MUST READ: To believe that Bush won the election, you must also believe:

To believe that Bush won the election, you must also believe:

1- That the exit polls were WRONG...

2- That Zogby's 5pm election day calls for Kerry winning OH, FL were WRONG. He was exactly RIGHT in his 2000 final poll.

3- That Harris last minute polling for Kerry was WRONG. He was exactly RIGHT in his 2000 final poll.

4- The Incumbent Rule I (that undecideds break for the challenger)was WRONG.

5- The 50% Rule was WRONG (that an incumbent doesn't do better than his final polling)

6- The Approval Rating Rule was WRONG (that an incumbent with less than 50% approval will most likely lose the election)

7- That Greg Palast was WRONG when he said that even before the election, 1 million votes were stolen from Kerry. He was the ONLY reporter to break the fact that 90,000 Florida blacks were disnfranchised in 2000.

8- That it was just a COINCIDENCE that the exit polls were CORRECT where there WAS a PAPER TRAIL and INCORRECT (+5% for Bush) where there was NO PAPER TRAIL.

9- That the surge in new young voters had NO positive effect for Kerry.

10- That Bush BEAT 99-1 mathematical odds in winning the election.

11- That Kerry did WORSE than Gore agains an opponent who LOST the support of SCORES of Republican newspapers who were for Bush in 2000.

12- That Bush did better than an 18 national poll average which showed him tied with Kerry at 47. In other words, Bush got 80% of the undecided vote to end up with a 51-48 majority - when ALL professional pollsters agree that the undecided vote ALWAYS goes to the challenger.

13- That Voting machines made by Republicans with no paper trail and with no software publication, which have been proven by thousands of computer scientists to be vulnerable in scores of ways, were NOT tampered with in this election.

told their people to lie. I believe that one.

repug vote counters in Florida, to lie in 2000. Nothing has changed, i'm sure, in 2004.

nt

1.) Help convince the drooling idiots that there vote for Shrub is neeeded.

2.) Make us more complacent.

3.) To gloat about how Bush rebounded and ended up proving the pollsters wrong.

first, this is the first I have heard of it, but wouldnt equally suspicious kerry people do the same?

Second, to organize that without signifigant leakage in the mode of +5% is one hell of a lot of stupid people to make do something without blabbing at some point.

as a cover for the inevitable discrepancy between the exit polls and the results?

I wish we could sue, fight, take this country back... but how?

We must remember that. I wish we could get the Meetup information on Edwards/Kerry. We have the DemocracyforAmerica meetups happening.

We have a stellar foundation now and WE ARE THE MAJORITY in this nation. We have to use this and continue to invite others to meet ups and continue to build this movement and support the anger and outrage that everyone is feeling.

NO DEPRESSION FOR THE VICTIMS - WE NEED TO BE ANGRY!!

WE WERE ROBBED AGAIN.

Rejoice the people did not choose this evil course. Diebold did. We are going to start now to get organized and put petitions on the ballot to ensure the crooked evoting machines are replaced. Voting machines should be
1) Open Source code.
2) Independently tested and verified for reliability and accuracy.
3) Secure in source and physically.

Do you want to join us?

...who are both Democrats and I don't think it has sunk in at all how much of a role those damned touch screen voting machines may have played in helping Bush "win" this election. They actually think that it's mostly the work of evangelical Christians coming out to vote. Though I'm sure that played a part it seems that alot of people just haven't even begun to think about the problems with those voting machines. We don't use them here in Philadelphia so maybe it won't register with people until they actually show up here. Those things cannot become the accepted norm for the way we vote.

there are enough angry people in America today to finally DO SOMETHING about this voting scam.

I followed this election with hope, excitement and a total conviction Kerry was going to kick Bush's backside out of the White House.

During the voting hours I stayed on this forum reading all those complaints of intimidation and the multitude of voting problems - that still remain beyond my comprehension.
Is everyone so apathetic towards corruption these days.

For a nation still aware of voting irregularities in 2000 I was always more than a little surprised nothing more concrete was done to make absolutely sure this election was going to be more democratic than the last. It obviously wasn't.

Perhaps now is the right time for the public themselves to demand, and insitute a truly democratic system of voting, and eliminate this obvious coruption and intimidation -providng of course there is enough freedom left for you all to demand such requests.

...yesterday the pundits were talking as if there were no problems or irregularities whatsoever. I'm wondering if voter fraud is even going to be an issue. Even here at DU it seems that alot of people aren't even entertaining the notion that anything fishy may have gone on, especially in Ohio where the CEO of Diebold promised to deliver Ohio's votes to Bush. Maybe I haven't read enough threads yet but it just seems that this issue is fading. I hope I'm wrong.

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

thanks for the welcome ! :hi: :hi: :hi:


Forgot to mention I'm a Limey from across the water - but really enjoy to stay 'n read everyone's comments .... better than anything in the UK .. different mindset here .. lots of comments keep me smilin' ... and others make me better informed.

Cheers to ya ... n everyone else on the forum !!! :beer: hic, burp


President Bush and Colin Powell are sitting in a bar.
A guy walks in and asks the barman, "Isn't that Bush and Powell sitting over there?" The barman says, "Yep, that's them." So the guy walks over and says,
"Wow, this is a real honor. What are you guys doing in here?" Bush says,
"We're planning WW III ". And the guy says, "Really? What's going to
happen?" Bush says, "Well, we're going to kill 140 million Iraqis this time
and one blonde with big tits. The guy exclaimed, "A blonde with big tits?
Why kill a blonde with big tits? Bush turns to Powell, punches him on the
shoulder and says, "See, smart ass, I told you no one would worry about the
140 million Iraqis!"

