After ANWAR by James Howard Kunstler

Here is James Howard Kunstler's take on the ANWR vote last week. Here is the website: http://www.kunstler.com


March 21, 2005

Now that President Bush has got permission to open up the Arcitic National Wildlife Refuge to oil drilling, it will be interesting to see what else he has in mind to counter America's imminent collision with the Peak Oil predicament. My guess: absolutely nothing. The period after ANWAR is settled will be the time when Bush, and indeed the entire groaning apparatus of national leadership, are revealed to be detached from reality and devoid of ideas for dealing with reality.

ANWAR contains perhaps four billion barrels of oil. Since America uses over 20 million barrels a day (one billion every fifty days), ANWAR represents about a half year's supply. It will take several years to ramp up production there, and to build the expensive pipelines needed to get the oil out. By that time, the US will have hit the wall of energy reality. Gasoline will already be expensive enough to cast doubt on the continuing project of suburbia. Since building suburban houses and all their accompanying infrastructure is the basis of our national economy, the world will have reason to conclude that the US has poor economic prospects, and therefore other nations will feel a steep disincentive to continue investing in our debt and equities. When that happens, the dollar craps out, credit evaporates, and a huge new class of economic losers materializes here in the US.

When it becomes evident that Bush & Company have absolutely no energy plan beyond ANWAR, the Republican majority will begin its nauseating Icarus-like freefall from the political heights. Their unworthy opposition, the Democrats, may well go with them, since none of its stars and their hirelings have offered a single credible idea about America's energy dilemma. The result of all this compounded lack of political cred is likely to produce disorder and, ultimately, some kind of extreme behavior -- either the rise of a seriously nasty jingoistic new party pandering to all those economic losers, and / or some desperate affray with one or more of the many nations who are viewed as somehow causing America's pain, whether that is Mexico, Venezuela, China, Saudi Arabia, Iran, North Korea, or, who knows, France.

The one thing American leadership seems completely unprepared and unwilling to do is admit that the game is over for the American Dream of suburbia. Our leaders will not take even the first baby steps toward admitting that the way we live is a problem, for instance making a serious effort to restore passenger railroad service. The nation's sense of identity is now tragically linked to a living arrangement that has no future. It's especially tragic because before we embarked on this childish dream of a drive-in utopia, we were a better people, a more realistic, honest, and brave people. We have become a craven people now worthy only of being lied to and misled.

Republicans won't ever talk about this because they are in bed with the Oil companies. With gas prices increasing everyday, people are going to have to start thinking about how their actions affect their pocketbooks. Gas prices won't be going down anytime soon because demand is too high (and is going to go up) and there isn't any excess capacity among the producers because the amount of oil is going down.

1. If we took the money we are spending in Iraq, we could have a nice start on building a sustainable energy infrastructure in the US (just think what we could have if we took a loan of 4 trillion like Bu$h wants to do for Social Security.)
2. In the process of building this sustainable energy infrastructure many high paying jobs would be created.
3. We would not have to start wars in the Middle East to secure foreign oil.

If Democrats can take this issue the way the Rethugs took gay marriage and make it their own, 2008 could be a lock for the Democrats. Renewable energy makes too much sense. We just need someone who has a strong Environmental/Energy record, who is plain spoken, and can connect with the people.

:shrug: