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Which SCOTUS justices are likely ro retire in the next 4 years?

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jtb33 Donating Member (490 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-15-04 02:47 PM
Original message
Which SCOTUS justices are likely ro retire in the next 4 years?
I have heard that there are up to three, but I can't find the names of those likely to retire ...and of those likely to retire, which have liberal/conservative leanings?
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Dookus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-15-04 02:50 PM
Response to Original message
1. definitely Rehnquist
and probably Stevens (he's 84 years old), O'Connor (who supposedly wants to retire and has wanted to do so for awhile) and perhaps Ginsburg, who has also battled cancer.
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lynintenn Donating Member (177 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-15-04 05:13 PM
Response to Reply #1
10. Stephens is almost 90
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Dookus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-15-04 05:15 PM
Response to Reply #10
11. He was born
in April, 1920. That makes him 84.
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OneBlueSky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-15-04 02:50 PM
Response to Original message
2. well, Rehnquist and O'Connor come to mind . . .
and I'm sure there are one or two others . . .
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Claire Beth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-15-04 02:51 PM
Response to Original message
3. normally, the ones appointed
Edited on Mon Nov-15-04 02:53 PM by Claire_beth
by a democratic president do not retire under a republican president unless there is some kind of health issue. I hope the decent ones we have will be able to hang on for at least 4 more years. O'Conner is the swing voter. Rehnquist is ill.
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Pirate Smile Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-15-04 02:52 PM
Response to Original message
4. Rehnquist, O'Connor, Stevens is really getting old (80's). I'm not
sure who else. Stevens would be bad news for us on everything and O'Connor would be bad news for Roe v. Wade.
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MrUnderhill Donating Member (650 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-15-04 03:03 PM
Response to Original message
5. Obvioulsly the chief will retire soon.
He's been "paying to work" for some time now.

I get the impression none of them wanted to retire when the sitting President had been put in office by their court. Perhaps they wanted to wait for a more "legitimate" process.

O'Connor has been talking about retiring for four years now, and will probably be gone unless she is selected as the new chief justice. Her moderating influence will be missed if her replacement is as right wing as hinted.

Stevens and Ginsburg are two of our best, but Stevens will be 88 by the time another President can be elected. Can he make it? And Ginsburg's health is at least a question. If all four are replaced by Bush, it would be a devestating blow.

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jtb33 Donating Member (490 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-15-04 03:39 PM
Response to Reply #5
6. Wow... so there's the possibility of FOUR in the next 4 years?!
If so, from the posts, it appears that one is right leaning (Rehnquist), two are left leaning (Stevens, Ginsburg) and one is moderate, but a bit to the right (O'Connor).

Correct?
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MrUnderhill Donating Member (650 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-15-04 04:26 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. well.... people do say that EVERY election.
There's always "a chance that three or even four justices will retire", but you never know.

Steven obviously doesn't WANT to retire with Bush replacing him - he probably doesn't want a Republican Senate either. And when Bush was first "elected", Stevens was 80 and would be 84 by the end of the first term. One would think THAT was too much to ask.... but the guy has held on admirably... I won't rule out his hanging around.

I'd say 1-2 is a virtual certainty. Three is a strong possibility and there's an outside chance of four.
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liberalpragmatist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-15-04 04:34 PM
Response to Original message
8. one or two definitely, maybe 3
Rehnquist, O'Conner, my guess is Stevens.

That being said, while it wouldn't surprise me, I'm not so sure that Roe v. Wade will be overturned. I fully expect Bush to appoint some far-right neo-fascist to replace Rehnquist, but he'll probably go with a moderately pro-choice Conservative to replace O'Conner and same with Stevens. The reason? Every pollster, every political scientist, every REPUBLICAN strategist admits that if Roe v. Wade were overturned, it would be a disaster for the Republican party. As a high-profile Republican said (I'm not sure who), "The party just likes to have Roe to kick around." It's purely a political thing. And my guess is that Rove knows this and won't do it.
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jtb33 Donating Member (490 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-15-04 05:03 PM
Response to Reply #8
9. Good points....
I think they will "sacrifice" overturning R v W to get judges that are more conservative in other areas.
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liberalpragmatist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-15-04 05:16 PM
Response to Reply #9
12. Yeah
So they can ruin what little social safety net we have left.
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