1 - They were wrong
2 - Zogby was wrong
3 - Harris was wrong
4 - Incumbent rule 1 no longer applies
5 - 50% rule does not apply when the challengers negatives are so high
6 - Approval rating rule does not apply if the challenger has an extermely high disapproval rating.
7 - Greg Palast needs to be fitted with a tin foil hat
8 - The consiracy required for this to be an issue is astounding. Occam's Razor says the exit pollin methodology was flawed.
9 - The surge in new voters DID have a positive effect for Kerry, it had a MORE positive effect for Bush.
10 - Mathematical models are as flawed as the assumptions that go into them.
11 - Kerry did better than Gore did in 2000. Bush did much better than he did in 2000. There's your answer.

The 2004 election horse is dead. Stop beating it and prepare for 2006.

we don't take on the media, and take on the paperless trail evoting machines.... we are going to be toast forever.

I want it proved to me that Bush won fair and square, and you can not do that with a paperless voting machine.

If we had a real media they would at least raise the question about paperless voting machines in the two states it came down to, Florida and Ohio.

your list of 11 seems right to me, the million dollar problem to tackle is analyze why those 11 points occured.

"50% rule does not apply when the challengers negatives are so high"

Polls were at least good enough to show that approximately 1/2 the country STILL BELIEVED that there was a connection between terrorist threats to the US and Iraq.

The country is becoming LESS informed, being successfully DUMBED DOWN by Limbaugh et al....and playing into character assassination techniques.

It began as a grand experiment with Clinton, and now they have it down to a science. I ran into too many people that had this unfounded hatred for Kerry that defied explanation.

FACTS -
1. If there was no war or if W hadn't so successfully manipulated the war, he would have lost by a landslide.

2. Without a dedicated machine to bring the opponent down, there would have been enough people open minded enough to go over to the Kerry camp. This dumb down lie machine is ESSENTIAL to all their victories.

I just hope all these close minded, dumbed down people now venture curiously into watching F/911 or stumble on other relevant information about Kerry and find out how deeply prophetic their choice was....to take away what would have been possibly one of the best presidents of all time....

Well, odd that you quote Occam's Razor and then assume the opposite.

The 2004 election isn't dead (even if there was NO fraud) -- if we were talking about a football game, then yes. But we have to live with this for the next four years -- so it is very live, indeed.

We're only going to win in the future if we stop pretending we won but it was stolen. That happened in 2000, but now we're pathetically obsessed with applying it to every subsequent loss.

Fact: party identification tilted toward the GOP after 9/11. We had a 38/35 edge in '96 and 39/35 in 2000. This year it was 37/37. When you combine that with the ongoing 4-5% edge the GOP maintains in loyalty, losing 6% among Republicans to 11% Democrats who voted for Bush, the math points direcly to how we lost. Regardless of TruthIsAll's ongoing and annoying desperate attempts to claim his 99.9% model was anything but Twilight Zone nonsense.

You're a beacon of sanity in a sea of tin foil!!

What I don't understand is how these foilers plan to EVER beat the BOOGY MAN they create (Conspiracies).


And I wonder...

Where does this "99-1" odds thing come from? Seems to me it was about 50-50.

Grieving is right when so many fine ideals are dead. No more democracy, no more freedom, no middle class and a huge under class - these are the realities we are facing in 2006 unless the machines are changed. There is nothing we could do, no person we could substitute and win in 2006 if those machines are still in place.

Play ostrich at your peril.

lark

howthehell do you know one way or another?

You can start our Hillary in 08 if you want but now is the time to address the current crisis.

Your predictions and models were always junk. I told you that several times many months ago, but you and others refused to believe it.

Bush won because the Republicans did a better job turning out their base. It's really just that simple. This isn't about conspiracies. The result isn't even particularly surprising considering the same thing happened in 2002.

The Republican campaign machine, led by Karl Rove is simply doing a better job of actually getting their voters to the polls. Firing people up is one thing, getting them to actually make the trip to the voting booth to cast a ballot is quite another.

Your "Bush is Toast" posts were always silly. Eventually you will figure out that voters and voting patterns simply do not operate the way you seem to believe they do. Using polls to try to demonstrate BBV in 2002 and why Kerry almost couldn't lose in 2004 was nonsense. Your predictions were pure fantasy - just like I told you they were a long, long time ago.

Imajika

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

the TIA model was far less accurate that John Zogby who completely blew the election.

there are lots of reasons Kerry was defeated, but i'm not buying the desperate conspiracy theories that ignore the truth. Karl Rove mobilized voters and played up their strengths in the South which they dominated and the DNC ignored.

that corruption or conspiracies exist.

we all know how unbiased and objective YOU are.

Let's discuss issues and topics, not our fellow DUers. Personal attacks do not prove anything, at least when it comes to the issues.

We are all a bit unhappy after these elections. So, let's all settle down and have a civil discourse and be nice to each other.
:pals:

Check this topic out, read it closely and respond. This election was stolen.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=1316010&mesg_id=1316010

Very well said, Imajica. I just posted in this thread a somewhat similar analysis.

very kind to TIA, are you?
You may disagree with TIA's opinions, but treat them with respect.

women who cast their vote for Kerry in Florida ended up voting for Bush ? They were interviewed oN MSNBC. Something fishy about the whole thing .

told me the same thing that his kerry vote popped up bush . I hate this whole thing because we are not going to fight and prove it but for those who think republicans did a better job. You are dead wrong. Ponder this? Bush's last minute stop in Ohios capital where he was greeted by the governor? why the last minute trip to OH.. Also as we know Jeb stayed in florida.

Right! The repukes did a better job of hacking the voting machines is what they did!

Touch screens suck.

