The road to '08 begins with '06 Governors races

If 2000 and 2004 have proved anything--it counts which party controls the Governorship. The House and Senate are important, but it is likely, unless we are in a depression that the GOP will continue to control the House and Senate. Where the Democrats can make serious inroads is in the Governors races in 2006--and I feel that is where much of the emphasize should be put. This year we have held our own in the Governors races while the GOP made gains in the house and Senate. We also made gains in state legislative races--so on a state level the Dems are showing strength. Let's try and continue this next year.

These are the races I feel are safely Democratic in the next cycle ('06) of Governors races:
Arizona (Napolitano)
Illinois (Rod Blagovinich)
Kansas (Sebelius)
Maine (Baldacci)
Michigan (Granholm)
New Mexico (Richardson)
Pennsylvania (Rendell)
Oregon (Kulongoski)
Tennessee (Bredesen)

Similarly I think the GOP will hold governorships in: California (yes, I think Arnold is unbeatable at this point), Idaho, Nebraska and South Dakota.

These are the competitive seats as I see them:
Massachusetts: There is no reason for a conservative Republican to be governor of this most Democratic of states. All we need is a strong candidate to run against Romney. Who? Would Barney Frank consider it?

Rhode Island: Similarly this is also a very Democratic state--Is Carcieri likely to run again? What Dem could give him a tough race? And please not York again.

Maryland: Townsend lost to Erlich narrowly, but I don't see her as the person who can win it, Maryland DUers who would be a good candidate to give this traditional dem state a Dem Governor?

Minnesota: I don't think Tim Pawlenty is unbeatable. Would one of Wellstone's sons be interested?

New York: If, rumors are correct and Chuck Shumer runs for Governor (yes, I know he was just re-elected to senate) then it is likely that this could be a major pick up for us, and it's about time. If Schumer wins he would appoint his replacement in the senate.

Arkansas--Huckabee is not likely to run again (third term?) and this could be a Democratic pick up with the right candidate. It was close in '02. Would Gen. Wes Clark be interested?

Iowa--I think that Gov. Vilsack is going to run for president, so Republicans will really be going after this seat, what Dem could hold it?

Wisconsin: I think Jim Doyle is favored, but he is not overly popular and if Tommy Thompson runs again (as is rumored) it would be a real slugfest.

Colorado--This state is trending Democratic and maybe someone like Udall could win it if he runs?

Oklahoma--The GOP will really be targeting this. Henry won largely thanks to the 14% and Independent got in 2002.

Hawaii--apparently GOP Governor Lingle is popular, but the states dem tradition and organized labor (which pulled it out for Kerry) will keep it close, can we find a candidate who can win it?

Alaska--Murkowski's daughter won re-election to Senate but can daddy win re-election as Governor?

Connecticut: If Chris Dodd runs, as rumored, it would be a probable democratic pickup.

Now the big three in my view:
Florida: Jebbie is not going to run again and we need to get this seat. Who do you think could win it for us? What about Betty Castor? she lost the senate race relatively narrowly.

Ohio: Taft is not popular and this is ripe for a pick up. But again, who can do it for the Dems? Who can be the next John Glenn?

Texas: I think Rick Perry is in trouble and a strong democrat, maybe Ken Bensten? could win it? What about Martin Frost?

If we play our cards right, this could be a big cycle for Democrats in Governors races. We need to find strong candidates though. Really in preparing for '08 I think the Governors races will hold the key.

Also, I don't think that GA or AL are locks for the Repukes. Both of them got elected by beating Dems in 2002. In GA, the Governor is in trouble b/c of the conferedate flag issue. In AL, the Governor tried to raise taxes.

Doug Duncan is also a possible Maryland Governor option. I'm a Montgomery County, MD resident so I had to mention his name. Don't know who I'll support yet.

- David

And I don't think Duncan gets the call. I know he wants it BAD. But the DNC made a pretty clear statement by giving O'Malley a prime time (at least as that term used to be described) speaking role at the Convention.

Mayor Martin has already been targeted by the National Dem party as a rising star.

He delivered the Saturday radio address several times in the last 2 years, and he was a featured speaker at this year's convention.

Mayor Martin will be our governor in '06, and he is wildly popular with every minority group in Maryland.

He has that rare Clintonesque quality, which Kerry didn't have: Martin is incredibly warm, kind, and caring, but he will also invite you into the nearest alley for an ass whoopin'!

