Who are the vulnerable Republicans for 2006?

Who are the vulnerable Democrats?

PS: House or Senate.

and not in the south

possibly of Talent of MO with a well known candidate

All we need is a 20 seat swing...we did it before in '82 and we can do it again; we just need to go after the Chimp Full Force.

California 26 (San Mateo): David Dreier
Election Result: 116,218 (54%)

Colorado 4: Marilyn Musgrave
Election Result: 114,325 (52%)

Colorado 7: Bob Beauprez
Election Result: 114,969 (55%)

Connecticut 2: Robert Simmons
Election Result: 165,558 (54%)

Connecticut 4: Christopher Shays
Election Result: 149,891 (52%)

Florida 13: Katherine Harris
Election Result: 190,231 (55%)

Georgia 11: Phil Gingrey
Election Result: 120,494 (57%)

Illinois 6: Henry Hyde
Election Result: 131,229 (56%)

Illinois 11: Jerry Weller
Election Result: 172,975 (59%)

Indiana 2: Chris Chocola
Election Result: 140,426 (54%)

Indiana 8: John Hostettler
Election Result: 145,761 (53%)

Indiana 9: Mike Sodrel
Election Result: 142,183 (49%) – open race

Iowa 1: Jim Nussle
Election Result: 159,114 (55%)

Kansas 2: Jim Ryun
Election Result: 162,134 (56%)

Kentucky 4: Geoff Davis
Election Result: 161,025 (54%)

Minnesota 6: Mark Kennedy
Election Result: 205,586 (54%)

Here is a list of Senate seats that we could either pick up, or that we better make sure we don't lose.


Indiana – Luger is up for re-election. If he runs, he’s a shoe-in, but he’ll be 76, so be thinking of a possible candidate.

Massachusetts- If Kennedy retires, the Dems better get a good replacement lined up so we don’t lose it to Weld or Romney, the bastards.

West Virginia – If Byrd retires, the Dems will need a solid candidate in this right-leaning state.

Maine- Snowe is up for re-election, and a conservative could challenge her in the primaries. If so, we’ll need a solid candidate ready.

Mississippi- Lott’s up for re-election. Apparently, the Mississippi AG Mike Moore is pretty tough and may run against him. Plus, can you imagine how motivated the african american population in Mississippi must be to get this racist out?

Pennsylvania- Santorum. WE NEED to win this one. Maybe Gov Rendell could step up? Ed seems like a good guy.

Missouri- Talent’s a freshman, moderate state, room for an upset.

Nevada- Ensign’s up for re-election. Nevada almost went for Kerry, this should be looked into. Growing hispanic population helded us get Colorado . . .

Ohio- DeWine is very moderate, but vulnerable. Rep. Ted Strickland is from southeast Ohio (red area), so he could appeal to rural voters, plus he’s tough, smart, a good speaker and progressive. Another possibility is Columbus Mayor Coleman. He campaigned with Kerry a lot. He's an african american in his mid-late 40s and incredibly sharp. I don't know his exact favorabilty rating but he is VERY popular in Columbus. He's done a lot to upgrade the city and most republicans I know in Cbus think he's a good guy.

Rhode Island- Chafee’s up for re-election, who knows if he’ll even run as a republican. He might run as a dem, or not at all. Keep our eyes on this one.

Tennessee- If Frist doesn’t run, Harold Ford could try for it, and have a good chance.

Texas - Hutchinson might run for Governor, so this seat would be open. Maybe Ron Kirk could run again. Slim chances on this one, but who knows.

Virginia- George Allen. NeoCon, get Mark Warner after this guy. This would be a HUGE win, and possible.

Afterall, that's where the Presidents are coming from these days. My state, Maryland, is heavily Democratic, and people seem to be itching to dump Ehrlich (which is good, as he is rumored to have presidential ambitions.)
I'll try to compile a list of Gubernatorial elections come 2006 (and 2005 in some states).

I hear Schumer's toying with the idea too. I don't live in New York, but if Spitzer got it he could use it as a launching pad to the presidency someday.

He's an honest to gods progressive in the state Senate from my district. I wonder if he'd run for mayor of NYC. It would be nice to have a strong Dem in City Hall again.