The ATM went to the Deposit screen because it sensed my finger as it passed over the Deposit button on my way to Withdrawal. If you touch Kerry then move your hand over the screen too close to the screen without touching it, a touch screen may still sense otherwise. I have had it happen multiple times on the ATM.

Repeat: touch screens suck.

The EFF has multiple reports of intended Kerry votes flipping to Bush, with repeated attempts to recast producing the same result. Can't blame that on fat fingered voters.

if there are facts coming out, it is our duty to discuss them, and try to fit the piece into the big election puzzle.

I refuse to shut down my brain and logic in order not to be termed a tinfoil hatter. This is exactly what the people who rigged the election rely on.

I will not be complacent. I will go beyond the obvious. It is my duty to find as much info on it as I can. I need to know the truth.

Does anyone study probability in this country anymore? I am not a mathematician, but was my high school math team's probability queen. I have also done computer programming for 10 years.

The existence of too many anomalies points clearly to tampering.

I don't know how the election has been stolen, and I certainly don't know how to catch the criminals involved, but it is crystal-clear that this election, especially Ohio and Florida, needs to be investigated. What can we do to make this happen?

you must also believe.....

We were set up my friend. I even bought into some of the pre-election bullshit. Fool me once.....

While we diverted precious limited resources (PEOPLE) to focus on "fraud", BBV, and all that bullshit... the repukes were quietly kicking our fucking ass all over the country in voter turnout.

When you fuck up and make a mistake it can be extremely valuable as a learning tool. But you first need to admit that a mistake was made.

You can push this BS all you want, but I aint buying it. Fool me once....

You don't know jack-shit about BBV and yet you claim it can't happen.

I've read some stupid shit on DU, but that takes the cake.

OMG I insulted your sacred cow. I sincerely apologize.

CAN it happen? Yes. DID it happen. NO.

Do you have one shred of evidence that votes were not stolen?

No, of course you don't, so don't pretend you do.

Common sense should tell you that it happened. You even agree that it is possible, so what makes you think it didn't?

My sacred cow? Quit blowing farts out your ass, it stinks.

Do you have one shred of evidence that votes were not stolen?

I also don't have proof that people have been abducted by aliens and had anal probes shoved up their ass. Hmmmm...but that may explain my apparent farting problem.

Common sense tells me that you don't put a cup of hot coffee between your legs in a moving car.

Here's how an argument like this works. The burden of proof lies with YOU. Give me one precinct....any precinct in the country where the computer data count differed greatly from the manual count outside the range of typical human errors with manual counts.

I'll be waiting......

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

You can't do manual count unless there is a paper ballot

I'm guessing you've never voted before.

How do you do a manual recount of a Diebold machine ballot.

And how the hell would a "dumb ass" like me know. :crazy:

Now answer the question, duck-n-spin.

What did you do on that day you "voted"? When you walked into your polling place? What was the first thing you had to do?

In the mean time this "dumb ass" will keep "ducking and spinning" on something that 99.9% of the people here at DU that have actually voted already know.

Think. Think really hard.

Are you fucking kidding me? Please tell me you have a real basis for your point.

prove the numbers, good work people.

Damn there's the evidence of a hack right there, with the sign ins, if that is, you have to sign in in every state. State laws vary alot. I would like them to count all the pbs and then go down the registration list and give us a grand total. I wouldn't be surprised if it came up a few million short.

"I believe everthing my owners tell me" camp, so it's no use trying to get you to see that vote stealing is older than elections.

There is plenty of evidence, but like leading a horse to water and not being able to make him drink, I know any effort getting you to think is a waste of time. I've much better things to do. Goodbye.

And just when you had me backed into the corner with "plenty of evidence" and everything.

You either get it, or you don't. It's not my job to see that you are less ignorant. It's your's alone.

"Common sense tells me that you don't put a cup of hot coffee between your legs in a moving car"

damn those trial lawyers, they need some of that tort reform.

hmmm, whose agenda is that?

I also don't have proof that people have been abducted by aliens and had anal probes shoved up their ass.

The alien told me they didn't find any worthwhile discoveries, aside from that approximately 10% of humans enjoy it. :evilgrin:

Suspecting that the votes were stolen is on a level with believing in alien abduction? That says it all. A closed mind is a closed mind.

:hi:

A "dumb ass troll lying in wait who doesn't know jack shit and has a closed mind".

Psssst...my analogy was referencing PROOF.

Do you have one shred of evidence that Santa does not exist?

does anyone have his email address ??? :shrug:

here, and act like everyone is full of b.s. about everything imaginable, and over and over again, I kept asking myself, well, then why are you here?

Now I know...to build up those post counts. NOW is their moment to spew their cyber ejaculate upon D.U.ers.

Well, that's what ignore is for.

Remove "BBV" from the vocabulary, and direct that energy towards real, non-conspiracy efforts and we may have just pulled-off a win in one of the close states.


Here is a cold, hard fact concerning conspiracies...

As many as three people can keep a secret. As long as two of them are dead.

Not one Dem has made this an issue. In fact if it were actually addressed 2 years ago we might have been able to do something about it.

How many new trolls do we have here waiting to "out themselves" in 08?

Please try to follow me here. You need to remember that I'm a "dumb ass troll lying in wait who doesn't know jack shit"....

First, a simple question. How can the party be focused on an issue that you say no Dem did? Those 13,000 plus lawyers weren't acquired by moveon or Michael Moore. If you had actually worked in the field you would know that the call to arms did indeed come from those dems that "didn't make it an issue".

We were set up. Plain and simple. While we were too busy watching the jelly beans in the jar the repukes were getting the voters to the polls and filling the jar.