We regained I think 13 seats in the House here and retained the Senate, so the DFL (Democrat-Farmer-Labor) is getting stronger again.
I have no idea if one of Wellstone's sons would like to be involved with politics in the state anymore, but it could be possible.

I believe that this is the road back to the Whitehouse.
(well, this and cleaning out those damn machines)

We put together a coherent message that appealed to mainstream values (schools, transportation, anti-regressive taxation) and we put together a hell of ground game that knocked the Repubs flat on their asses. We were door-knocking out in the suburbs back in May and it apparently paid huge dividends.

It's too bad Salazar can't be both Governor and Senator at once. He's such a perfect fit for our state. That being said, I doubt Udall would make a good statewide candidate, because he'll get flak from being a Boulderite.

That leaves former Denver mayor Wellington Webb, or current Denver mayor John Hickenlooper. "Loop" is hugely popular, and would win Denver by at least 50%. Add to that Boulder, Pueblo and some of the I-70 corridor liberals and I think he'd make a strong contender.

There are also some names from the General Assembly, I just don't remember them now.

Also, dark horse candidate Gary Hart may resurface. I hear he's itching to do something and since he missed out on the Senate race, this is his chance.

Plus the old scandals will probably hurt him some. What we need is a real dynamo, or someone who just screams Colorado, the way Salazar does.

There are other posters on here who know more about the state politics than I do. I'm just tossing out some general knowledge. That being said, my money's on Hickenlooper.

First off, I'm not a resident of any of these states, but I'm dropping names that I've read at other times in various articles over the past couple of years.

New York - Strong opportunity at a pickup. Methinks that Pataki will retire or run for the Senate against Hillary. Giuliani was interested, but he's been bitten by the Presidential bug and a run for governor would be a distraction from that.

At this point, the issue's going to be the Democratic Primary - both Schumer and Eliot Spitzer are set to run in a battle of the titans. I wish one or the other would agree to have the Senate seat.

Minnesota - Don't know enough about Minnesota politics, and I know nothing about either of these people. But I've heard mentioned that some people named Judi Detcher and Mike Hatch will run.

Texas - Probably not a pickup. Kay Bailey Hutchison's likely to run. She'll abandon her Senate seat however, so it's a possible senate pickup. Frankly, though, while Texas will one day be more competitive, my own hunch is it's not gonna happen while Bush is President.

Ohio - The top Democratic contenders appear to be Rep. Ted Strickland and Rep. Sherrod Brown. Oh, and Jerry Springer also wants to run.

Arkansas - I wonder if Fmr. Transportation Secretary Rodney Slater (black guy to boot) will run? He's a favorite of Clinton, but he opted not to run in '06. Wes Clark could run too, but my guess is he'll run in '08 for President or try to position himself as a potential Secretary of State or Defense.

Maryland - Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley is the man to beat. He's very popular, telegenic, and touted as a future President. Of course, so was Kathleen Townsend, but from what I've read, O'Malley's no Townsend.

Alabama - Bob Riley will probably be defeated in the primary and there may be a strong challenge either w/in the Republican Party or outside it by Roy Moore. I have to say that I really am pulling for Riley here. He's a conservative evangelical Christian, with whom I probably have major disagreements, and from what I've read he was a partisan hack in the House. But his valiant effort to reform the tax code was truly courageous and I only wish the national Democratic Party had invested in it and upped Black support (it even got the support of high-wage earners, but lost because of lower-class voters and Blacks whose taxes it would lower! All b/c the club for growth and Grover Norquist ran a multimillion-dollar smear campaign and bought a victory on lies - and Alabama will rot because of it).

Georgia - I've read that Georgia's governor is not popular, so it may be a potential pickup. I've read that Secretary of State Cathy Cox will probably be the nominee or the Lt. Governor - somebody Taylor.

Alabama (for sure) and Georgia (possibly) from likely GOP to competitve.

I think we need more emphasis on governorships on DU, and via our party in general. The more I look at election problems last week it screams most of them were typical suppression stuff, long before the votes were counted. Like a significant decrease in polling places in Democratic counties in Ohio. The Ohio governor and secretary of state are Republicans who decided not to order electronic machines that money had already been set aside for, but stuck with punch cards in most areas. The counties that were expecting electronic machines had already cut polling stations and poll workers, plus budgetary cuts to accomodate the $133 million that was set aside for the electronic machines. That money is still doing nothing. You had 5 and 6 hour waits in those Democratic counties with insufficient polling stations. If we had more Democratic governors and high statewide officials, that type of finesse theft would not happen. Just think what Florida 2000 would have been like if we had a Democrat in office instead of Katherine Harris.

