Sorry if this has already been posted. The threads about his are really long and the search function isn't working....
http://www.alternet.org/election04/2004/11/002646.htmlDigging into exit polls
Posted by Jan on November 4, 2004 @ 12:54PM
There was a lot of surprise among those who were tracking the early exit polls — leaked from media sources and campaign sources — that Kerry came up five points short in Florida and Ohio.....
Meanwhile, Raw Storypoints out that two states with paper trails for voting were within 0.5 percent of the margin of error of the exit polls:
New Hampshire, which has electronic voting but provides verified receipts, exit polling is within 0.1 percent of the actual vote. Kerry led by 3 percent in exit polling, and 2.9 percent in the actual vote.
Maine, the final state for which analysis of exit polling was conducted before the AP “resampled” their data, was in the Kerry column by 7.5 percent; the end result put Kerry up 8 percent, a variance of 0.5 percent. Maine has no electronic voting.
-snip-
In Florida, Bush led exit polling by CNN of more than three million voters by just 5355 votes. Yet he led by 326,000 in the end result. This morning, CNN changed their exit polling to favor Bush, saying that had overweighted African American voters.