Your Guess: What's going to lead to a US invasion of Iran?

What precipitating event do you think will precede a US invasion of Iran? (Not to put past BushCo the manufacture of such a precipitating event, btw.)

I just can't see this happening. We simply do not have the resources to invade Iran.

Now there might be an airstrike or something, but I just can't imagine a full-blown invasion.

Just wait and see. Of course. Which is sad. Our poor military need a break and they won't get it. In the PNAC site they're asking for more troops. :(

a plane or two of ours over their airspace. We will provoke them somehow, and then, all full of righteous indignation, bomb them into democracy.

they don't have the power to make it happen.

We have nowhere NEAR the troops or munitions or vehicles or money to invade Iran. It would be a much bigger job than invading Iraq, nor do I think the American people would support it in levels anywhere close to the Iraq invasion.

It would involve more troops than they thought were needed for Iraq, but it'd be the defense contractors' dream come true. And it could be done.

General Clark was asked about this recently, and he said it depends upon what happens after this election in Iraq, BUT, he basically said don't think they can't do it, and don't think they won't do it. The air force isn't stretched the way others are, for example.

There's a lot of talk about increasing the size of the forces lately, as well. Something devastating enough to garner public support could increase enlistments but could also lend support to a draft. Personally, that's my fear.

Sometime in the spring, our plan is to send in a bunch of stealth bombers, make some surgical strikes, and then there will be a spontaneous uprising of Democracy once the Mullahs are gone.

We will be welcomed with flowers and chocolates.

That's the official plan, anyway.

Meanwhile, all those "UFO sightings" over Iran's nuclear facilities are a dead give-away. We've gotten much better since we had U-2s being shot-at over Russia and Cuba.

Between surveillance aircraft, intentional distractions, and perhaps paratrooper commandos, the skies over Iran are going to be pretty full of "un-identified objects" for a good long time.

But what Bush REALLY wants is to trigger a global War of The Apocalypse to bring about The End Times.

The more I see, the more certain I am that this is what motivates him, and he is NOT cheering for Jesus to win.

Bush believes that he is the Antichrist.

Think about it:

How many things has he done that made you say, "Why would he DO this? He MUST know this could NEVER work!"

Well, that's because he DOES know it will never work

"He can't do that, it will be a disaster!"

Well, that's because he WANTS a disaster.

Bush thinks he is fulfilling Biblical prophesy in the service of Satan.

It's the only thing crazy enough to make sense.

GOP will need a good war to whip up that good old patriotic fervor.

I would have to go with the bay of pigs scenario.

A plan that clever cannot fail twice, ok, three times if you count Chavez.

Once attacked, Iran can completely demolish Israel with a single nuke.

And if Iran doesn't do it, I am sure they have allies that will do it on their behalf.

And you can't nuke Israel into oblivion without also killing all the Palestinians, too.

I suppose that is ONE way to finally stop the fighting so we can all just stop arguing and enjoy our oil.

Israeli officials have hinted (not said outright) they will use nuclear weapons if their existence is threatened.

....he can defend his own nazi ass.

"democracy" in Iraq is a threat to them. At least I think that is how bushhitler will spin it. "We have to defend Iraq from the evil Iranians who do not love democracy." "they are ruled by tyrants and I told you we were going after tyrants...after I told you we were looking for WMD's." bushhitlers famous flip-flop!

they'll shoot at us and that will be enough for bush*

to spread his love of democracy!! He really does not think that he needs a real reason just one that they fabricate to make an excuse to storm Iran's walls!!

Rummie has used up the Pentagon and CIA with Iraq. What he has that is still up of that kind of an effort is that bunch of commando units (maybe 10,000 fellows) and that Pentagon-internal 'intelligence' unit of 200 or so.

So...yeah, Bay of Pigs is the model. But Bush/Cheney/Rumsfeld don't really care about how things go except for overthrow of the mullahs and installation of some regime that does their bidding. There's no desire there to fight another embarrassing infantry war, or engage in an occupation. The only real motive is retaliation for the toppling of the Shah and the hostage taking business of 1979-81

Never look for a complicated scenario with the Bush people; it's stupid and blunt stuff they do and waste good people and lots of wealth on. And in a way they find the game of bullying and retribution more fulfilling than anything else about it- never confuse them with people who really care or act in the interests of civilization, or expect them to fix what they break. They leave rubble behind everywhere they go, never solutions.

Israel would have taken action immediately. It's one of many reasons I never believed Iraq had WMD. I also believe that Israel probably has better intelligence than we do and ultimately trust no one but themselves when it comes to what they perceive as their own national security interests. If such an unfortunate scenario transpires in Iran, the first choice is the most likely, imo.