I have already posted my election day experiences and thoughts on a thread that has sunk in the archives, but I'll relate another experience that day. Around 12 noon a friend of ours calls my wife in total panic. He was convinced that his vote didn't get counted. I was just a tad bit busy that day so I had my wife call the poll watcher for that precinct to verify his sign in card and check off sheet. Everything went smoothly in that precinct.

I have lost sleep trying to figure out why we lost. My conclusion? We didn't get the inactive dem voters to the polls. And the fucking bullshit that is being pushed on this thread and others will only inflame that problem. Perpetuate it.

We got our ass kicked. We lost. You can focus on an "issue" that the repukes helped push all you want. I'm going to work to make sure we stay focused and don't fall for this bullshit again.

:kick:

I was feeling better so far this morning until your post.

Now I'm back to thinking this whole thing is inconceivable, impossible, absurd, a travesty.

I guess sometimes the unjust, absurd, and just plain wrong does happen and sometimes there's no recourse. I've refused all exposure to news, talk, and newspapers, and every time I check into DU I hope to see a LBN post that massive undercounting or massive fraud has been unearthed.

No such luck yet.

For myself, I'm thinking of the Jitterbug Perfume motto: Lighten Up.

before I believe that Bush won this election. I've said it before--if I can go to the grocery store and get an immediate printout of every item I bought and the price of each, and all the other information, there is absolutely no reason that all voting machines, in all precincts, in all states can't produce a paper receipt for a much smaller randomly produced ballot result.

Greg Palast also said that if all the votes in Ohio that were supposed to be counted were counted, Ohio would be blue. I imagine some of the other states would be too.

I was standing in front of Dem headquarters this morning waiting to get my compter. One 69 yr old guy stopped to talk, shared that he hated the results. When I went to the grocery store, another older man also volunteered he hated the results, said he probably wouldn't live to see another election and was really sorry he was going to die under a Republican. But Ohio went red, go freakin' figure

Exit polls were wrong in many places with paper trails.

Young voter upped they're numbers and voted more handily for Kerry than Bush as compared to 2000. I believe the WaPo reported they had a net effect of an additional 1.6M votes for the Democratic candidate.

Yes, they weren't the landslide numbers expected but that was predictable given the history of the youth vote.

I posted this Nov. 1 re: Freepers planning attack.
With all the events of problems, deliberate disruptions, strange phone calls re: voting poll sites moved, being told to vote Nov. 3, etc., I have to wonder how much of a hand did these insane people hae in skewing election outcome?

Can't link the DU thread since archives are still unavailable. But, here is the Freep site link:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1265487/posts

elections.

So - to him - the exit polls had to have been "sabatoged". He wouldn't consider the possibility that the votes were miscounted or something.


http://www.thehill.com/morris/110404.aspx

And yes I do believe our voting system has been corrupted. At this point I think the only thing we can do is file suit after suit in county after county to have the touchscreen machines removed and have the optical scan machines verified with random handcounts against the paper ballots.

And have the corporations that are perpetrating these frauds dissolved and their boards indicted, convicted, fined and imprisoned.

I live here in Sarasota, FL and my daughter and son-in-law both work as critical care nurses. My son-in-law told me that yesterday they were TOTALLY SWAMPED in the E.R. because of so many people there. Everything from outright heart attacks, to anxiety attacks and absolute inability to to function. Depression to the MAX. He said it was the busiest day since he's worked there. Something went wrong in Florida for sure. It's my understanding that Glenda Hood is getting sued (state Supervisor of Elections) but don't know if that will do anything.

We have CROOKS & LIARS in the White House now, and more on the way. My husband doesn't understand my total depression, but I have enough pills to make it all go away. Extreme, yes!! But a thought worth entertaining. Remember Abbe Hoffman?? When you work your heart out for FREEDOM and see what has happened, all you can think of is RUSSIA! I don't know how I'm ever going to deal with this... it's worse today than it was yesterday. Think Supreme Court! I can't even think FUTURE, or OPTIMISM. Hitler & Stalin keep running through my minds. Isn't this the way it started for them??

Greg Palast's article on Tompaine.com called "What Happened in Ohio?" which specifically addresses the suppression of the minority vote in Ohio and New Mexico. Repukes were up to their old dirty tricks -- decrepit voting machines in minority districts in Ohio generating plenty of under and overvotes to be tossed. Also, "provisional" ballots being handed out "like candy" to minority voters in both states - plenty more Kerry votes to shitcan. Couple this with the no paper-trail machines in Florida, and you've got big time election larceny.

Anyone who thinks this was an honest election and a majority of American voters chose the chimp again, are living in Fantasyland.

Or are you going to stop looking in the rear view mirror and think constructively about how we can create a viable opposition party to protect our country against Bush's excesses?

.

It's getting to the bottom of what the Fuck happened?!

Thanks for your work!

is horrible.

maybe you should look at your party and see that there happen to be differing opinions out there. i'm almost afraid of being labeled a freeper because you guys jump all over anyone who dares to believe that the election wasn't stolen. maybe you didn't see skinner's post on the home page, that not everyone on DU is a total leftist. i consider myself a liberal centrist. and people like myself are afraid to post here because we are so quickly ostracized for not toeing the leftist line. now my apologies for going so off topic.

look at it from this standpoint. it's not what's wrong with the party; it's what's wrong with half of America. it's their problem, not ours. this is the president they wanted, so be it. i don't see how it's so hard to fathom that half this country is retarded. we already knew this before nov 2nd, and now it's just a confirmation.

we lost. let's see how we can win next time. personally, i doubt the dems can do anything. seriously. the rednecks have taken over this country. we get the president they deserve.

oh, and for those supposed dems who are asking the gays to leave the party? fuck you. we don't need you. but thank you for energizing the rest of us.

In life you EARN respect. Don't come on the board with RW talking points or defeatist bullshit and you will get respect.

> we lost. let's see how we can win next time.

