How would you rate Dem chances to win back House in '06?

Given the current climate in the country--granted it is still a year and half until the midterm elections. How optimistic or pessimistic are you?

there'd be a chance, but unless there is massive reform in the auditability of voting machines, my confidence is pretty low.

There must be a truly fundamental review of the whole idea of voting machines. Unless that is accomplished, our chances are not great. It may end up in massive civil disobedience similar to the Boston Tea Party before such a review will become a reality, but so be it.

We all need to work on that when and where we can.

For starters...

http://www.blackboxvoting.org/

http://www.openvotingconsortium.org/

http://truevotemd.org/

http://www.nyvv.org/






http://www.cafepress.com/kickindemocrats

of our legislative districts. Black box isn't stopping us--it is the 'safe' legislative districts the GOP incumbents have carved out for themselves. We can't win with such a stacked deck and the time to redraw the lines is NOW.

See post 6 for links to more details.

we need to work on both!

Why not draw districts by ZIP code?



http://www.cafepress.com/kickindemocrats

Please check out the entire series on Gerrymandering called "No Voice, No Choice" at http://www.daytondailynews.com Go to the "opinion" page the the links to the articles will be on your right.

IT IS WELL WORTH THE READ and explains exactly what has happened, why is overwhelmingly favors incumbents and reducing competitive districts, and the general rules for 'drawing' the lines.

Population in a ZIP code vs. population in a Congressional district?

Are you saying that black-box voting isn't a factor at all?

I will check out your link after the smirk show is over, thanks.

fair, and continuous as possible, and economically as equal as possible. Zip codes wouldn't change the current gerrymandering because all the suburban zip codes would be bunched together for a congressional district, securing the same end: GOP victory.

The problem with current redistricting is that 20 years ago we didn't have computer models to carve out districts sorting factors such as race, socio-economic factors, and voting trends. Now we do. The Dayton Daily News explains it further, but 20 years ago, 90%+ of the voting districts were considered competitive and even incumbents RARELY won their districts by more than 55%. Today, incumbents are winning by 60% or more because the districts (the controlling GOP drawing the maps, mind you) have been redrawn using sophisticated modeling software to bust up Urban areas (which tend to vote democrat) and incorporate large portions of suburban and rural areas in to the district, thus making even urban centers difficult for democrats to win.

I don't believe that black-box voting is not a factor. It is certainly a factor. But the problem is NOT the biggest issue for us to tackle because no matter how many instances where voting fraud seems to happen, the numbers are not significant enough to overcome the tremendous 'pad' that the GOP has provided in the legislative and congressional district re-drawing.

For instance, in Ohio (where I live) there was a black box voting issue in the Columbus area. In the Dayton area (where I live), we use punch cards. Statewide, most precincts use punch cards. Ohio went to Bush by 1.5%--or 100,000 or so votes. You could fairly say Ohio is a 50/50 swing state. But our congressional races were NOT close, with the incumbent GOP congressmen winning their districts by 60% to 70% because their congressional districts are carved to pieces in their favor. Now does it make sense that statewide, Ohio goes 50/50, but in state offices (state senate and house), dems are outnumbered at 66% favoring the GOP, and our only congressional representation is Sherrod Brown, Marcy Kaptur, Stephanie Tubbs Jones, and Dennis Kucinich? All the other congresspersons are GOP. So even if the black box voting were resolved, we can't win with the districts carved as they are.

On another note:

I don't have the stomach to watch the monkey dance on TV...please feel free to repeat any notes of humor here!

:bounce:

the time to redraw the lines is census time... which would be 2010.

be done so that when the Congressional districts are redrawn at census they will be drawn fairly.

Like many of you guys, I've been saying we need to get rid of the machines. I know some progress has been made in some states.

If we can get the whole process cleaned up in time, retaking Congress should be easy as pie.

Keep making noise people.

I'd like to win back some house seats, but I'd really like to see us pick up some Senate seats. Unfortunately redistricting has created life time appointments in the congress. This has been abused on BOTH sides of the aisle.
I live in one of those democratically realigned nonsensical districts... these sort of antics may gin up a few votes short term....but long term they end up discouraging voting.

"I live in one of those democratically realigned nonsensical districts... these sort of antics may gin up a few votes short term....but long term they end up discouraging voting."

:-(

Redistricting.

There are fewer than 45 'competitive' Congressional districts in the entire country. All the non-competitive districts were won by the incumbent (or incumbent's party) by 59% or greater.

If we don't act to change how the legislative districts have been carved out to severely favor incumbents and republicans, we won't be able to win.

If all things were equal, considering the climate against the GOP right now, I believe we could regain control of the house. However, since the GOP incumbents are in 'safe' districts with their own kind in the clear majority, don't expect the GOP residents to turn on their own.

The Dayton Daily News has a wonderful article/series on their opinion page called "No Voice, No Choice" about the nationwide issue of gerrymandering legislative districts.

Http://www.daytondailynews.com

SWOON

He was a major hottie (still is!) The man has the face of an angel...



:patriot:

:evilgrin:

want to share this article to explain why. My #1 reason was originally election fraud until I read this - now it seems like we'll have a hard time getting one without the other - like the chicken & egg thing...

http://www.consortiumnews.com/2005/042805.html

The Left's Media Miscalculation
by Robert Parry
April 29, 2005


To understand how the United States got into today’s political predicament – where even fundamental principles like the separation of church and state are under attack – one has to look back at strategic choices made by the Right and the Left three decades ago.

In the mid-1970s, after the U.S. defeat in Vietnam and President Richard Nixon’s resignation over the Watergate scandal, American progressives held the upper-hand on media. Not only had the mainstream press exposed Nixon’s dirty tricks and published the Pentagon Papers secrets of the Vietnam War, but a vibrant leftist “underground” press informed and inspired a new generation of citizens.

Besides well-known anti-war magazines, such as Ramparts, and investigative outlets, like Seymour Hersh’s Dispatch News, hundreds of smaller publications had emerged across the country in the late 1960s and early 1970s. Though some quickly disappeared, their influence shocked conservatives who saw the publications as a grave political threat.

Conservatives felt out-muscled on a wide range of public-policy fronts, blaming the media not only for the twin debacles of Watergate and Vietnam but also for contributing to the Right’s defeat on issues such as civil rights and the environment...

- cont. at Consortium News

http://www.consortiumnews.com/2005/042805.html

I think that most DUer's fail to realize the fruitlessness of their efforts because we lack media attention.

The average American hears the right's bull shit daily without doing anything more than walking into a donut store that has faux news on the tv. Yet to get our point of view takes work!


Forget about voting machines and get into the media!

Current make up of the House

232 Republicans
202 Democrats
1 Independent

You are asking for a 31 vote swing for the democratic party just to have a one vote majority. We would need a 15 vote gain.

Not trying to be negative, but it ain't going to happen.

Please spare me the voter box election fraud responses. It didn't happen

232 Republicans
202 Democrats
1 Independent

by gerrymandering.

weak position. Incumbent GOP reps have carved their own districts to ensure consecutive victory. They have been in power in all three branches since 2000, and after the census they carved previously dem districts to include more conservative people and have taken seats from us by this method (see Texas and Ohio for prime examples).

Republican Gerrymandering is <i>exactly</i> the problem.

Gerrymandering: "To divide (a geographic area) into voting districts so as to give unfair advantage to one party in elections."

The 3rd Congressional District of Ohio, where I live, was held by the fabulous Dem Congressman Tony Hall (for twenty years) until 2002, when he stepped down to take an ambassador position. But the real reason he took the position in Italy was not because he didn't want to be a Congressman anymore. He took it because the 3rd CD, which was previously about 50/50 split (he always won it, but it was because he was a great congressman--he got lots of support from the other side of the aisle), was redrawn after the census by the 71% GOP legislature, the GOP Governor, the GOP Secretary of State, and the GOP Attorney General. The 3rd CD is now split 60% GOP, and 40% dem leaning. Even a well respected SOLID and fair middle of the road democrat with huge name recognition could not have won this district (i.e. Tony Hall). And the map of the 3rd CD is RIDICULOUS! It goes through several extremely rural counties (heavy republican areas) in strips and parcels before it hits the more urban area (which has also be split so that part of the city goes in to the previously and STILL very GOP 8th Congressional district). This is a prime example of Gerrymandering, and it has been done all over the country (except in Iowa, which has an independent committee that draws the boundaries, not the elected officials).

the problem. Forget the black box voting and media bias angles...it is gerrymandering that is handing us loses hand over fist!

