Two levels of trouble for Dean.

First let me say this: I thought the speech he gave last night was a very good speech. I mean here's the bottom line: he got his ass handed to him, and he was letting his supporters know that he is in for the long-haul. Nothing wrong with that. He was dead no matter what he did: if he wasn't firey enough, the press would have said that he seemed defeated. They would have noticed "a real change in his demeanor." They would have said that this was his first step in the New Hampshire primary--the not-so-angry Dean. He was just trying to pump up his supporters by letting them know that he wasn't defeated (we can argue about HOW he went about it--but not about WHAT he was doing). Even my wife, who is really not very political, though has a visceral hatred for chimpy (even more than my "rationale," principled, and well-founded hatred), got very angry this morning when she saw what the newscasts were doing with his speech. She doesn't follow the political machination at all and still saw all of the criticism as fraudulent.

O.K., now his two problems:
1) The media has buried him. He IS a joke. For this reason alone, he's done. Fair or unfair (and I think it's incredibly UNFAIR), he's written the epilogue to the "crazy/angry" narrative. The only thing he should "have known better" about is that the whore press loves it, freakin' LOVES it, when a moment fits into and encapsulates an ongoing narrative. It proves them correct and sagacious. I like Dean, but he's now the press's punching bag. They get to openly disrespect him--not question him but disrespect him. He's done.

2) I thought Dean would make it farther, though I doubted he could win the nomination (though always thought it was a possibility). In fact, I thought he had a better chance in the general than he did in the primaries. He's a states' rights guys, wants to balance the budget, and was honing in on an education message. On these three things, he was going to go at Bush and paint Bush as a bureaucrat. I thought Dean deserved, for the excitement and electricity he has brought to the campaign, to get the nod for VP. Plus, he's got CASH and the ability to raise more. But all of this has changed. His "joke" status makes him not worth the $40+ million he brings to the table. He won't be asked to run as VP, which was a VERY real possibility before.

Now, all of this being said, he may be able to turn things around. He may be able to use these so-called detriments to his advantage. But, I'm sorry to say, I doubt it. It's not the Iowa loss that makes this true; it's the fact that the media and the repubs. (God I hope the dems. don't take the cheap shots) can now disrespect him at will. The Al Gore and earth tones/invented the internet/love canal was nothing compared to what they can do here. You can see a real gleam in their eyes as they laugh and chuckle at the "absurdity" of his speech last night. The fact that Dean was on ESPN on a number of occassions isn't good.

So I have two suggestions for Dean: 1) you aren't going to be asked to be VP, and you've got $40+ million. So what to do with it? Please don't use it to trash your opponents if you know you're out of it. You can do two things: use the money to trash the media or to go after Bush. Swing wildly at chimpy. Not only that, be in communication with the other candidate(s) and ask him/them what sort of message you can put out there that will work well with their message. Coordinate the attacks. Let them run on their platform and you attack Bush.

I'll be very surprised if Dean comes back. If he wins N.H., I will be amazed. He may actually finish 3rd. 3rd.

Note to all Dean supporters: I'm not trashing Dean. I like him a lot. My wife, who can only go on her gut reaction, likes Dean a lot. The others seem too scripted for her taste. This is my simple analysis of the position he's in. The media will try to bury him. It's a hard hole to dig oneself out of. And it isn't cyclical; they want him gone so they can move to their next story. Please mark this post; if Dean wins the nomination, I want you to pull it up, show it to everyone, and I will apologize profusely to you. You can send me the apology you want me to write to my message box. I will write whatever you tell me to write.

Finally, because I loathe the media so much, and I'd love to see them eat crow, I can say this: Go Dean!!!!! Yahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.

I think a lot of non-Dean supporters might have laughed with everyone else at YEEEAAAAAHHHHHHHHH. But, step back a minute. They might be laughing at the process and the primary and all the Democrats.

Dean has been the face of the Democratic primaries for 9 months now. He's been featured in more stories and has had his mug on more magazine covers.

Now that face is looking foolish. And it's not like the media put Kerry and Edwards's faces up today instead.

The media might be trying to lift up Bush by making Democrats looked stupider.

??

But it's definitely not the first time my grammar has been bad. In fact, I've only ever seen someone correct grammar once here.