First of all, we should understand exactly how we lost. For that,
we need for all the votes to be counted. Even if there were no
potential for fraud, we would need that information.

> personally, i doubt the dems can do anything.

If that is the case, we have nothing to lose by trying to root out
electoral fraud. At least, it may help to prevent it in the future,
which is a worthwhile goal regardless of the legitimacy or lack
thereof of the current election.

We do not yet have solid proof that this election was stolen.
We DO have solid proof that the existing systems could easily be
hacked. THAT is a threat to our democracy, whether or not it has
materialized in the current election.

> seriously. the rednecks have taken over this country. we get the
> president they deserve.

It is clear that the mad cowboys HAVE taken over the country,
by hook or by crook.

> oh, and for those supposed dems who are asking the gays to leave
> the party? fuck you. we don't need you. but thank you for energizing
> the rest of us.

Right on there!

Just throw out the datapoints you don't like.

be totally dis credited. They and their miserable policies and criminal mis management will be exposed. I am just sorry the country will have to suffer through their failure.

How do we combat the touch screens?? I say we do it state by state with initiatives or propositions that ban them from being used or require a paper trail.

This idea would be easy to gather signatures. Unless the Repukes want to show their true colors that they are not for a fair elections.

Regardless of party, I believe people want some kind of assurance that their vote would be counted.

Our pre-election perceptions of a solid Kerry win were not wrong.

Those who expected a Kerry landslide were perhaps too optimistic, but the win itself was there. The votes were stolen, manipulated out of sight in the compilation process. Basic audit trails never existed. It was probably not so much the individual touchscreens. It was later in the process of combining totals at the county level from the precincts. A simple process permitted in the open backdoors of the computer code -- just as we have been shown over and over again by Bev Harris and acknowledged by Dennis Kucinich and Howard Dean.

We know it was possible. I am sure it was done.
• I refuse to blame the voters for this loss.
• I refuse to reinforce the idea that our pre-election perceptions were all wet.
• I am surprised that other DUers are so quick to assume that all of us were all wrong just because the freepers say so!

WHY did they fight so hard to install these machines and why did they go after anybody who questioned the Diebold machines, had web sites about it? The whole thing smells.....

How can ANYONE believe this election was not stolen?

Besides your reasons, let's add:

1) The Georgia elections, where both Cleland and Barnes has high single digit (in the Cleland case, DOUBLE DIGIT) leads, and lost by substantial margins. Diebold was used in every GA county, as a test.

2) Every indicator showed Kerry winning Ohio. Night before polls in Ohio had him up anywhere from 3-5 points.

3) Blackwell. 'Nuff said.

4) The fundie connection that runs through Diebold, ES&S and Sequoia, as explained concisely by Malloy last evening.

5) The amazing coincidence of old decrepit voting machines going to predominately black communities.

Every time I see one of these "gee, let's work even harder in '06" posts I want to scream.

It's the vote counting, stupid! If we can't get rid of paperless voting devices we have no chance.

None.

In 2002 the final polls had Cleland and Chambliss even in Georgia. Chambliss had all the momentum. Plus, Georgia state polls historically overstate Democratic support by many points, going back to '94 if not earlier. Ralph Reed was in charge of Georgia that year. This year he headed the entire GOP southeastern campaign. Bush went from 55% in the south to 58% this year. He's a prick but damn good.

The final polls this year did not agree Kerry was winning Ohio. There was even one thread a night or two before the election in which a DUer begged someone to show a recent poll with Kerry ahead in Ohio. It took over 10 replies for someone to scrounge up a semi-recent example. The late polls indicated a move toward Bush in that state.

Besides, it was always idiocy to rely on state polls that made no sense in relation to national. I emphasized that dozens of times. There is a logical relationship. Ohio figured to mirror the national vote and it did, coming in 1 point more Dem than the nation, 49-51 and not 48-51.

In 2002 the final polls had Cleland and Chambliss even in Georgia.

In the final polls, less than one week before the election (5 days, actually), both Cleland and Barnes were well ahead of their Repug opponents.

The resulting swing for their Repug opponents was in double digits:


****Poll by Atlanta Journal Constitution/WSB-TV of 800 likely voters on Nov. 1 For Georgia Governor

Roy Barnes (D) 51% up 11
Sonny Perdue (R) 40%

** "Official Results" from the 'Diebold Electronic Voting Machines' on Nov. 5

Roy Barnes (D) 46%
Sonny Perdue (R) 51% up 5 - that's a 16-point pro-Bush swing - was it magic?

----------------------------------

****Poll by Atlanta Journal Constitution Nov. 1 for Georgia Senate

Max Cleland (D) 49% up 5
Saxby Chambliss (R) 44%

**"Official Results" from the 'Diebold Electronic Voting Machines'

Max Cleland (D) 46%
Saxby Chambliss 53% up 7 - that's a 13-point pro-Bush swing - was it magic?

Edited to add link: http://www.bartcop.com/111102fraud.htm
==================

And the "theory" (aka: cover story) about the really big and surprising turnout of good ole redneck boys doesn't hold water, either. SoS Cathy Cox finally released data (in Feb 2003) which showed that there was absolutely NO difference in the turnout percentages in GA except for a small (almost negligibly small) increase in turnout among black women, whom I can assure you didn't vote for the Repugs.

Thanks.

:thumbsup:

I would love to see Bush shamed and arrested.

After you got everyone's hopes up too. Bush won because the pollsters didn't poll evangelical Christians who were crazy about the chimp. We didn't get the vote out more than the Republicans did. Maybe because we were too complacent because of huge winning projections.... Open and shut case.

Says who??

If they did not need to steal; the vote Why did they refuse to put in a paper trail? Don't tell me I should have spoken up before. I DID.

