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W's SECOND TERM
by Robert B. Reich
(The American Prospect/ April 2004)
Musings about a second Bush term typically assume four years of the
same right-wing policies we've had to date. But it'd likely be far
worse. So far, the Bush administration has had to govern with the
expectation of facing American voters again in 2004. But suppose George W. Bush
wins a second term. The constraint of a re-election contest will be
gone. Knowing that voters can no longer turn them out, and this will be
their last shot at remaking America, the radical conservatives will be
unleashed.
A friend who specializes in foreign policy and hobnobs with subcabinet
officials in the Defense and State Departments told me that the only
thing that's stopped the Bushies from storming into Iran and North Korea
is the upcoming election. If Bush is re-elected, "(Dick) Cheney and
(Donald) Rumsfeld are out of the box," he said. "They'll take Bush's
re-election as a mandate to wage the 'war of terror' everywhere and
anywhere.
The second term's defense team will be even harder line than the
current one. Colin Powell will go. Condoleezza Rice will take over at
the State Department. Rumsfeld will consolidate power as the president's
national-security advisor. Paul Wolfowitz will run the Defense
Department.
Domestic policy will swing further right. A re-election would
strengthen the White House's hand on issues that even many
congressional Republicans have had a hard time accepting, such as the assault on
civil liberties. Bush will seek to push "Patriot II" through Congress,
giving the Justice Department and the FBI powers to inspect mail, and
examine personal medical records, insurance claims, and bank accounts.
Right-wing Evangelicals will solidify their control over the
departments of Justice, Education, and Health and Human Services --
curtailing abortions, putting federal funds into the hands of private
religious groups, pushing prayer in the public schools, and promoting
creationism.
Economic policy, meanwhile, will be tilted even more brazenly toward
the rich. Republican strategist Grover Norquist smugly predicts larger
tax benefits for high earners in a second Bush dministration. The goal
will be to eliminate all taxes on capital gains, dividends, and other
forms of unearned income and move toward a "flat tax." The plan will be
for deficits to continue to balloon until Wall Street demands large
spending cuts as a condition for holding down long-term interest rates.
Homeowners, facing potential losses on their major nest eggs as mortgage
rates move upward, might be persuaded to join the chorus.
In consequence, Bush will slash all domestic spending outside of
defense. He will also argue that Social Security cannot be maintained
in its present form, and will push for legislation to transform it into
private accounts.
Meanwhile, the few shards of regulation still protecting the
environment and the safety of American workers will be eliminated.
Justice Sandra Day O'Connor will surely step down from the Supreme
Court, possibly joined by at least one other Jurist, opening the way
for the white House to nominate a series of right-wing justices, a list
that could easily include Charles Pickering Sr. and William Pryor Jr.
After Chief Justice William Rehnquist resigns, Bush may well nominate
Antonin Scalia for the top slot -- opening the way for Scalia and Clarence
Thomas to dominate the Court. Such a court will curtail abortion
rights, whittle down the Fourth and Fifth amendments, end all affirmative
action, and eliminate much of
what's left of the barrier between church and state.
Karl Rove and Tom DeLay, meanwhile, will have four more years to
fulfill their goal of transforming American democracy into a one-party state.
Congressional redistricting across the nation will make Texas' recent
antics seem a model of democratic deliberation. Automated voting
machines will be easily rigged, with no paper trails to document abuses.
Changes in campaign finance laws will permit larger "hard money" donations
by corporate executives and federal contractors who have benefited by
Republican policies.
Finally, the Federal Communications Commission will allow three or four
giant media empires -- all tightly connected by the Republican Party --
to consolidate their ownership over all television and radio
broadcasting.
Nothing is more dangerous to a republic than fanatics unconstrained
by democratic politics. Yet in a second term of this administration,
that's exactly what we'll have
Reich is Maurice B. Hexter Professor of Social & Economic Policy @
Brandeis University. Before joining Brandeis, he was Sec'y of Labor
during Clinton's 1st term. before heading the labor department he was a
faculty member @ Harvard's John F. Kennedy School of Gov't. and was an
Asst. Solicitor General in the Ford administration
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