Although it appears that both might be open to question.

looking at Bush. Compare and contrast. What do voters take away from that?

Dems are idiots. Republicans act with dignity and are presidential.

Dean has been made the face of the primaries by the media, and they were able to smear all the dems today thanks to the actions of Dean.

I think that Dean sends the exact message we need to be sending. I've already seen the "damning" speech (a hoarse Dean making his typically energetic speech and losing control of his voice after a day of campaigning). I don't think this makes us seem "stupider". I think it shows the commitment and passion we bring to the process...things that have been a big part of Dean's campaign from the start.

If Rush and Hannity want to laugh, let 'em. The fact is, there's no such thing as bad press. If this generates an iota of interest, it'll pay off in the general. As for the primary, we've won a district, placed 3rd in one state, and have the entire primary season left. I'm happy with the results so far.

but you have to be questioning your assumptions about what works and what doesn't after that -- especially after hearing what people were saying about him in the cauceses.

of Dean's actions (or, at least, the impression they made on the public).

Third place in Iowa is most decidedly a reason to look at strategy and decide whether a fine-tuning of the message is in order. However, I still believe that the impassioned Dean is the real Dean. I believe that people, in general, respond to that in a positive way.

Obviously, time will tell. I'm confident in Dean's ability to express himself in a way that resonates with the voters.

Many Dean supporters seem to be in complete denial of anything that doesn't fall down on the side of their candidate being brilliant and invincible. People have been trying to point out for months that Dean, like any candidate, has weak spots that need shoring up, yet rather than recognizing and correcting these problems, the Dean campaign and its supporters attack anyone who points this out and then goes right on doing the same thing.

The other night was a perfect case in point. For the second time in a week, Dean was smacked down by voters after he and his supporters bragged and boasted about how well he'd do. In the DC primary, where Dean expected to prove his overwhelming strength in the black community, he was rejected by black voters by nearly 3-1. Were it not for strong support by upper and upper middle class whites in the city, he would probably have lost the primary altogether since he had not managed to get more than a minority of blacks to vote for him over Al Sharpton. But whenever it was pointed out that perhaps Dean needed to readjust his message and approach the the black community, many of his supporters insisted that Dean's showing in DC did not evidence any problem, that it showed he's got strong black support and that he would kick ass in Iowa as proof of his electoral strength.

And then came Iowa where, for the first time, Dean would go up against other viable candidates. And Dean got his butt kicked there. Iowa voters made it clear that he utterly failed to connect with them. They said that he was angry and unelectable. One would think that having 82% of an electorate vote against you would be a wakeup call that some kind of correction is in order. Yet Dean only made it worse in his post-caucus speech. He seemed to be saying, "Screw all of you. You think I'm angry? Well I'll show you I'm angry as hell! That'll show you!" But in doing this, he made himself look ridiculous and, possibly, torpedoed his campaign for good.

To their credit, some of his supporters have actually stepped back and said, "Whoa, dude - check yourself for a minute," but most of those that I've seen continue insisting that Dean is doing JUST great, that this is all part of a strategy, that he didn't look like a damned fool the other night, that anyone who disagrees is just a Dean hater and that he's going to show them the next time around."

I have a feeling that when Edwards or Kerry or Clark is standing on the Capitol steps taking the oath of office next January, some Dean supporters will be saying, "I don't care what anybody says. Dr. Dean ran a perfect campaign."

Please don't confuse the right-leaning pundit groups with actual humans.

No one is suggesting this is "JUST great...all part of a strategy". Dean's current situtation is both tactical and strategic. Tactially, he has to recover from the Iowa primary and strategically, he has to figure out how to transition from the pre-primary period to this higher level of scrutiny.

He has exactly two weeks (N.H. but the Feb. 3 votes).

Of course people are going to argue the best set of facts available to them, and sometimes ignore their critics. Hell, you should never admit your critic has a case. It just lends them credibility. Building their credibility is there job.

Spending all your time trying to tear down the other candidate rather than building your own is not a formula for making your guy the standard bearer for ABB. It is divisive and unproductive.

If you don't like the premise, explain.

You knew I meant "stupider than Bush" then?

.

