A picture is worth 1000 stolen elections.

This is for all you ostriches out there.

And for the trolls, also.

is there a link to all those grapns? I would love to put a link in my away message for all my repub friends who link im just a sore loser when I say the election was stolen

Can somebody please make this a thread? I don't have 250 posts yet.

I was looking at the results from my county (Franklin) and found a major addition of votes to Bush's column.

Gahanna ward 1-B
http://www.franklincountyohio.gov/boe/04UnofficialResults/Unofficial%20Abstract%20of%20Votes%20General%202004.pdf

Bush has a little over 4000 votes. Kerry a couple hundred. If you look at the other races in ward 1-B only about 500 or so people voted in the ward. Where did these extra 3500 votes come from?!

Edit: these were on electonic voting machines FYI.

I've seen these damning looking bar charts. And I've also read questions about the validity of the early exit polls on which those charts are based, that they oversampled Democrats, etc. Which side do I believe? When such evidence is in dispute, other independent evidence needs to be found that either supports or contradicts the first evidence. And rather than just relying on other numbers or statistical analysis, it would be infinitely more damning if you could find actual rigged machines, tabulation systems, people who did the rigging, or documentation on the rigging.

evidence , your asking for evidence that disputes the Exit Poll data that was indeed the first evidence???

Hmmm.....sniff, sniff...sumpin kinda smells..

against fraud? Exit polling is an accepted thing around the world.

Could you give provide raw data please (numbers of votes)
and a link to your sources?

Also, i find it odd that NH seems to have problems with their electronic voting from your graphs when they use a very low-tech electronic system with a paper trail. They are not using BBV!!!!

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/news/archive/2004/01/28/national1609EST0710.DTL

Given this, it suggest that their may have been real problems with the exit polls, which were off by 8% for bush from your reading exit poll graph (41% vs 49%!)

and the paper trail is not used unless there is a reason to check.

pictures make is so much easier to understand.

Something major is wrong in Florida. Florida is a combination of scanners and touch screens. In most of the counties with the scanners the results were in line with what was expected. In many of the touch screen counties were are see huge discrepancies in Bush's favor of course. Something stinks and I think it's coming from Tallahassee.

You are using the 1 pm numbers. The later numbers were much tighter.

put up by CNN to make it appear Bush was winning.

I just found this post buried in a thread in the meeting room.

http://ustogether.org/Florida_Election.htm

The discrepencies are unbelievable.

Franklin County. 77.3% of voters registered Dems. Only 15.9% registered Reps. 58.5% of the votes reported FOR BUSH???

Holmes County. 72.7% of voters registered Dems. Only 21.3% registered Reps. 77% of the votes reported FOR BUSH???

Calhoun County. 82.4% of voters registered Dems. Only 11.9% registered Reps. 63.4% of the votes reported FOR BUSH???

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=111x37739

Get Corporations Out of our Vote! (Private corporations controlling the public vote)


Published on Thursday, November 4, 2004 by CommonDreams.org

The Ultimate Felony Against Democracy

by Thom Hartmann


"...About two years ago, I wrote a story for these pages, "If You Want To Win An Election, Just Control The Voting Machines," that exposed how Senator Chuck Hagel had, before stepping down and running for the U.S. Senate in Nebraska, been the head of the voting machine company (now ES&S) that had just computerized Nebraska's vote. The Washington Post (1/13/1997) said Hagel's "Senate victory against an incumbent Democratic governor was the major Republican upset in the November election." According to Bev Harris, Hagel won virtually every demographic group, including many largely black communities that had never before voted Republican. Hagel was the first Republican in 24 years to win a Senate seat in Nebraska, nearly all on unauditable machines he had just sold the state. And in all probability, Hagel run for President in 2008.

In another, later article I wrote at the request of MoveOn.org and which they mailed to their millions of members, I noted that in Georgia - another state that went all-electronic - "USA Today reported on Nov. 3, 2002, 'In Georgia, an Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll shows Democratic Sen. Max Cleland with a 49%-to-44% lead over Republican Rep. Saxby Chambliss. 'Cox News Service, based in Atlanta, reported just after the election (Nov. 7) that, "Pollsters may have goofed" because 'Republican Rep. Saxby Chambliss defeated incumbent Democratic Sen. Max Cleland by a margin of 53 to 46 percent. The Hotline, a political news service, recalled a series of polls Wednesday showing that Chambliss had been ahead in none of them.'" Nearly every vote in the state was on an electronic machine with no audit trail.