Connecticut Governor Jodi Rell (R)... she moved quickly to distance herself from her disgraced boss John Rowland. But, my question is - how could she not have known about all the scandals going down over the past 10 years under Johnny Boy? Was she blind, naive, or just lying?

Gov Pataki in NY... my choice to replace him is Eliot Spitzer.

We need a good candidate against Romney as well.

:insert saluting smiley:

West Virginia makes me nervous. I like the odds in PA, VA and NV especially. But the Dems need five pick-ups to take back the Senate don't they? Has a party ever had five pickups in the Senate in a single year? (Let me guess: 1994.)

I think you're right that PA, VA and neveda are our best chances. Not a sure thing, but potential. Losing Byrd's seat is the biggest possible setback we could have, and perhaps Kennedy's too. There are three other potential pick up though in my view.
Rhode Island for one. Chafee is obviously fed up with Bush and I don't forsee him running as a republican. My guess is he'll either not run, run as an independent or run as a democrat. If he did run and win as an independent, he'd probably caucus with the dems, and he'd have to take challenges from the right and left, so we could get a legit pickup.
Tennessee will depend 100% if Frist runs again. If he does, then it's off the table, unless he really really screws up in the senate. If he decideds to just prepare for his presidential bid, then rep. Harold Ford will most likely jump in. Ford is very polished and assertive, I think he'd have a shot at the title, but it's tough to say. This one's a bit of a stretch.
Ohio. DeWine isn't particularly vulernable, but he's not safe by any means. The Ohio governors race will attract a lot of strong candidates, but hopefully one will jump into this race. In two years the voters who at the last minute decided to vote Bush might realize it was a mistake and take it out on their nerdy republican senator. I say Strickland or Coleman for this spot, they'd both be fantastic candidates.

And the only Democratic candidate with any chance against her is Tom Allen, and that would be a huge gamble since he has a very safe seat in Congress. Our challenger to Olympia will probably come from the legislature and have 0 name recognition. At least Chellie Pingree had some stature when she ran against Susan Collins, and she was easily defeated in a race Democrats really should have won...

Barring some unforseen event, Olympia has a safe seat. Our best bet is that she gets worn out swimming against the tide in the Senate and decides to join Jock in retirement. That would make the race wide open.

I thought Collins was much more vulnerable than Snowe. I can sort of understand the resistance to lose a Senator with seniority. But I don't understand the resistance to losing Collins. I don't get why the Dems didn't run a campaign underscoring the importance of taking back the Senate, that a vote for Pingree was a vote for a Democratic majority and a check on Bush and the House. It kills me, still, that they didn't do that! It will be much more difficult this time. Won't it?

and she had a few campaign finance issues after the campaign. Hannah Pingree is in the Legislature now and could run, but I just don't see anyone making it a race. Tom could run, but I think he knows it will be an uphill climb and he wouldn't want to risk a safe seat in the House (although I also cannot see the 1st district electing a Repub anytime soon either).

The campaign never got off the ground last time. The Lady in Red had the full support of the media (I recall Pat Callaghan practically gushing over her) and with the GOP using 9/11 to full advantage, Susan had a much easier campaign than she should have. With her high profile now, I don't know if we can unseat her, either.

offhand, I'd say ALL OF 'EM.

He is a literal Nazi, which could turn off PA voters if they were informed. I'm hoping a strong candidate will run, like Bob Casey Jr., the state treasurer, but probably not.

2006 will be my first elections, and I'm looking forward to kicking Talent out.

if he's lost another million jobs or so, and his friends at Fed have stopped holding down the interest rates to protect him, and iraq is an even worse hell-hole, and one of the tin-pot nuke-u-lar dictators has done more than just talk about going thermo, the GOP MIGHT feel the heat. Depends on whether Limpballs and friends can keep reality at bay.

maybe former Governor Kitzhaber.

ES&S & Sequoia voting systems you vote WE DECIDE

Mark Warner (D) lost by 5 points in 1996 against John Warner (R) when nobody knew who Mark Warner was. Now that Mark Warner is a very popular governor and will be out of job after next year because of term limits, I think the Democrats have a real shot in Virginia.