Do you have any links to support that -- any raw data?

Thanks!

IIRC, about a year ago the head of Diebold promised to deliver Ohio for Bush.

I've been telling everyone I talk to here in New York that I don't believe for a second that bush got that many votes!

Now I have a real list to work from!

:grouphug:

The thing is, NAZIs don't play by the rules. They certainly don't give up power without a fight. And they are hard as hell to imprison when they control the courts, the con-gress and the executive. We need the People to see the TRUTH.

Why would anyone object to or try to talk people out of considering election fraud?

Kerry winning and election fraud are two entirely different issues. The first is partisan, the second is a matter of patriotism and saving democracy from a fascist threat. Mixing the two together is creating a big smokescreen.

Get over Kerry losing and go back to partisan politics if you like, but that is a separate issue from the fraud and corruption and criminality of the Bush adminstration.

They got the Christian vote out so they "won" and that's it??? Think about that for a minute and apply a little common sense.

on edit - grammar

One or more of the three.

The Machines have taken over.

was tipped somehow in Bush's favor. His smirky ass grin tells that he knew all along the fix was in. I say we go after him with every bit of evidence we have to convict him of war crimes, murder, treason and anything else we can get to stick.

This is war. He wants to be a war time President, let's give him a real one through the courts.

the real problems.

If you think the claim that this election wasn't stolen you need to look at this topic.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=1316010&mesg_id=1316010

some of us are better at research, others - at planning. We can multitask - doing one doesn't exclude doing the other.

I'm just glad he only used Osama posing as a pundit to get weak minded American blood up enough to go vote against the terrorist's wishes. This was my first Presidential election since Reagan convinced me that the system was so lobsided and currupt that I was better off not participating. I would be in this world but not of it so to speak. Then Bush came along and I couldn't justify my non-voting possition any more. I'm proud of the fact that there seemed to be a lot of people like me in this election, but I figured Bush would still walk away with the Presidency. I just figured Kerry would at least win the election. The Wizard of Oz style voting machinery may have fixed that for the Republicans. Our progressive movement should concentrate on making the next election truely democratic. The paper trail is a good start. I'm not suprised by this, although I'll acknowledge my jaw innitially dropping. Its as if a lot of you are finally catching up to how I felt after 8 years of Ronald Reagan followed by that first Bush I loved to hate. It is currupted and always has been. In fact it actually might not be as currupted as it used to be. The information age is changeing all this and they scramble in despiration to keep things fixed. We need to change this system and fight back in this class war. They like to start this class warfare and then scream "you're starting a class war" when we fight back. Fight back we must, however and I am a voter now. I will keep up this fight for my country. Reagan made me a non-voter, but this Bush made me a voter. Cheer-up fellow progressives, there's still the hope of an impeachment hearing. His crimes have piled up high enough.

insights into this man it's worth visiting the links below .

Sources:

1. "Bush Wanted To Invade Iraq If Elected in 2000," Russ Baker, 10/27/04, http://daily.misleader.org/ctt.asp?u=3367296&l=65896.
2. Ibid., http://daily.misleader.org/ctt.asp?u=3367296&l=65896.
3. Ibid., http://daily.misleader.org/ctt.asp?u=3367296&l=65896.
4. Ibid., http://daily.misleader.org/ctt.asp?u=3367296&l=65896.
5. Ibid., http://daily.misleader.org/ctt.asp?u=3367296&l=65896.
6. Ibid., http://daily.misleader.org/ctt.asp?u=3367296&l=65896.

Visit www.Misleader.org for more about Bush administration distortion.

I have read much of the conspiracy theories here at DU (many by you) and honestly believe it drained a lot of energy. For example, much time was given to:

- Every news event in the world was somehow timed by Karl Rove - even the Peterson trial!

- Bush is on hard drugs

- The WH staff feeds him his "lines" with a transmitter

- Reagan's death was "timed" to help Bush

- Even Michael Jackson was a "Rove distraction"

- WMD's would be found in Iraq - just in time for the elections

- "Bushco" would pull off a terrorist attack before the election

- Elections would be canceled

- Osama was "on ice" waiting for his unveiling to boost Bush

- Finally, the voting machines were rigged!

- Anyone care to add any more????

All of the above were a silly waste of time. It is believed by some that leadership of the country happens in a bubble and there is no oversight that can be trusted. That is a sad belief especially by those far, far outside the mainstream. Yet, they insist THEY own the truth and they ARE the mainstream, it's just "not reported." Tuesday night proved otherwise. Until we, as Democrats, can formulate a national message and not one that caters to many arms of identity politics that only make up an angry minority - we will lose. When we lose, the country loses. The anger this year, the Michael Moore, Greg Palast, Mark Crispin Miller, Al Franken (on and on)-inspired bombastic anger took our eyes off of the nuts and bolts of winning elections.

TruthIsAll ---- THAT'S the truth.

Don't forget:

- Osama video was a fake (not really Osama)

There are way too many conspiracies on this site. We spend too much time talking about stuff that is obvious garbage when we could be dealing with things that matter.

They stole it in 2000. Documented. Too late.
They stole it in 2002. Documented. Too late.
They stole it in 2004. To be Documented. Too late.

You are not angry?

Then you are not a Democrat! Or if you are, take off your tu-tu's.

I listed the things, TruthIsAll, we have read from you for months. Now, we are supposed to believe the biggest fraud in the history of of the United States has been pulled off this week. Could you tell us when the mass-landing from Jupiter occurs...err...when Karl Rove will "order" their landing? You do harm to our party, in MY opinion. But, you have every right to do just that. Tuesday proved - it doesn't help.

You don't believe there was fraud?

Was there fraud in 2000? Yes or No?