In the years since those first articles appeared, Bev Harris has published her book on the subject ("Black Box Voting"), including the revelation of her finding the notorious "Rob Georgia" folder on Diebold's FTP site just after Cleland's loss there; Lynn Landes has done some groundbreaking research, particularly her new investigation of the Associated Press, as have Rebecca Mercuri and David Dill. There's a new video out on the topic, Votergate, available at www.votergate.tv.

Congressman Rush Holt introduced a bill into Congress requiring a voter-verified paper ballot be produced by all electronic voting machines, and it's been co-sponsored by a majority of the members of the House of Representatives. The two-year battle fought by Dennis Hastert and Tom DeLay to keep it from coming to a vote, thus insuring that there will be no possible audit of the votes of about a third of the 2004 electorate, has fueled the flames of conspiracy theorists convinced Republican ideologues - now known to be willing to lie in television advertising - would extend their "ends justifies the means" morality to stealing the vote "for the better good of the country" they think single-party Republican rule will bring.

Most important, though, the rallying cry of the emerging "honest vote" movement must become: Get Corporations Out Of Our Vote!

Why have we let corporations into our polling places, locations so sacred to democracy that in many states even international election monitors and reporters are banned? Why are we allowing corporations to exclusively handle our vote, in a secret and totally invisible way? Particularly a private corporation founded, in one case, by a family that believes the Bible should replace the Constitution; in another case run by one of Ohio's top Republicans; and in another case partly owned by Saudi investors?

http://www.commondreams.org/views04/1104-38.htm

on this. Is this true throughout or did you just cherrypick
the states that support your theory? I'm totally for what you
are sellin' but I am still unconvinced.

Remember, its the first exit polls which were right.

Not the CNN manipulated exit polls which came later in the evening when they realized they had to match the BBV.

they knew they didn't need the EV in those 2 states if they could steal Ohio.

This is VERY telling! Thanks!

Are your numbers completely updated for all the states?

i wouldn't be the least bit surprised if the graphs you provided are accurate ... but i still need a link ...

people are going to question whether these graphs are accurate ...

do you have something we can use to vouch for their credibility ??

it also might be useful to show a chart for all 50 states ... otherwise, skeptics will questions whether you've "cherry-picked" the states to support your argument ...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

hi TIA ... thanks for providing the link ...

the problem is, though, that when you copied the link, it looks like you truncated the end of the link ...

the link you provided doesn't work ...

a general tip: ALWAYS test your links after you post them on DU ...

There has not been a lagit vote in the U.S. in decades, why start now? Fact is you are there boss don't loose site of that! The pileoftricks have been(flip-flopped)on you. Time to start indicting these slime balls. Or rub-em out I don't care how!


:smoke: :hippie:

at all.

Hack the Vote
By PAUL KRUGMAN
Published: December 2, 2003

Diebold Incorporated

Inviting Bush supporters to a fund-raiser, the host wrote, "I am committed to helping Ohio deliver its electoral votes to the president next year." No surprise there. But Walden O'Dell — who says that he wasn't talking about his business operations — happens to be the chief executive of Diebold Inc., whose touch-screen voting machines are in increasingly widespread use across the United States.

snip
What we do know about Diebold does not inspire confidence. The details are technical, but they add up to a picture of a company that was, at the very least, extremely sloppy about security, and may have been trying to cover up product defects.

Early this year Bev Harris, who is writing a book on voting machines, found Diebold software — which the company refuses to make available for public inspection, on the grounds that it's proprietary — on an unprotected server, where anyone could download it. (The software was in a folder titled "rob-Georgia.zip.") The server was used by employees of Diebold Election Systems to update software on its machines. This in itself was an incredible breach of security, offering someone who wanted to hack into the machines both the information and the opportunity to do so.