Anyway, no one mentioned Nevada, my state. Northern Nevada congressman Jim Gibbons passed on a senate race versus Harry Reid this year to run for an open governors seat in 2006, replacing 2-term Republican Kenny Guinn. If Las Vegas Democratic mayor Oscar Goodman runs, we have a very good chance to win the race. Goodman is extremely popular across party lines in Las Vegas, a celebrity mayor. Otherwise, I see Gibbons winning the race.

...as the Lieutenant Governor under a popular Governor.

We do need to hold it. Also, in New Jersey--If Corzine runs for Governor (also the rumor) he may win.

her senate race was very close which so i think she would make a good candidate for governor. janet reno is another good choice.

i hear jerry springer is going to run for governor of ohio.

i would go with martin frost in texas.

...can Bob Graham run again?

and I think he is likely to seek a second term as governor.

then he introduced a Constitutional Amendment requiring all U.S. Senators to be selected.

out to be the pumper upper of the Republican party that he promissed. Dems did great in CA last week and Arnold hasn't been able to muscle his way through the legislature as he expected.

Granted a lot of young people and immigrants think he's OK and he's been fine on the environment and health care, he has huge weaknesses on education and progressivity in the tax code (essentially, he's pro-corporate and is uninterested in letting wealth accumulate in the middle and working class).

These are themes the Democrats will be running on in 2008 and if they could work through the arguments in 2006 in CA in a way that makes people see that any Democrat is better than Arnold, they will be a very good footing for 2008.

Arnold has a 69% approval rating.
That could change as we get close to the 2006 election.

We'll see where that number goes when people start contrasting political philosophies.

State Treasurer Phil Angelides and Attorney General Bill Lockyer are going to vie for the Democratic nomination, but Arnold is very popular. Arnold will win over independents and split the Democratic vote, just like last time. The only possible candidate I can see making a run of it is Dianne Feinstein, who will run for re-election to the senate.

Granted, Arnold's pissed off his fundie wing and his far right Republican wing by being liberal on social issues, being somewhat of an environmentalist, and working with Democrats, but he didn't need their vote last time (they all voted for Tom McClintock) and I doubt he'll need it in 2006.

I don't mean to sound callous in saying that, but as much as Schwarzenegger irritates us, he's a relatively moderate Republican in a state that we virtually have guaranteed in presidential elections. I don't think that he's a top priority.

...danger because he cloaks his extremism regarding the corporatocracy in social moderation.

That's where the Republican party is headed as red states get bluer. If Democrats can't fight this kind of thing in the blue states, we might as well call it a life.

voted against the recall or for the recall and for someone other than Arnold than for the recall and for Arnold. He would not have won a regular election (which is why there was a recall election).

I believe that Angelides or Lockyer could beat Arnold, but I don' think it would be easy. I think Demcorats better start thinking seriously about wanting to beat Arnold because it could provide a huge upside for 2008 (it'll be great momentum) and, althought I think theres a great deal at stake in CA for the future of the Democratic party, honestly, the Demcorats will lose little momentum for 2008 if they lose to Arnold.

For one, his major issue -- a state lottery -- just became law on election day. Second, he has wide spread support across party lines. For instance a lot of people in Oklahoma's horse breeding/racing industry, some 47,000 people, support him because he has worked to help the industry. Many are Repugs.people here like him and his term has been productive.

Finally, the Repugs don't have much in the way to offer up as candidates. Mary Fallin, our Repug Lt. Governor, isn't particularly popular. JC Watts has said he will not run. word is Steve Largent remains so devastated at losing some 2 years later, he doesn't want any part of it. Nickles could run, but I doubt it. He got out of the Senate b/c he wants to go into private business.

All the governorships that flipped from the traditional partisanship of the state in 2002 will be fascinating to watch in 2006 -- Oklahoma, Maryland, Hawaii, Kansas, Wyoming, Tennessee. I might have forgotten one or two. Can't count Massachusetts because we're on a strange losing streak there.

I'm glad Brad Henry is popular and has a good chance at re-election. I doubted he would win in 2002 but Oklahoma DUers were adamant he would. It surprises me Largent is apparently not interested. If I remember, he lost by only 2000 or 3000 votes despite the bullshit explosion and former Republican Richardson taking something like 15%.

He runs the Cell phone lobby, from what I have heard. Richardson, in my opinion, drew from some Democrats as well. He ran as a populist and I myself, a solid Dem, toyed with supporting him until Henry won his run off with Vince Orza. I've heard Richardson is thinking of running again.

