Interesting Iowa scenario: Gephardt-Dean-Edwards-Kerry

mot78

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Sun Jan-18-04 09:15 PM
Original message

Interesting Iowa scenario: Gephardt-Dean-Edwards-Kerry

Based on the polls, it doesn't seem like Kerry will come in fourth, but what if this is the order of the candidates? Gephardt would stay alive for a few more weeks, but not become the "anti-Dean" because Clark would snag that title from him in NH. Dean would be wounded, enough for Clark to pounce on him in NH. Edwards would be somewhat viable, but if Clark does well in NH, or even wins big there, Edwards is toast on February 3rd. Kerry is no longer a threat to anyone if he finishes fourth.

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spooky3

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Sun Jan-18-04 09:22 PM
Response to Original message

1. I don't think Edwards' chances will be affected much by NH.

There are a number of people who are much better known there and he has chosen not to spend much time campaigning there, to focus on Iowa. So, even a fifth place showing in NH doesn't say much about his overall chances if he has a strong showing in Iowa. However, if he is a distant fourth in Iowa, does similarly or worse in NH, and doesn't win SC, I would say he'll have a difficult time continuing.

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mot78

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Sun Jan-18-04 09:23 PM
Response to Reply #1

2. IMO If Clark does well/wins NH he'll steal whatever momentum Edwards has

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Kathleen04

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Sun Jan-18-04 09:59 PM
Response to Reply #2

3. My random scenario:

IA-Gephardt, Dean, Edwards, Kerry

NH-Clark, Dean, Gephardt, Edwards, Kerry

February 3rd:

Oklahoma-Edwards
South Carolina-Edwards
Arizona-Clark
New Mexico-Clark
North Dakota-Clark
Missouri-Gephardt
Delaware-Dean

I'm not putting any stock in that scenario..just putting it out there. :)

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Kathleen04

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Sun Jan-18-04 10:29 PM
Response to Reply #3

5. kick

:kick:

What, is everyone done strategizing?

I said I was earlier, but I lied. ;)

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Jackson Smith

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Sun Jan-18-04 10:00 PM
Response to Original message

4. That finish would be the most beneficial to Clark.

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