An analysis of Diebold software by researchers at Johns Hopkins and Rice Universities found it both unreliable and subject to abuse. A later report commissioned by the state of Maryland apparently reached similar conclusions. (It's hard to be sure because the state released only a heavily redacted version.)

Meanwhile, leaked internal Diebold e-mail suggests that corporate officials knew their system was flawed, and circumvented tests that would have revealed these problems. The company hasn't contested the authenticity of these documents; instead, it has engaged in legal actions to prevent their dissemination.

snip
But there's nothing paranoid about suggesting that political operatives, given the opportunity, might engage in dirty tricks. Indeed, given the intensity of partisanship these days, one suspects that small dirty tricks are common. For example, Orrin Hatch, the chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, recently announced that one of his aides had improperly accessed sensitive Democratic computer files that were leaked to the press.

This admission — contradicting an earlier declaration by Senator Hatch that his staff had been cleared of culpability — came on the same day that the Senate police announced that they were hiring a counterespionage expert to investigate the theft. Republican members of the committee have demanded that the expert investigate only how those specific documents were leaked, not whether any other breaches took place. I wonder why.

The point is that you don't have to believe in a central conspiracy to worry that partisans will take advantage of an insecure, unverifiable voting system to manipulate election results. Why expose them to temptation?

... perhaps a notch or two over an Internet poll. I'm afraid this data would just not hold up in a court of law. It might make us feel better but there doesn't appear to have any tangible value.

nt

Votes were spoiled in the former, lost in Cyberspace in the latter.

:kick:

:kick:

Possible? After 9/11, top secret stolen election to not send the world a weak message post 9/11? CNN had to change their exit polls after midnight... Could it be the powers that be do not want a change in leadership in the middle of a war post 9/11?

This is our real battle.

Now stop blaming the gays, John Kerry's campaign, abortion rights, whatever the hell else we've been bitching about.

WAKE UP! SUCK IT UP! FIGHT THE REAL ENEMY!

Our enemy is the GOP and voter fraud.

I got sucked into the mess at first, too. Now I'm just pissed at those of you who want to blame the wrong people. It's human nature when hurt to find something to blame.

Well, we can blame ourselves. I didn't do enough to stop voter fraud and now we're ALL paying the price for such short-sightedness.

Open your eyes, DU. We need to get on the same page as TruthIsAll and others who know about this.

The Blame Game needs to be directed at the BBBV= Black Box Bush Voting machines and KKKKarl's nasty Elves.

Thanks for posting this TruthIsAll. I knew the had stolen it again, but seeing these graphs has truly left me speechless!

a week ago many DUers were sneering at polls. Now they gobble them up to prove election fraud. Face it, exit polls are not proof. I believe there was fraud, but I have no proof. Does any one have actual proof of fraud?

Lex (1000+ posts) Fri Nov-05-04 12:53 PM
Original message
The NYT says EXIT POLLS are used to Protect the Integrity of the VOTE


Why are people just rolling over and discounting what happened?

The exit polls are used all over the world to monitor for voter fraud!

Read what this New York Times article said just last month:

---------------------

Exit Polls to Protect the Vote

By MARTIN PLISSNER
Published: October 17, 2004

WASHINGTON — Since the 1960's, the exit poll, that staple of election-night television, has been used along with other tools to declare winners when the polls close in each state, and its accuracy is noted later when the actual vote count proves it right. A landmark exception, of course, came in 2000, when the networks initially gave the decisive Florida vote to Al Gore.

But now exit polls are being used in some places to monitor the official vote count itself, either to validate the outcome or to mount a challenge to it.

That has happened in several countries in the last year, and in the United States one organization plans to use exit polls in five closely contested states in November to measure whether there have been impediments to voting.

Last fall, an American firm, whose polling clients have included Al Gore and John Edwards, was hired by some international foundations to conduct an exit poll in the former Soviet republic of Georgia during a parliamentary election. On Election Day, the firm, Global Strategy Group, projected a victory for the main opposition party. When the sitting government counted the votes, however, it announced that its own slate of candidates had won. Supporters of the opposition stormed the Parliament, and the president, Eduard A. Shevardnadze, later resigned under pressure from the United States and Russia.