The media built Dean up all these months so the Democrats could take a fall, but luckily Iowa wasn't interested in following the script. It just goes to show you that the voters truly decide these things, and will go against the media, the polls and the party establishment (Dean had much of the establishment behind, i.e. Gore, Harkin, the unions etc) if neccessary. What happened in Iowa was truly "democracy in action", more than any Dean meetup or Internet primary.

I'm not a Kerry or Edwards supporter but I was so glad that they did so well last night. It showed that honest campaiging pays off better than lying about one's opponents.

"1) you aren't going to be asked to be VP"

Wrong, I personally would be glad to have Howard Dean as Clark's V.P. or vice versa.

It's about the Campaign to beat Bush and Dean was the first to go for the jugular of that arrogant, elitist that is pretending to be president.

Nope, Twetty on MSNBC said tonight one thing that makes sence....

Kerry is stiff, but with a good foreign policy stance.
Edwards, is warm, comes off as likable. Gives a message of Hope.

If you could only roll those two qualities into one human being.

Well' it's my opinion Tweety that those two qualities are in one person and that is Clark. However, they all three lack fire, and that fire is Dean.

Why should the Democratic party award someone who actually was a sitting Senator and voted for the War? For God's sakes we're in another Vietnam!

Nope I think Dean would fit well with Clark on the ticket, they are both real Washington outsiders, and if it happens....watch the rats run out of Washington.

In response to concerns about his electability, Dean's campaign has always given the stock, "We'll bring new people into the system" line.

That line was proved to be false in Iowa. Dean's vaunted support from new voters did not materialize; in fact, it broke for Kerry instead of Dean. The "base" did not rally to him. There was no hard count of 50,000. The polls were not wrong because Dean's new supporters had never participated in the caucuses, or only had cell phones, or whatever.

DTH

it from him when he lost the Caucuse. He gave it to them with the speech, that's the bottom line. Plus they are using the speech to keep viable candidates off the front pages during the state of the union address...

He's fallen into their trap. Right into it.

this and they've had a taste of blood now. That Geeky Guy with the lisp, (the Clark Advisor) on MSNBC last night...

He seems to be hinting he knows something on Kerry...Taxes or Financial records....

Well Tweety almost nailed his ass to the wall last night because the guy, I guess used to work for Kerry. Tweety wanted to know if Kerry had fired him. I was a bad scene for Clark in my book. That's really dirty shit and they'll spin it to the max. My advice, tone the Guy down and keep him off T.V.

The High Road with Passion wins this one in N.H. People want to hear the message, and dirty stuff on Bush...not other Democrats.

Kerry needs to tone it down too, that swipe on Clark today....That may work up in N.H. but dirty shit can be used on his ass in South Carolina as well, and trust me people down there will be looking to believe it.

But, I wish they'd stay on message...it's better for the party this late in the game.

I havent made up my mind yet between Dean, Kerry and Edwards..I like all three of them. However, if Clark was in Iowa, very possibly Edwards would have been 1st, then Dean, as I believe a lot of kerry's votes would have gone to Clark. I think until there is actually a real primary or two, none of the top three should be written off or Clark either. lieberman doesnt stand a chance I dont believe. This is not over, has barely started. After NH, it could be a whole different game. Way too soon for any eulogies. :) Just my opinion.

He inspired the base.

He failed in a state where he spent the most money and had the most volunteers. He failed in a state that got to know him extremely well, as he'd been campaigning there heavily for the last two years. He failed in a state where turnout WAS incredibly high, and new, first-time voters were a large part of the reason for that.

Yet he still lost, and lost badly.

His failure in Iowa is actually EXTREMELY telling, more so than his failure would have been in a state to which he hadn't devoted many resources.

DTH

He is still ahead in all the polls. He still has a huge lead in super delegates and Iowas means very little.

We'll have to agree to disagree.

BTW...check his polling numbers tomorrow and the next day. And superdelegates are notoriously fickle when the person they support starts to tank.

DTH

It amuses me to see you guys pointing proudly to Dean's superdelegates as proof of his electoral strength when the superdelegates are Washington insiders.

Yes, he may have more Washington insiders on his side, but Kerry and Edwards lead him by more than five to 1 in the number of ordinary delegates - i.e., the real people that Dean claims he's appealing to.

"He's done."

"He could turn things around."

