Apparently Gallup was right

They and most of the other pollsters said that the GOP base was more excited and motivated to vote than the Democrats, so that is why they used a "likely voter" formula which seemed to favor the GOP in their polls and was often derided by us. The exit polls are a bunch of crap, apparently, but they did show that a higher percentage of Republicans did vote in 2004 than in 1992-2000. Kerry won Democrats, but Bush got a higher percentage of Dems than Kerry did Republicans and while Kerry did win Independents it wasn't overwhelming.

Apparently we were hoping that the Lefts widespread and very real hatred of George W. Bush would be enough to defeat him. We underestimated the evangelical and hard rights equal and widespread love of Bush.

Interestingly Rasmussen the pollster who got it very wrong in 2000 was one of the most accurate on yesterdays vote. He predicted a 50-48 victory for Bush, with final polls giving Bush the edge in Ohio and Florida.

They would have hit it dead on.

Saying that Kerry would win 90% of undecideds was ridiculous, and not based on any previous data that I could find.

I kept saying that you only ignore Gallup at your own behest, but people ignored me and made all sorts of accusations about my motives.

Pew did very well.

And the Tarrance group, sans Lake Snell and Perry hit the nail on the head.

Their final prediction was Bush 51.2% Kerry 47.8%. The actual result was Bush 51% Kerry 48%. That is truly amazing.

I'm weaning myself off all polls.

And the rethugs didn't "steal it" sorry to say. According to a friend who works there, NBC internal polling Monday evening showed we were going to lose, by just about the exact margin in Oh and Fl that we did lose.

The youth didn't show up like we thought they would. Evangelical blacks voted for Bush based on gay marriage issues, and even nearly a million gays voted for Bush (and as lesbian myself, I am still scratching my head over that one). Our peeples just weren't with us like we thought they would be.

except in areas with BBVs.