Full article here:

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/10/17/weekinreview/17plis.h...

C'mon, what the hell, give it up

Faun Otter (81 posts) Wed Nov-03-04 11:03 AM
Original message
Exit polls analysis versus reported vote count


Here is my analysis of exit polls Vs. supposed ballot counts.

Method
Grab one site which lists the exit polls before they were "corrected.” Correction is the procedure by which the exit polls are retrofitted to match the figures provided by the vote counting machines. It is easily done by changing the exit poll results, such as the 2.00 a.m. flip-flop of the Nevada exit poll scores which was done without any change to the sample size.

A slightly less obvious sleight of hand is to alter the weighting. Weighting is the name for a multiplier used to correct sample subgroups to match the proportions in the whole of a state population. Thus an exit poll can be ‘corrected’ by saying something to the effect,
“Oh well, the vote results show we must have under sampled Republicans and therefore we’ll multiply that subgroup of the exit poll sample by 1.5 to make our results fit the figures the ballot counting machines are spitting out.”

Here is one list as an example of raw exit poll data:
http://www.bluelemur.com/index.php?p=386

Then take a look at the results by state, such as on this chart:
http://news.yahoo.com/electionresults

There is a bit of math involved but don't worry, I taught market research at a University - a place where Republicans fear to tread, according to the media’s own polls! The Bush people argue that the exit polls are skewed by the methodology employed. It is odd that they don’t say what that error producing part of the methodology might be. A skew means a systematic error is introduced by the test protocol and causes a consistent shift in one direction.

IF this was true, then all the exit polls would show the same sort of shift from 'actual' results.

The GOP offer an alternative argument that the exit polls are not large enough samples and therefore the results are off by a large random error.

IF this was true, then the exit polls should scatter on either side of the actual result,, especially if the final result is close to 50/50.

What do we actually see when comparing exit polls with actual results?

There is skew - but ONLY in states which the Republicans had previously stated to be target states in play. The skew is in the same direction every time; that is to say in favor of Bush.

The exit poll results are not scattered about the mean as the alternative theory predicts. They are all on the Kerry side of the vote counts as issued by the states except for a hand full of states which hit amazingly close to the exit poll figures.

Here are the figures. They list the four contemporaneous and uncorrected exit polls. Kerry is listed first and Bush second in each pair of figures. Published = the figure presented as the vote count as of 10.00 a.m. EST on 11/3/04

AZ Poll one 45-55 Final 45-55 Published 44-55
CO Poll one 48-51 2nd 48-50 3rd 46-53 Published 46-53
LA Poll one 42-57 Final 43-56 Published 42-57
MI Poll one 51-48 Published 51-48 Published 51-48
IOWA Poll one 49-49 3rd 50-48 Final 49-49 Published 49-50
NM Poll one 50-48 2nd 50-48 3rd 50-48 Final 50-49 Published 49-50
ME 3rd 55-44 Published 53-45
NV: 3rd 48-49 Published 48-51
AR: 3rd 45-54 Published 45-54
MO Final 46-54 Published 46-53

These tracking polls were right where you would expect them to be and within the margin of error. However, if we look at some other states, the figures are beyond curious. either the exit polls were wrong or the vote count is wrong:

WI Poll one 52-48 3rd 51-46 Final 52-47 Published 50-49
PA Poll one 60-40 3rd 54-45 Final 53-46 Published 51-49
OH Poll one 52-48 2nd 50-49 3rd 50-49 Final 51-49 Published 49-51
FL Poll one 51-48 2nd 50-49 3rd 50-49 Final 51-49 Published 47-52
MINN Poll one 58-40 3rd 58-40 Final 54-44 Published 51-48
NH Poll one 57-41 3rd 58-41 Published 50-49
NC Poll one 3rd 49-51 Final 48-52 Published 43-56

Taking the figures and measuring the size and direction of the poll to supposed vote count discrepancy, we find:

WI Bush plus 4%
PA Bush plus 5%
OH Bush plus 4%
FL Bush plus 7%
MINN Bush plus 7%
NH Bush plus 15%
NC Bush plus 9%

Our election results appear to have been tampered with to give Bush some unearned electoral votes.