"I'll be surprised if he comes back."

"Go Dean"

I think you're right. I mean wrong.

I didn't want people to think I was bashing Dean. I'm not. I have not come out on this board in support of any candidate, but everyone's motives are always questioned here. That being said, I'll rank my above statements:

1) "He's done." This is my first reaction to his status as a media joke right now. John Stewart had a great time with him last night. It's tough to run a campaign when you're the butt of every pundit's joke (fairly or unfairly).

2) "He could turn things around." He could. Hell, he became the frontrunner (perhaps in part because of the media that will make any Phoenix-like rise impossible). I doubt he'll turn things around.

3) "I'll be surprised if he comes back." I will be. I'll be very surprised. Know why? See #1. I think he's done.

4) "Go Dean." I'm not sure why you put this on your list. It seems a bit of a non-sequitor with the rest of the quotes. And you took it out of context. "Go Dean" so the media whores can eat it.

What are you, the masked magician of DU political rhetoric? You show everyone our tricks? :-)

First, it eliminated Dean, who is a economic conservative, from contention.

Second, it will attract more young voters to the party. It gives the party a greater breadth and depth of communication. It will help our candidates communicate better in the future because dean pioneered this avenue.

may be benefitting the other Dem candidates now, but don't you think for one minute they will not be the target in the days to come?

When Kerry's campaign was grounded were you writing him off?

Dean not only has to deal with the Right, but he has to deal with the "Left" who would be Right. They are railroading him and you have jumped right on board. So let me asks you - When the media looks for the next victim in their campaign to re-elect Bush, are you going to jump on board the next "Goring"? Because logic dictates that the only candidate with a chance will be Bush, so will you post that no one has a chance against Bush since he is the only one that the media doesn't turn into a joke? Can you see the defeatism that exists in accepting, with resignation, the media's shaping of outcome?

This season has just started, don't do the other side's work for them.

Please, I'm not bashing Dean. I'm not railroading him; I'm analyzing the railroading of him and offering an opinion as to how I believe it may be insurmountable (no matter how unfair it iss) There are levels of "Goring" a candidate. Gore's thing was "lying" and "finding himself." Well, that's relatively easy to overcome, though Gore tried his hardest not to overcome it. But Gore still won the popular vote.

I just think the negative portrait of Dean is just too difficult to overcome at this point. It may be a long road to the convention, but you don't want that road going uphill. I'm afraid this is what has happened to Dean. Again, I thought his speech was pretty good. But the press didn't. He is the butt of every whore's joke. The only thing worse that having "serious" allegations hurled at you (like Gore has a hard time telling the truth) is being perceived as a joke. They don't even have to feign seriousness. They all just get to outdo one another. For right now (and he only has a week to reverse it), Dean is the butt of every joke for the whores. And trust me, they revel in this crap. The fact that they can poke fun of an M.D. who is obviously ten times smarter than they (and he knows it) gets them out of bed in the morning.

You're absolutely correct: they'll cut everyone down. That's their job. But it's a matter of HOW they do it. Kerry is aloof, boring, speculative. Fine. Edwards is only a one-termer, light-weight, kind of pretty (this is and will be their attack on him). O.K., how can he convince us otherwise? Clark says things before he thinks. He has no political experience. His co-workers just didn't trust him.

But Dean: they'll run YAHHHHHHHHHHHHG all day. Then they'll do a montage of fist-pumping, red-faced speeches. They'll portray him as an unstable joke. They'll run clips of John Stewart saying he's going across the country in Truckasaurus.

I'm not being defeatest with all of the candidates; everyone has to compete against their media narrative. But Dean now has a big hole to dig himself out of. And the clock is ticking.

Do you think that anyone who as felt the effects of bush for 4 years is really gonna be concerned about one campaign rally after the first primary? I don't think the voters are that petty! And you are being defeatist, Dean is the ONLY one who will not get painted by the rove machine with " if he's so different why did he vote for bush's bills in the senate" game over for kerry or edwards.

If there were ever a time for Dean to be pissed about the whoredom, now is the time. He can't attack now, can he? He's now cornered, I think, into measuring his words. And that's never good. Or, he can simply carry on unapologetically.

I just don't see an out. And the other candidates can beat up on him now simply by ignoring him.