 100% on the nose (for example, there were 57 votes added to the second poll result, but there is only a net change of 48 votes between Kerry and Bush due to the male vote being approx. 99% for Kerry/Bush, 1% for other). But I've tried looking at the numbers even if I round Kerry down and Bush up, and I still get the same kinds of results.

According to this CNN screen capture, at 12:21 am, Kerry led by these statistics. Just looking at the male vote:

Of 1,963 respondents, 40% of them were white men and they voted 51% for Kerry. That gives 400 votes for Kerry. Six percent were black men who voted 75% for Kerry, so that gives another 88 votes for Kerry, bringing the total male vote to 488 for Kerry.

A little more than an hour later, at 1:41 am, we have this result for men: Total respondents are 2020. The white male vote was still 40%, but with only 43% of them voting for Kerry. That’s 347 white, male votes for Kerry. Seven percent was black male voting 73% for Kerry. That give Kerry an additional 103 for a male total of 450.

So, even though the vote had increased from 1963 to 2020, an increase of 57 votes, Kerry actually LOST 38 votes during this time.

HOW DO YOU LOSE VOTES DURING A TALLY?

They fucked up and then fixed it. Your first screen shot shows Kerry winning the male vote which is very very improbable.

tia

Is there a similar discrepancy between the reported votes and pre-election polls, on a state by state basis that shows up as anomolies for Ohio and Florida?

This topic needs a new thread!

Well done, SoCalDemocrat!

:toast:
dbt

I sent you an e-mail - please contact my husband ASAP?
thanks, LiberalEsto

:wow:

They probably want to yell at me for trashing their exit polling.

I checked my in-box and there was no email.

but i emailed it to all the big bloggers, and only the more left-left- whatreallyhappened.com seems to care. not atrios, and kos' contact thing is useless...

http://rawstory.com

How many states in 2002 used electronic voting with verifiable paper trails?

In those states, what was the exit polling showing vs. the actual returns?

In 2008, expect a push from the right trying to do away with exit polling. I still believe the exit polling is valid. I cannot understand why it would fail given a statistically meaningful sample. Our hope for 2008 is that all EVoting systems legislate a requirement for paper audit trails. If we do this, I'll go on record and predict the exit polls once again accurately start predicting election results on Nov 2nd.

The original I mean, not the CNN "Adjusted" polls?

-Grant

I did CA this morning which matches exit polls with observed results. However that is based on what we now know are fudged exit poll results.

A seperate story from CNN indicates they decided late last night that they had "oversampled" the black vote, so they redid their poll results somehow. Now matter how you slice it, it looks crooked.

We have to operate on the assumption that the AP exit polls taken all during the day yesterday were reporting accurately, vs. the modified data the AP sources recooked last night in order make the polling fit the expected results of a Bush victory.

if you send me raw data and instructions (I have a fair understanding of statistics) on what you want done, I'd be happy to automate the work.

I must read his words.

:kick:

By taking rounded off numbers and multiplying them multiple times you are increasing rounding error significantly. If you look at the exit poll numbers from your link this is what we see:

Men 46%
Women 54%

Bush among Men 53%
Bush among Women 50%
Kerry among Men 46%
Kerry among Women 49%

So, in order to minimize the rounding error, we do this:

Bush vote percentage: (0.46 * 53) + (0.54 * 50) = 51.38%
Kerry vote percentage: (0.46 * 46) + (0.54 * 49) = 47.62%

Exit Poll vote versus Recorded Result:

Bush: 51.38% vs. 52.15%
Kerry: 47.62% vs. 47.02%


I'd say that's a very close match, well within the margin of error.

IMMEDIATELY after Nov. 2000.

All the networks used to share one exit poll to precict the outcome.

FLORIDA

Male: 52/47 Kerry 46%
Female: 52/48 Kerry 54%

(0.46 * 52) + (0.54 * 47) = 49.3% Kerry
(0.46 * 52) + (0.54 * 48) = 49.8% Bush

Exit polls using the breakdown you provided shows a dead heat.

The actual reported results have Bush winning Florida by 5%.

OHIO

Male: 51/49 Kerry 47%
Female: 53/47 Kerry 53%

(0.47 * 51) + (0.53 * 49) = 49.94% Kerry
(0.47 * 53) + (0.53 * 47) = 49.82% Bush

Exit polls show a dead heat.

The actual reported results have Bush winning Ohio by 3% and 1% to Nader.


NEVADA (from MSNBC this morning)

Kerry 44 54 with 48% Men
Bush 52 47 with 52% Women

(0.48 * 54) + (0.52 * 44) = 48.8% Kerry
(0.48 * 52) + (0.52 * 47) = 49.4% Bush

Exit polls, Bush ahead by 0.6%. Actual results Bush won by 3%

Note that's not using last nights raw data. I didn't post the raw data for other states so we can't re-run them (AP reworked their exit polling data late last night).

doesn't agree with your percentages.

Male (46%)
53%B
n/a
46%K 1%

Female (54%)
50%B
+5
49%K

Whomever is providing the exit polling data reworked/fudged the data late last night. We cannot rely on what the AP is showing us this morning.

We need snap shots from last night before they reworked their results.

If you've recorded news broadcasts, you might catch the data in those. Also cached browser images are a source. If you find them, screen shot them.

...with a strong headline:

"*** Calling all DUers - Need your help proving fraud! ***

If anyone has cached browser images of exit polls in OH and FL, please send us the screen caps."



... or something like that

When you display this:

Male: 52/47 Kerry 46%
Female: 52/48 Kerry 54%

What does that mean? Is the 46% / 54% the male female ratio? Is the 52/47 the Bush/Kerry number among men? Is the 52/48 the Bush/Kerry number among women? If so, that's simply wrong because it would mean Bush was winning among men AND women, which we know is wrong.