Was there fraud in 2002? Yes or No?

You do harm to rational thought.

Go ahead. Keep believing the RW lies. They say it was a fair election and you believe it.

You still won't accept the fact they will do anything to win.

Or maybe you just think like they do.

Who do you believe? Rove or your lying eyes?

Sorry. I've been a Democrat for over 60 years. To question all the conspiracy theories has nothing to do with being a Democrat. I don't know how to make that any clearer. Fraud in the elections is not the litmus test anymore than believing Bush is Hitler II or another "Bushco" terror attack is coming. You said, "Or maybe you just think like they do." Right. That must be it. John Kerry doesn't believe your tinfoil - John Edwards, Bill Clinton. Maybe they all "think like them?"

and figure it out chewy.

.

So he invents new bs to show why his old BS was wrong.

Great post... and I tire of the tin hats anyway.

...and they should get out of the party.
Right?:eyes:

The fact that a thing SOUNDS strange and untrue doesn't necessarily mean that it IS untrue. We need to be open-minded.

simply saying it was doesn't make it so. It is simply not sufficient to just say, "Oh, look the vote totals are completely off from the exit polls." What is needed to be found is

a. A diebold machine used in the election where an inputted Kerry vote outputs a Bush vote.

or

b. The uncovering of a tabulation system somewhere down the pipeline that effectively does the same thing.

or

c. Someone involved in actually setting up the machines or tabulation systems to come forward and show in detail how votes were switched or lost.

or

d. Some credible internal e-mail or memo that discusses a, b, or c.

Bottom line: Evidence of a conspiracy (if in fact there was one) must be found. Suspicions aren't proof.

damning looking bar charts. And I've also read questions about the validity of the early exit polls on which those charts are based, that they oversampled Democrats, etc. Which side do I believe? When such evidence is in dispute, other independent evidence needs to be found that either supports or contradicts the first evidence. And rather than rely on other numbers or statistical analysis, it would be infinitely more damning if you could find actual rigged machines, tabulation systems, people who did the rigging, or documentation on the rigging.

Now show me where you got the numbers from.

Faun Otter (81 posts) Wed Nov-03-04 11:03 AM
Original message
Exit polls analysis versus reported vote count


Here is my analysis of exit polls Vs. supposed ballot counts.

Method
Grab one site which lists the exit polls before they were "corrected.” Correction is the procedure by which the exit polls are retrofitted to match the figures provided by the vote counting machines. It is easily done by changing the exit poll results, such as the 2.00 a.m. flip-flop of the Nevada exit poll scores which was done without any change to the sample size.

A slightly less obvious sleight of hand is to alter the weighting. Weighting is the name for a multiplier used to correct sample subgroups to match the proportions in the whole of a state population. Thus an exit poll can be ‘corrected’ by saying something to the effect,
“Oh well, the vote results show we must have under sampled Republicans and therefore we’ll multiply that subgroup of the exit poll sample by 1.5 to make our results fit the figures the ballot counting machines are spitting out.”

Here is one list as an example of raw exit poll data:
http://www.bluelemur.com/index.php?p=386

Then take a look at the results by state, such as on this chart:
http://news.yahoo.com/electionresults

There is a bit of math involved but don't worry, I taught market research at a University - a place where Republicans fear to tread, according to the media’s own polls! The Bush people argue that the exit polls are skewed by the methodology employed. It is odd that they don’t say what that error producing part of the methodology might be. A skew means a systematic error is introduced by the test protocol and causes a consistent shift in one direction.

IF this was true, then all the exit polls would show the same sort of shift from 'actual' results.

The GOP offer an alternative argument that the exit polls are not large enough samples and therefore the results are off by a large random error.

IF this was true, then the exit polls should scatter on either side of the actual result,, especially if the final result is close to 50/50.

What do we actually see when comparing exit polls with actual results?

There is skew - but ONLY in states which the Republicans had previously stated to be target states in play. The skew is in the same direction every time; that is to say in favor of Bush.

The exit poll results are not scattered about the mean as the alternative theory predicts. They are all on the Kerry side of the vote counts as issued by the states except for a hand full of states which hit amazingly close to the exit poll figures.

Here are the figures. They list the four contemporaneous and uncorrected exit polls. Kerry is listed first and Bush second in each pair of figures. Published = the figure presented as the vote count as of 10.00 a.m. EST on 11/3/04

AZ Poll one 45-55 Final 45-55 Published 44-55
CO Poll one 48-51 2nd 48-50 3rd 46-53 Published 46-53
LA Poll one 42-57 Final 43-56 Published 42-57
MI Poll one 51-48 Published 51-48 Published 51-48
IOWA Poll one 49-49 3rd 50-48 Final 49-49 Published 49-50
NM Poll one 50-48 2nd 50-48 3rd 50-48 Final 50-49 Published 49-50
ME 3rd 55-44 Published 53-45
NV: 3rd 48-49 Published 48-51
AR: 3rd 45-54 Published 45-54
MO Final 46-54 Published 46-53

These tracking polls were right where you would expect them to be and within the margin of error. However, if we look at some other states, the figures are beyond curious. either the exit polls were wrong or the vote count is wrong:

WI Poll one 52-48 3rd 51-46 Final 52-47 Published 50-49
PA Poll one 60-40 3rd 54-45 Final 53-46 Published 51-49
OH Poll one 52-48 2nd 50-49 3rd 50-49 Final 51-49 Published 49-51
FL Poll one 51-48 2nd 50-49 3rd 50-49 Final 51-49 Published 47-52
MINN Poll one 58-40 3rd 58-40 Final 54-44 Published 51-48
NH Poll one 57-41 3rd 58-41 Published 50-49
NC Poll one 3rd 49-51 Final 48-52 Published 43-56

Taking the figures and measuring the size and direction of the poll to supposed vote count discrepancy, we find:

WI Bush plus 4%
PA Bush plus 5%
OH Bush plus 4%
FL Bush plus 7%
MINN Bush plus 7%
NH Bush plus 15%
NC Bush plus 9%

Our election results appear to have been tampered with to give Bush some unearned electoral votes.

