Paine's predicition: Chaffee will switch parties by the end of 2005.
http://www.boston.com/news/local/rhode_island/articles/2005/03/24/kennedy_chafee_senate_race_would_by_dynasty_duel/Kennedy, Chafee Senate race would by dynasty duel
By Lolita C. Baldor, Associated Press Writer | March 24, 2005
WASHINGTON --It would be the battle of the dynasties -- a second-generation slugfest that would focus the political eyes of the country on the nation's smallest state. Kennedy versus Chafee. The son of a Democratic icon versus the son of a revered former Republican senator and governor. U.S. Rep. Patrick Kennedy is reconsidering a run against Sen. Lincoln Chafee for the only Congressional seat held by a Republican in heavily Democratic Rhode Island. And the possibility has set political tongues wagging and meetings in motion, from Warwick to Washington, D.C.
"It would be a great race. The two are very evenly matched," said Brown University professor Darrell West, who penned a biography of Kennedy, 37. "Chafee is a sitting senator and people like him, but he has an "R" next to his name in a "D" state." Not long ago, Kennedy -- a six-term Democrat -- had ruled out such a contest, leaving the door open for his House colleague, Rep. James Langevin. But when Langevin opted out of the race earlier this week, Kennedy's name came up again. And now he's taking a second look.
A Kennedy-Chafee race would turn Rhode Island into a national political playground, with independent groups flooding the airwaves with ads on both sides of the contest. Last year, Republicans gleefully showcased Kennedy's father, Sen. Edward M. Kennedy, D-Mass., in ads for GOP Senate candidates -- hoping that the liberal lightening rod would energize their more conservative base. "If Kennedy runs, every group that hates the Kennedys will try to influence the Senate race," said West.
Meanwhile, the Kennedy family's long love affair with organized labor would bring in an equal amount of campaigning from unions and other liberal-leaning organizations. "You have to imagine that Ted Kennedy would solicit special interest group money from every left wing group across the country," said National Republican Senatorial Committee spokesman Brian Nick. "Ted Kennedy, Howard Dean -- they're good fund-raising fodder." Democrats are equally eager to put the power of the Kennedy family on the Senate ballot in a friendly New England state. Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Sen. Charles Schumer of New York has already talked to Patrick Kennedy.
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On the Net:
http://www.house.gov/kennedy/http://chafee.senate.gov/