October Surprise redux (was: "si vis coronam, para bellum!")

November is still a long time ahead, about two political lifetimes. But there's something nagging at the back of my head that just won't go away.

Is it the suspicious silence on progress made in the investigation of the post-911 anthrax attacks, which clearly originated from within the US? Should we expect some wilde revelation to hit the frontpages in October?

Or is it the suspicious silence on plans to concentrate on Osama bin Laden's whereabouts? Should we expect a "sudden" announcement of his capture / liquidation at around that same time?

I think we're in for a naaaaaaaaaasty autumn. We'd better be utterly vigilant here: I fear another October Surprise in the making. This junta won't stop where Reagan's team succeeded before.

Osama's capture would trigger an armed response by men vying for the leadership position in al qaeda and god knows how many other groups.

That would undo any advantage in the capture.

It was a wishful thought of Carter's that was deliberately sabotaged, with no agenda other than to withhold the "reward" of his negotiations, and to lop 'em in Reagan's inauguration speech instead ("as we speak..." GRRR!)

Similarly, news of ObL's capture, dead or alive, will provide a major adrenaline boost for the rah-rah flagwaving crowd and lots of dramatic 9/11 reruns: not a productive environment for the Democratic candidate to float an anti-war argument.

What happens abroad, in real life... You think the Bush clan really gives a @#$& ? Besides, unrest (moreso, violent outbreaks) will play even further into the known, existing plans to militarize the ME.

Palace plots, counter-coups and intrigues... What's new in imperial misdeeds, past or present.