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I was thinking about exit poll yesterday and I realized that I have not seen the following types of arguments so far.
Let's ask exit polling company to release their result and demand the answers 'why they are so wrong!!"
Look, the bottom line is that either exit polls or published polls are wrong.
If you know anything about exit polls, you will understand that it would take a vast coordinated efforts to change exit polls from actual results.
What enraged me most is the fact that the media and some people buy some very crappy arguments as enough reasons for 'wrong exit polls' and try to discredit much more 'credible leads' to 'wrong published polls'.
This is very serious issue, we have to find out why 'exit polls' and 'published polls' are so different.
We have to start pushing exit poll companies for answers. Exit polling is a well-established part of polling business. It is serious science and business.
Does anyone has some idea to do something about this? We can set up a non-partisan web site about 'is exit poll wrong?"
For people who still don't understand the accuracy of exit poll, I paste a post at Zogby poll.
Hertopos
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Votergate 2004; We Don't Need Paper to Prove Fraud, But We Do Need Money and Leadership, NOW.
Since last Tuesday there has been a justifiable uproar about the major differences between the exit polls in Ohio and Florida and the actual results. Democrats and Republicans, who both saw the same exit polls that showed an electoral landslide in favor of Kerry, have confirmed this. Investigative reporter Bob Parry confirmed from his sources that the Bush campaign was convinced they were going to lose. George H. W. Bush also confirmed this in an interview with The Today Show. So why have the exit polls been so wrong in the last two elections? It is clear that there must have been manipulation in the voting machines. While there's been a lot of talk of problems with not having paper trails, computer fraud is uncovered most of the time without paper trails.
As a former C.P.A and auditor, I have used statistical sampling throughout my career with great confidence. With electronic record keeping, it's easy to create a program to falsify the books. But there are ways to uncover that. Auditors have developed statistical ways to cut right through corruption in companies. You don't even need a paper trail. These statistical approaches can be used with almost 100% accuracy to uncover fraud.
With the votergate 2004 it's a numbers game just like it is with corporate accounting, even easier. All you're talking about is one number-- total votes for each candidate.
There's a huge difference between polling what WILL happen and polling something that has already happened. The reliability of polling something that has already happened is highly reliable vs. predictive polls, like Gallup or Zogby, which is very risky. The reliability can be, not plus or minus 4 percent as we see with predictive poplls, but rather a much more reliable plus or minus one half or one tenth of one percent with exit polls, because those are based on asking people who already voted. I would even say that if the exit polling were done in the key precincts of Florida and Ohio, which it was, then these results should be practically “bullet proof.”
It is important that people know how accurate random sampling of historical events can be in order for them to understand how unlikely it is that the exit polls were wrong. ...
Sheldon Drobny is CPA and Venture Capitalist and co-founder of Air America Radio.
(11/9/2004)
- By Sheldon Drobny, Op-Ed News
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