The New Independent Voter = Democratic gains (fascinating read)

The distribution of party identification in the electorate is one of the most important factors influencing the outcomes of elections during any political era. From the 1930s through the 1980s, the Democratic Party enjoyed a substantial advantage over the Republican Party in voter loyalties. Since the 1980s, however, the Republican Party has made substantial gains in voter loyalty in the U.S. At present, the American electorate is almost evenly divided in its partisan loyalties: in the 2004 American National Election Study (ANES), 32 percent of American adults identified with the Democratic Party while 29 percent identified with the Republican Party. The 3 point Democratic advantage in party identification was the smallest in the 52 year history of the ANES.

The erosion of the traditional Democratic advantage in party identification over the past quarter century has contributed to Republican gains in national, state, and local elections. Despite the dramatic Republican gains in party identification, however, Democratic candidates have won a plurality of the popular vote in 3 of the past 4 presidential elections. Even in 2004, a Republican incumbent governing in a time of war won a surprisingly narrow victory over a Democratic challenger widely viewed as too liberal and too elitist by a large proportion of the electorate.

In order to explain the strong performance of Democratic presidential candidates in recent elections, one has to consider two other aspects of the recent realignment of voter loyalties in the United States: the increased loyalty of Democratic identifiers and the transformation of the independent voter.

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Why do a plurality of independent voters lean toward the Democratic Party? The answer appears to be that the social and political beliefs of independent identifiers are much closer to those of Democratic identifiers than to those of Republican identifiers. On the issue of abortion, for example, 58 percent of independents and 59 percent of Democrats in the 2004 ANES came down on the pro-choice side compared with 44 percent of Republicans. Similarly 41 percent of independents and 42 percent of Democrats supported gay marriage (no civil union option was offered in the NES survey) compared with only 17 percent of Republicans. On health insurance, 60 percent of Democrats and 53 percent of independents favored a larger government role compared with only 26 percent of Republicans, and on foreign policy, only 24 percent of Democrats and 33 percent of independents favored greater reliance on military force compared with 61 percent of Republicans.

Independents’ views of President Bush’s performance were also much more similar to those of Democrats than to those of Republicans. Only 11 percent of Democrats and 33 percent of independents approved of President Bush’s handling of the economy compared with 82 percent of Republicans and only 12 percent of Democrats and 37 percent of independents approved of Bush’s handling of the war in Iraq compared with 85 percent of Republicans.

The growing influence of the religious right is another factor that appears to be alienating many independent voters from the Republican Party. In fact, independent voters are less religious than either Democrats or Republicans: 56 percent of independent identifiers in the 2004 ANES indicated that they seldom or never attend religious services compared with 50 percent of Democratic identifiers and 42 percent of Republican identifiers.

more..

http://www.emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com/donkeyrising/archives/001162.php