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Anybody have a way of getting exit poll #'s?

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Mass_Liberal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-27-04 02:24 PM
Original message
Anybody have a way of getting exit poll #'s?
I'm wierded out. In Iowa, there were minute by minute #'s. Whats going on?
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WI_DEM Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-27-04 02:26 PM
Response to Original message
1. I read something about networks getting exit polls at 3pm est
but they already have an idea what is happening. If you watch the talking heads they will give some clues.
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leyton Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-27-04 02:26 PM
Response to Original message
2. I didn't think these could be released early.
In the GE, at least, I thought you couldn't release exit poll numbers because it would influence votes. Whereas in the caucuses, everyone is voting at the same time.

At least, if the media is responsible, they won't release the polls early. (Except to me.)
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Rose Siding Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-27-04 02:27 PM
Response to Original message
3. Here are some tentative results from kos


I'm getting hazy reports from the field. As of 1 p.m. EST, exit polls show Kerry in the lead, Dean in close second within the Margin of Error.
Hopefully Jerome and Tom will check in soon, but Dean's visibility operation appears to be the best of the lot making the race more competitive than suggested by polls. On the flip side, Edwards is being hurt by his lack of a ground organization. That suggests that Clark may still snag that third place after all.

Warning -- this is all uncomfirmed. I haven't verified these reports, though I'm busting my ass trying. I'll post hard numbers as soon as I get them. Either released, or leaked.

Update: MSNBC will supposedly release their early exit poll numbers at 4 p.m. I'm kind of turned off at the thought of releasing exit poll numbers before the polls close, but as an addict, I crave them NOW

Update 2: Here are the 1 p.m. exit poll numbers I've been able to get my hands on (from a media source. Caveat emptor):

LA Times:
Dean 34
Kerry 33

ABC News:

Kerry 37
Dean 31

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/1/27/185137/760
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Snivi Yllom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-27-04 02:29 PM
Response to Reply #3
5. the numbers I posted are in line with yours
interesting....... :)
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WI_DEM Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-27-04 02:29 PM
Response to Reply #3
6. For a Dean supporter that is very encouraging.
If it is true. A narrow Dean loss would be a shot in the arm, A narrow Dean win would be a miracle.
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janx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-27-04 02:32 PM
Response to Reply #6
11. Yes--but it's still early. Miles to go before all the votes are in.
(Not to discourage--things don't look bad at all!) :-)
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Snivi Yllom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-27-04 02:31 PM
Response to Reply #3
9. I guess Zogby's report of a massive Kerry swing was BS
that guy drives me nuts with his polls....
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flpoljunkie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-27-04 02:33 PM
Response to Reply #3
12. Interesting, exit polling numbers differ so much.
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Snivi Yllom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-27-04 02:29 PM
Response to Original message
4. Kerry 36, Dean 31, Edwards 12, Clark 12
granted this is from National Review, Repuke central, but here goes..

http://www.nationalreview.com/thecorner/04_01_25_corner-archive.asp#023784
SOURCES SAY IN EARLY RETURNS:
Kerry 36, Dean 31, Edwards 12, Clark 12
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WI_DEM Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-27-04 02:30 PM
Response to Reply #4
8. but what of the Joementum?
eom :)
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SpiralHawk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-27-04 02:57 PM
Response to Reply #8
15. Get your Joementum On ! Not.
This could well be the joke of 2004.

Totally Lame-o Joe-o
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Freddie Stubbs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-27-04 02:37 PM
Response to Reply #4
14. They posted early exit polling back in 2000
They they were fairly accurate.
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GR Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-27-04 02:29 PM
Response to Original message
7. Watch Reporters Language For Clues...
Supposedly they won't say it's a "tight" race if the exit polls show blowout...So if they say it is a tight race, it probably really is...

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JohnKleeb Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-27-04 02:32 PM
Response to Original message
10. Frankly I dont know
This is weird for sure. Does anyone have an illness so I can get sick and skip work, yikes I am such a nerd hehe.
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HereSince1628 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-27-04 02:34 PM
Response to Original message
13. Be patient, 120 minutes until exit data will be all over the place
I'm not sure that's a good thing, but once one source goes public the rest will follow.
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