Again.

Faun

:)

His work makes my eyes cross. Sorry. Can someone tell me if the graphs exactly represent what he's saying?

Nevada matched exit polls to precinct results at 9:39PM with just a 0.1 variance. Nevada has a very secure paper audit trail on their evitong machines.

Maine at 11:03 PM also matched with just a 0.5 variance. Maine does not use EVoting machines.


Minnesota at 10:07pm was +5 variance for Bush.

Michigan at 9:29pm was +5 variance for Bush.

All times are PST.

At 1:36am CST the exit polling data was documented to have been modified at the source. All exit polling results since that time are highly suspect. We need to obtain the original raw exit poll data to determine what happened. See below as Kerry actually LOSES votes after the redo the data. Swing states I re-checked after that time began matching up alot more closely with the actual results. They fixed the results to match the Bush victory.

BEFORE:


AFTER:

Too late to think about it. Need sleep.

1) What is the probability that of the 13 exit polls, exactly those eight (8) WITHOUT paper trails would ALL deviate FOR Bush by more than 5%?

2) What is the probability that of the 13 exit polls, that exactly those five (5) WITH paper trails would be within a tight MOE and go for Kerry?

What is the joint probability of 1) and 2) occuring due to chance?

We can't discount the "fraud" accusations just yet. Thank you TruthIsAll....

:kick:

This needs to get out! We got screwed!

Actually, we should send this. However, lets not forget for one second that these media outlets are highly invested in this status quo because they've already been complicent with the fascists. No need to abandon them now.

:kick:

tia

In 1980 the South had 26 Democratic Senators, today it has 4. If you look at the national "red versus blue" map at both State and County level it is not hard to see that the DNC has become very isolated from the mainstream of this nation.

2 to 1 Americans classify themselves as conservatives and many moderates vote to the right, not the left on many issues.

Bush has one Achilles Heel that will bring him down, take the wind out of his Imperial Sails and that is 9-11.

I was part of the 9-11 Confronting the Evidence in NYC this year. I was part of the criminal complaint that was delivered to Eliot Spitzer on October 28, 2004.

Over 55 million voted against and many of those voters were ecumenical Christians you people are blindly bashing. They were Conservative Republicans and Libertarians that crossed over to try to stop the Bush Junta and the fascism that is represents.

Right here in Arkansas - two key counties that NEVER vote REP did vote Republican this year. Jefferson and Nevada counties and there were others.

The problem with DNC is DNC and that it represents the fringe left and that is NOT America folks. 2 to 1 says this nation is a conservative nation and one that puts certain values front and center every time.

www.karlschwarz.com

http://www.reopen911.org/petition.php

http://www.justicefor911.org /

All of this talk about running Hillary Clinton in 2008. The RNC has been ready to destroy her since 1994. The strategy that took the House and Senate away from Clinton was designed and largely financed by me. Again, run Hillary, rash into the side of the mountain. They are just waiting for another stupid DNC move.

I took a stand for America, freedom, a turning away from Imperialism and fascism. I have received hundreds of emails from Dems asking what to do now. Frankly, DNC is not "resuscitate-able" in its current form. Lest no one noticed, Bush now controls a stronger US Senate and that is more frightening than him being there for 4 more years.

Every person that voted against Bush should be on those petitions linked above.

It is the only hope you have to stopping Bush, and I am the only Republican of the 100 original names on the petition.

If you have not done so, go to my website under Articles and read the DEMAND LETTER that I sent to Bush September 30, 2004 about 7 hours before the first debate and THEN - get this CLEARLY INTO YOUR HEADS -

that DEMAND LETTER was sent to DNC and Kerry too and they did not use it in the debates to evicerate Bush. CONSIDER THAT!

Both sides of the aisle are covering up 9-11 folks, who did it, who is profiting from it and they are AMERICANS.

Ashcroft was forced to resign due to that letter and I was advised from DC yesterday to NOT accept that as the sacrificial offering and let the rest of the DOERS OF 9-11 OFF THE HOOK!

Wake up Dems.

Karl