Again.

Faun

The exit polls results you posted are the same ones that were "leaked" to various third rate blogs such as Drudge. They are not from credible sources and for all I know could have had their origin in the Bush campaign to suppress turnout.

Give me exit poll numbers from a reputable source and I'll look at them.

Circumstantial evidence. The lawyers use it in court all the time.

but alone it isn't enough to convict. The process, the mechanism, the smoking gun if you will, has to be found. A conspiracy as immense as is being posited simply cannot be kept secret. People talk, the framework of the system must still be there, as should be secondary and tertiary papers trails. Focus on uncovering that if it exists.

Nice try though.

This is standard disinformation - "massive conspiracy, no smoking gun, can't keep the secret"

There is more than enough evidence to warrant a full scale investigation. Period, end of story. This isn't tinfoil.

That is the worst thing to want to believe. It sucks having to face it as a reality. Maybe that's the problem here. Some people are not understanding the degree to which we are truly fucked.

I'm keeping this!

However, I knew going into this that we'd need a pretty massive margin in the several swing states in order to overcome the voter intimidation and outright fraud. I was guessing we'd need somewhere in the neihborhood of a 3-4% margin- which it looked like we had, but apparently I was wrong. It would would have had to have been 5% or above... and even then, depending on the type of voting machine scam in place, that wouldn't have been enough.

So the fix was- and I think in our hearts we knew that. The far riight will never willingly cede power in America. As I have said many times before on DU and elsewhere, political realignment in America is going to rrquire a great deal of suffering- something on the order of a great depression and/or major debilitating wars. Historically, that's been the case- and it to overcome the built in structural and now technological problems in place in this country, I see no other way.

:kick:

.

Of course, he concludes the exit polls were wrong

:kick:

They lied to take the country to war, they stole the election in 2000....

They get a pass on this???

.

In 1980 the South had 26 Democratic Senators, today it has 4. If you look at the national "red versus blue" map at both State and County level it is not hard to see that the DNC has become very isolated from the mainstream of this nation.

2 to 1 Americans classify themselves as conservatives and many moderates vote to the right, not the left on many issues.

Bush has one Achilles Heel that will bring him down, take the wind out of his Imperial Sails and that is 9-11.

I was part of the 9-11 Confronting the Evidence in NYC this year. I was part of the criminal complaint that was delivered to Eliot Spitzer on October 28, 2004.

Over 55 million voted against and many of those voters were ecumenical Christians you people are blindly bashing. They were Conservative Republicans and Libertarians that crossed over to try to stop the Bush Junta and the fascism that is represents.

Right here in Arkansas - two key counties that NEVER vote REP did vote Republican this year. Jefferson and Nevada counties and there were others.

The problem with DNC is DNC and that it represents the fringe left and that is NOT America folks. 2 to 1 says this nation is a conservative nation and one that puts certain values front and center every time.

www.karlschwarz.com

http://www.reopen911.org/petition.php

http://www.justicefor911.org /

All of this talk about running Hillary Clinton in 2008. The RNC has been ready to destroy her since 1994. The strategy that took the House and Senate away from Clinton was designed and largely financed by me. Again, run Hillary, rash into the side of the mountain. They are just waiting for another stupid DNC move.

I took a stand for America, freedom, a turning away from Imperialism and fascism. I have received hundreds of emails from Dems asking what to do now. Frankly, DNC is not "resuscitate-able" in its current form. Lest no one noticed, Bush now controls a stronger US Senate and that is more frightening than him being there for 4 more years.

Every person that voted against Bush should be on those petitions linked above.

It is the only hope you have to stopping Bush, and I am the only Republican of the 100 original names on the petition.

If you have not done so, go to my website under Articles and read the DEMAND LETTER that I sent to Bush September 30, 2004 about 7 hours before the first debate and THEN - get this CLEARLY INTO YOUR HEADS -

that DEMAND LETTER was sent to DNC and Kerry too and they did not use it in the debates to evicerate Bush. CONSIDER THAT!

Both sides of the aisle are covering up 9-11 folks, who did it, who is profiting from it and they are AMERICANS.

Ashcroft was forced to resign due to that letter and I was advised from DC yesterday to NOT accept that as the sacrificial offering and let the rest of the DOERS OF 9-11 OFF THE HOOK!

Wake up Dems.

Karl

Which article is it? Could you post a link to it?

and never will the bigots that support/ed him.

I am wide awake and see that Democrats don't hate America, they care deeply for our country.

I truly believe that until we have a fair election, no one can tell me who is the President.

The Truth will come out.
A RED lie does not live forever.

And thanks for reminding me that Republicans have been infiltrating this Board and this country for a long, long time. They are still doing that and they will never get me to see like they do.

I heard the last part of some comentary on the radio yesterday about the exit polls, please take this with a grain of salt.

The report talked about the variance between the polls and the votes, this report said that allegedly the Dems knew when and where certain polls would be taken and arranged to flood the exit polls with Dems to sway the results.

I do not buy it, it took forever to get through the voting lines, how can you arrange for massive numbers of certain people to be exiting the voting booth at a particular time when you do not know if you will be waiting in line for 10 minutes or 2 hours?

You will be astounded.

publication or publications that you got your data for number 13. Pretty much sounds made up on the spot.

:kick:

I already believed it, but your list of reasons is mighty impressive. So what do we do about it?:shrug: