Why The Gloom-and-Doom About The Nukular Option?

Until today, when KittyKiller started the wheels in motion on the Nukular Option, I was under the impression from most of the bloggers (particularly Kos and Josh Marshall) that the chances of the filibuster being killed were not good. There are already three committed no's from the Republican side, Chuck Schumer said the number of Repubs who would really like to vote no was probably at least 25, and I've read several reports that opine (and I believe the argument) that Frist's open-ended schedule was done because they don't have the votes and need every second -- particularly because these guys don't hesitate to vote on other bills they have the numbers on (bankruptcy, Mediscam).

So Frist hits the button, and now several of these posters, most notably to me Marshall, are writing in very hushed, stern tones about 'whatever happens' and 'what happens next.' Almost as if they now think Frist DOES have the votes -- and this despite Schumer's staggering 25 number (and notes of at least five other Republicans close if not likely to vote "no".)

Is this simple cover-every-angle caution, typical Democratic nervousness over great and awesome power of Rove, or do they know something?

are going to vote to end the filibuster. The pressure on the senators to end the filibuster is hugely intense. We'll be extremely luck is we can find 6 principled Republicans willing to take the consequences if they vote with the Dems.

Look, Dobson and his crowd have got most of the Republicans by the neck. They believe that it's because of them that the Repbus got elected and they are holding the repub's feet to the fire. They want these extremist judges on the bench and they are willing to do ANYTHING to get them there.

Someone from MN just posted a little while ago that he called Sen Dayton's office and they had only received HIS ONE phone call in support of the filibuster whereas they'd received over 100 calls against it. Dayton's a Dem and he supports the filibuster, but what does it say that he's received 100 calls against it and only 1 in support???

Besides the seriousness of it all, this is unusual political drama and those who make a living observing and commenting on such are utterly enthralled with the drama.

it means we aren't wasting our time and our dime calling someone who is already a confirmed vote on our side.

Conservative democrats will be forced to step in with the republicans on this one, otherwise they don't have a chance in hell of being re-elected next time, especially if they're from conservative districts. Rove's machine will take care of that. This means any democratic senator from the south will have to vote for the nuclear option. God save us if it happens.

Brandon

I haven't been able to follow the hearings at work, but a quick scan now of the first page of GDP had me pretty worried, as if it was a foregone conclusion, until I found your post. I thought going in that it definitely seemed like a long long shot.

years. So they are probably wondering if any of them will go with the other side. The judges are the one thing the Democrats have managed to stand firm on.

The GOP has a way of SCREWING people who don't play ball. Two important things are coming up:

The BRAC, which could really shaft some states (ME, especially); and the 06 election cycle. The way things are nowadays,some GOP senators will have to actually CAMPAIGN to keep their jobs. To campaign, they need CASH from the RNC. And if they don't play ball, their fellows won't come to their aid if the final BRAC package screws them totally.

I think the threats for not voting the "right" way are going to be centered around these two events. We know that if a secret vote were taken, most would agree to keep the filibuster, but if they are fighting for their political lives re: BRAC or a contested race, the GOP Senators in danger will roll over and play dead on the filibuster issue, even if they secretly support it.

If Il Friste does have the support to end the filibuster than what we will have is a tyranny of the majority and it won't be pretty.

it gets a lot of responses.

This is all about whether the Democrats can block Thomas or Scalia from being CJ of the SCOTUS. The gop is going to cheat. Frist has staked his hopes on getting the GOP nomination on winning this fight. It is going to get nasty and a tremendous amount of pressure is going to be put on any GOP senator who votes against Frist.

Smirk has been in charge? WTF is the difference?

The Pukes could care less about the Court of Appeals -- it's all about the Supreme Court. We can only hope that Ginsburg and Stevens can hang on until 2007, when HOPEFULLY we will have retaken the Senate majority. Otherwise, we get a straight right-wing Court, that will last for decades. O'Connor will definitely go ahead and retire, to be replaced by someone much farther right than she has proved to be.

Bushit leaves a decades-long legacy: the most conservative Court in history.

That's why the gloom and doom.

Bake