FLORIDA

Male: 52/47 Bush/Kerry 46%
Female: 52/48 Bush/Kerry 54%

(0.46 * 52) + (0.54 * 47) = 49.3% Kerry
(0.46 * 52) + (0.54 * 48) = 49.8% Bush

52/47 means that 52% of men voted for Bush, and 47% voted for Kerry and a total of 46% of voters were men.

Women turned out for Kerry far more than for Bush. This appears to be a factor as to why he was ahead in the exit polls.

52/47 means that 52% of men voted for Bush, and 47% voted for Kerry and a total of 46% of voters were men.

Then by correlation, the second line (Female: 52/48 Bush/Kerry 54%):

52/48 means that 52% of women voted for Bush, and 48% voted for Kerry and a total of 54% of voters were women.

I really don't think that's correct, because that means that Kerry got 47% of men and only 48% of women. Are you suggesting that Kerry got less than of the women's vote than than Bush? You really need to get these number right because nothing you've said so far makes sense.

Men: 52/47 46%

52% of men voted for Bush, 47% of men voted for Kerry. 46% of the total voters were men.

Women: 52/48 54%

52% of women voted for Kerry, 48% of women voted for Bush. A total of 54% of the voters were women.

So then we should have this:

(0.46 * 47) + (0.54 * 52) = 49.70% Kerry
(0.46 * 52) + (0.54 * 48) = 49.84% Bush

Exit Poll vote versus Recorded Result:

Bush: 49.84% vs. 52.15% +2.31%
Kerry: 49.70% vs. 47.02% -2.68%

Which is within the margin of error for the poll. There simply nothing odd going on here, even if you ignore the fact that the exit poll sample you are using is universally accepted as being flawed.

You're cherry picking taking the state with a small margin and then dismissing the entire problem out of hand.

Ohio was the least anomalous when I took the sample. As you have now triple checked, it was less than 4%. However, the other states were much further off. Illinois and possibly Ohio are within the margin of error, the other states are not. Such a discrepancy also should of triggered automated systems and an investigation by the press pool that was recording the exit polling results. Rather than fulfill their oblugation to report the problem, they apparently modified their exit polling results instead so they matched the actual results!

---
Here is a summary of the results I recorded Tuesday evening.

I've rounded off to the nearest percent. The time listed is when I crunched the raw CNN Exit Poll data and produced the second value, which is a +/- value difference between what exit polls showed for Kerry vs. what was actually being reported by the precincts. For example, in Ohio Bush was +3% higher in actual precinct reporting than the exit poll data indicated.

In every case listed below, there is a discrepancy in favor of Bush between the exit polls and actual results. WIth the exception of Illinios, I'd call them outside of expected values.

Time Bush Bias State

08:34PM +3 Ohio
08:34PM +5 Florida
09:29PM +5 Michigan
09:30PM +2 Illinois
09:32PM +6 New Mexico
10:01PM +7 Wisconsin
10:07PM +5 Minnesota

The next three states had exit poll results that were virtually identical to the precinct reported results. This would indicate the exit polls were predicting results very accurately for these three states.

09:39PM +0.1 Nevada
10:36PM +0.1 New Hampshire
11:03PM +0.5 Maine

Nevada and New Hampshire have paper audit trials mandated by state law. Maine does not use any electronic voting machines. It's possible this is a coincidence, or perhaps the EVoting sytems have something to do with the problem. There is no way to be certain because the software running in those machines has not been inspected. The DNC attempted to do so in Florida, but were blocked by Republicans who said the software was "proprietary" and the DNC had no legal right to inspect it.

According to the compact signed by the six news agencies who performed the exit polling, automated systems should of been triggered on election night when these variances began between exit polls and actual results. They were then obligated to investigate the variances for potential problems.

It appears that rather than investigate and notify the public of a potential problem, they instead chose to modify their exit polling data in the wee hours of the morning so they would conform to the expected election results, which showed a Bush victory.

It is essential that we have faith in our voting process. I for one cannot accept these election results until an investigation has been performed,a full disclosure has been made of what went wrong and why, and it can be proven that our votes were properly registered and counted.

I have not had time to analyze it yet. I would appreciate help from other DU members in doing so.

http://ustogether.org/Florida_Election.htm

I have not had time to analyze it yet. I would appreciate help from other DU members in doing so.

http://ustogether.org/Florida_Election.htm

You don't think the discrepancies come fro the fact that exit polls are done in large cities, and do not take into account the vote in rural areas and small cities, that often have significantly different results in elections?

If you use the original uncorrected exit polls you will find that the case is made out clearly.

If the exit polling was tampered with, how can we use it to show vote tampering?

Is it cached somewhere?

Anyone who viewed those sites during the election last night will have cached copies on their machines. We should round those up and make screen shots.

It's also possible we might obtain the raw data collected during the elction by AP under the FOIA. That's probably a job for MoveOn or the ACLU.

KOS, Atrios, and Kevin Drum (Washington monthly) would probably all have the numbers you seek.
Here are the 6PM ones from KOS (swing states only)

Kerry Bush

PA 53 46
FL 51 49
NC 48 52
OH 51 49
MO 46 54
AR 47 53
MI 51 47
NM 50 49
LA 43 56
CO 48 51
AZ 45 55
MN 54 44
WI 52 47
IA 49 49

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/11/2/183635/821

Sorry if ya already knew all that.

Shows Kerry leading in FL and OH after the polls closed, 2% lead in each state.

If the trends you're seeing are really there, this is an important story. Don't blow it with this CNN tampering business. Here's why you're seeing what you're seeing.

Exit polls are adjusted according to actual vote tallies as those tallies come in. That's why CNN changed their numbers. You just need to make sure you're comparing the unadjusted numbers.