In a close race, any little thing can flip the outcome. Did the Mary Cheney non-scandal scandal do that? God, I hope not, but if 59,000,000 Americans could vote for Bush, well, then, I don't know. This passage from the Newsweek special seems to indicate that it had a difference in the outcome. I hope it's not true, but if it is, I'm just even more sorry about the state of the American body politic. Kerry said
nothing wrong. The whole thing was a load of B.S. Yet, it seems to have cost him among some swing voters and dominated the news cycle in a negative way for Kerry. The story wasn't about how Kerry had cleaned Bush's clock a third time, it was a story about Mary Cheney. And I worry that
maybe, just maybe it made a difference in the final outcome, mainly by blunting Kerry's momentum.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6423994/site/newsweek/Kerry was sure he had won the final debate. When the debate team came onto the plane afterward, Kerry, all smiles, hugged Shrum hard and said, "Thanks." Shrum felt redeemed. He hadn't felt so much affection from Kerry since the night they had won the Iowa caucuses back in January.
But in a conference room a few minutes away from the auditorium of Arizona State University, Republican pollster Ed Goeas knew better. About 30 minutes into the debate, Kerry was asked by moderator Bob Schieffer of CBS whether he thought homosexuality was a matter of choice or birth. In his answer, Kerry brought up Dick Cheney's gay daughter, Mary. Goeas's focus group—five Republicans, five Democrats, five independents—had a "huge negative reaction," Goeas later recalled. The group seemed to react differently to Kerry after his remark about Mary. Their comments, recorded on notecards after the Democratic candidate answered each question, became more wary and suspicious: "He didn't answer the question" or "He answered the question with an attack on the president." When the debate was over, 11 of the 15 cast votes for Bush.
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Kerry's remark was a break for the Bush campaign. The flap over the Mary Cheney remark diverted attention from Bush's performance and put the spotlight squarely on Kerry. Mary Beth Cahill did not help matters by saying after the debate that Mary was "fair game" (the veep's daughter was, in fact, long out of the closet, a gay activist herself). Kerry's aides insisted that the candidate's remark had not been intentional, that he was just trying to say something nice about Mary but sounded "klutzy" instead. (Indeed, both Tad Devine and Shrum had grimaced when they heard Kerry make the remark as they nervously watched the debate from their trailer.)
The explanations were too late. So-called security moms who had been initially inclined to vote for Bush, then swung toward Kerry after the first two debates, were put off by his seemingly gratuitous attempt to drag Cheney's daughter into the race. Kerry's momentum was stopped. With less than three weeks to go, both sides were claiming narrow leads. The race looked dead even.