...But Texas Democrats have a greater chance of unseating Tom Delay than they've ever had in a really long time. I've heard through the grapevine that the Republican Mayor of Sugar Land(the city which I live and Tom Delay's home/district) David Wallace might run against Delay in the Republican primary. Even now, the status of Delay among Republicans is waning. The 2004 election was the first time Delay was elected with less than a 60% majority. In a district that's nearly 80% Republican, it just goes to show that a pretty substantial number of Rublicans are unhappy with his performance. Wallace may not beat Delay, but atleast he'll do some damage. If Wallace does win the Republican primary, then Texas Congressional district 22 is up for grabs, and it will the first time in 20 years that a Democrat has a serious chance of winning the seat. With a little financial help from the DNC, a Democrat could actually win. Even if Wallace did beat the Democrat, whomever it may be, he wouldn't have the kind of political clout as Tom Delay. I'm seriously hoping that Wallace does run. This ma ybe DEMOCRATIC underground, but until the mid-terms come around, Wallace in '06!!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

And I'm not entirely sure that having a majority dependent on the Blue Dogs is really a Democratic majority.

I'll settle for winning the Senate at this point.

They bolted in the 80's to Raygun's tax plan but Raygun was far more popular than Bush is.

And I was glad, to the point of pointing it out here on DU, that most or all the seats lost during the past two elections were for the most part those of problematic Blue Dogs and outright DINOs rather than the more liberal kinds. Traficante, Mascara, Romer, Hill, Lucas, Luther, Hall, Alexander, Barcia that sort of people in the House. A silver lining to a dark cloud. These sorts of people controlled Congress in 1993/94 and couldn't get themselves to implement much of anything Clinton thought he had popular support for.

In Chris Bowers's analysis the Californian Blue Dogs are, in general, becoming better as the Party improves in a general way. A few of the rest are genuinely bound by their districts not understanding their explanations properly or their support not being solid enough yet, i.e. Dennis Moore and Jim Matheson, Stephanie Herseth and John Salazar. The Southern ones are genuinely pretty bad- I mean, what really is Allan Boyd's excuse, or David Scott's, or Harold Ford Jr.'s?- and perhaps irretrievably so.

These aren't Reaganish get-along times, either. Maybe Pelosi should make an example of one or two of the worst offenders.

right when we're just getting started.

We'll be the minority until we're the majority, so work like hell!...is a good motto.

Its going to take a while to cure all the brainwash cases I am afraid.

We don't have to convert all of them, we all need to convert one of them.
Or get them to stay home, same dif.

Just because we've got to win, what, like 12 seats in order to take back the house? And we've got to win six in order to take back the Senate. The Senate's a pretty tall order. The House might be within our reach.

to win the HOUSE, not the senate. Redistricting is something that severely affects the house incumbents, whereas redistricting does not affect the Senate. ALL of a state votes on it's Senators, but only those in gerrymandered congressional districts vote for house members. This will keep the balance of power in the house to our severe disadvantage for quite some time to come.

Therefore, it will be much easier (with GOP bad behavoir) for us to win the SENATE because an entire state votes.

won't ever stand a chance because we cannot get enough voters to overcome the Rights ability to throw elections.

During the drive time hours here in the Bakersfield, CA area all you can here on the radio, AM and FM are right wing points of view most of which are lies about the left.

If we wanted to elected Dem's in 2006 we would need to put out our points of view to counter the lies but there will be nothing heard from us in this listening area.

The right has a machine that we cannot match. I don't see us ever being a majority again in my lifetime. We have to take back the media but we are not doing it I fear. Today I hear the talk shows calling us the Godless left and I don't hear one word defending us. Next it will be in the local paper somewhere and it will be said so often before 2006 that it will be taken for granted that it is true and no one will ever call them on it.

...it truly is gerrymandering that is killing us.

I wish more democrats here would take the time to understand the issue at hand and stop blaming everything else. If we stop the gerrymandering of congressional districts, we WIN. As long as the GOP is drawing the lines for districts, we will lose.

Please refer to my previous posts to understand the issue.

Are we still using voting machines?

Excellent if the Dems can find their Constitutions adn read it. They will discover that America has supreme laws, treaties, and not a supreme leader. They will also find out the president can fired and even jailed for violating all those laws and treaties he thinks he's above. He remain above those laws until someone hits him right between the eyes with the Constitution and begins impeachment proceedings.

Poor if the Dems don't remember our Constitution. We probably won't see another democrat president for 30 years and if we do get a win. Ir will be from a democrat running as a republican. Don't laugh we've see the reverese of that here in Maryland. Rgese are troubled times adn bo democrat should be seen without a copy of the Constitution in their hand. The US Constitution is America. Make it happen!

the Republicans will have to do something outrageous that turns off their base and keeps them home, or we will first have to take back state legislatures in places where we have lost them in order to do our own gerrymandering AFTER the 2010 census.

optimism or pessimism is not part of the picture

The Democratic Party is not in very good shape, but Bush's popularity is low, and traditionally the party in power does badly during mid-term elections.

the extreme gerrymandering makes this an almost impossible task.