Henry is by no means a shoe in, but he's in a pretty strong position. There really hasn't been a lot of pissing and moaning by state repugs.

If Coburn could win by high single digits we need even a weaker gov opponent in 2006, if that's possible.

And I'm sure you're right Richardson drew a good percentage of his vote from Democrats. I remember his populism from the debates. Plus it was great he used Largent's bullshit explosion in his commercials. Henry was able to stay off center stage on that topic yet benefit at the same time.

than Largent's run for governor? I think he just thought he could show up and win because he's a Repub and he's in the HoF. I left OK in 2003. Glad to hear there's been progress made on the lottery issue.

The state attorney general, Tom Reilly, will be the most likely next gov of MA.

Romney will get a Bush appointment in '06 somewhere, and not run for re-election. That way he can get some federal experience for his run for the Repuke nomination in '08, which he will lose big time for being too moderate.

Altough the DFL just picked up 13 (!) new legislative seats, I don't read it as a mandate for the entire DFL platform - but it certainly doesn't speak well for the future of Pawlentyism. The fact is that Minnesotans prefer centrist governors (like Arne Carlson, a republican I'd bring back to office in a hearbeat). Tim Pawlenty has charted his course on the good ship Far Right, and I don't it will carry him in 2006 if we put up a good candidate.

Right now, talk around town is that Mike Hatch wants to run for Gov., and though he's not my favorite I would support him. Others to watch out for would Mike Ciresi, Judi Dutcher, or maybe Matt Entenza.

Dark horse candidates might include former St. Paul police chief Bill Finney or a Wellstone son.

"I'm a 95% improvement over Paul Wellstone." Pure scum, he's truly a terrible person. I hope to God he loses his re election.

The guy's got a Republican hand up his butt and he just moves his lips as the party throws their voice out through him. He's such a tool, and I'd be surprised if we didn't have MN Republicans getting sick of it by '08.

He's the classic Republican tool: so easily manipulated and obviously opportunistic. He used to be a Democrat, Jewish and from out East. Now he's Republican, converted to Christianity but still saying "Minnesota" with a New York accent. All-around fake. C'mon, Jessie may have spent a long time out in California, but he at least still called it "Minnesoooooootaaa"!

And Coleman was doing the campaing circut for the past few months accusing Kerry of being a flip-flopper! HA HA!!

The GOP is going to throw a shitstorm at her-they already have said that they are going to attack her "values" on choice and gays. It's going to be ugly.

There are legitimate issues to debate, like the GOP bankrupting the state before she took office. And the basic, bi-partisan corruption involving McNamara, Engler, Cox and Granholm and Metro Airport. I doubt anyone in either party wants to touch that one with a ten foot pole, depending on who the GOP runs. If they run a W. Michigan candidate, he will have no ties to any of that.

There will also be attempts to link Granholm to Kwame Kilpatrick, who has shown himself to be a pretty corrupt mayor. They did this in 2002, but Kwame's been in office for longer, now, and has had his share of scandals. His daddy worked for Ed McNamara, as did Granholm before she ran for AG in 1998.

Granholm is not that popular with the unions, especially the UAW. She also has to make sure that they can't blame her for the state's financial problems, which were mostly caused by her predecessor.

Very very sharp guy. He's an african american in his forties and he is very poular in Columbus. He's done a lot to develope downtown Columbus and upgrade the city quite a bit, inspite of a terrible economy. Even most republicans I know in Cbus think he's done a very good job too. He did a lot of campaigning for Kerry, and I think the DNC has their eye on him, thinking he'll be a big player. He isn't really known outside Cbus, but that could change. Chances are very good that he'll run, and he'd be quite good.

He'll most likely run against Blackwell.

He's beatable because our independant and democratic challengers in '02 DID beat him. We just have to do something to unite all the people who either voted for an Independant or a Democrat last time around behind a single candidate!

Hopefully, there's a lot of critical mass going into the '06 gubenatorial race because of how we ousted 13 Republican incumbents in our state House last week. Minnesota is already getting sick of "No New Taxes" and its less-uttered cousin: "Don't Do Nothing."

Thanks for posting this thread! I agree, we really need to take the momentum we built up from '04 and accelerate it for '06! And, remember, we really did GAIN this last election: 56 million Americans is nothing to sneeze at. We have a chance to really catch the Republicans sleeping here as they rest on their laurels.