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This came out yesterday, but I didn't see a thread on this topic. The "Political Animal" columnist at Washington Monthly is making a pretty strong case against the election having been stolen. He's linked to a couple of sources showing that Democrats always do better in exit polls than they do in presidential votes. In 1988 exit polls showed Dukakis ahead by 0.6%, but he really lost the race nationally by 7.7%--better than an 8% spread.
In 1992, Clinton got a 7% spread from the exit polls. He exit-polled a 12.8% victory, but only won by 5.6% In 1996, Clinton got a 6% spread from the exit polls. He exit-polled a 14.7% victory, but only won by 8.5% In 2000, Al Gore got a 2% spread from the exit polls. He exit-polled a 2.3% victory, but only won by 0.5%
I haven't seen any national numbers--Democrats were mostly talking about gaming on a state-by-state basis (again failing to run as "a full service party" as Wes Clark has critiqued our side for doing). But the state polls I've seen showed Democratic-leans pretty consistant with these numbers.
Now, before some of my fellow DUers fall all over themselves denouncing Kevin Drum as a "whore" for pointing out inconvenient facts, please take this reminder that Drum is one of the best of the good guys and one of the most consistant Bush-nailers among the big players in the blogosphere. He's no sell out.
He is not to be conflated with the usual barking silliness from the New Republic where yet another act-tough hawkish liberal elitist (this one named Norm Schreib) is floating the psychological-projection-based hypothesis that "Liberal guilt to blame for the screwy exit poll data." OK, that guy is a maroon. Drum uses something TNR posers don't recognize--hard facts and dispassionate logic--to make his case.
Are there still questions left about the disparity between exit polls in machine states vs exit polls in scanner states? Sure, and those should be looked into. I can tell you from experience as an election judge myself that introducing new technology into the voting process tends to throw off the voting results from people who have lower formal education levels--and who also happen to vote disproportionately Democratic. This alone may have cost us Iowa, but probably no other state.
The facts being cited at DU and other Democratic sites I'm loyal to about possible vote fraud just are not being vetted thru enough critical filters. Cleaning up the flabby voting system in this country is an important mission for us to take on. Claiming with certainty that the BBVs and exit polls alone prove the election was stolen just makes our side look like a bunch of left wing freeper paranoids.
Let's be reality based, my friends. I promise you that's the side that always wins in the long run.
--Bucky A Brown Bag Blog
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