any new exit polls?

I just got back. Anything new since the 1:00s? Thanks a lot in advance. :yourock:

UPDATE: Dean pulls within 6 points of John Kerry in mid-afternoon returns... 36 kerry, 30 dean, 12 for Edwards and Clark, sources tell DRUDGE REPORT...

wait, is that jerk I hear so much about an accurate source?

C'mon...

Let's wait for some real news--though I appreciate your effort. :hi:

I just hate it when the right wing sources chime in on our primary.

http://www.nationalreview.com/thecorner/04_01_25_corner-archive.asp

LATEST #'S
One source says the update is 36 Kerry, 30 Dean, 12 for Edwards and Clark. I'm told Edwards folks have been saying that their internal #'s show them doing better than this. For what it's worth. We should know more soon...
Posted at 05:28 PM

They promised exit polls at 4:00

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/1/27/185137/760

From a former Kennedy staffer (none / 0)

From a former Kennedy press secretary:
MSNBC:
Kerry 37
Dean 29
Edwards 15
Clark 12

The Kerry people believe these numbers will get closer, and that Kerry will win by 5. They also believe Edwards will go up a couple as well.

posted by "fladem"

Big surprise there. I don't believe reports by the campaigns of the candidates. Or Drudge, a Republican source that is false sometimes.

he says the Kerry people expect the gap to narrow to 5pts...that's not a wide margin.

and he seems very upbeat.

I got these exit numbers from a Kennedy source I trust completely.

my prediction: the margin of victory will be no more than 5 points, no matter who wins.

What do people think of the possibility of no candidate getting the necessary number of delegates. ie Kerry wins North, Edwards South, Dean some states, and comes in second in many others? Is it possible? Who benefits?

In the interest of full disclosure I currently do not plan to vote Dem, but I promise not to badmouth or make fun of anyone.... I just want to learn. (And if anyone is intersted share my thoughts :-)).

Welcome aboard Dr Grishka! :hi: I hope you stay here and learn then reconsider your position. BTW don't know the answer to your question. Peace, Sisters

That's whenI would say: "Give it to Kerry". When in doubt go with seniority. (Of course, that assumes he'd have a plurality to begin with)

Hillary wins.

Out of curiosity, who do you plan on voting for? Have you more or less decided, or are you still "in play," so to speak?

I am in play only if Bush abandons Iraq without reconstructing it. That would be the biggest blunder, and I will shift into undecideds. But like I said, I want to be a part of a civilized discussion and learn. I am even able to critique my candidate (there is lots of criticism to be had) and to share my thoughts who would be the stringest Dem candidate. :-) (And thanks for not pelting me) :-)

We're pulling out of Iraq this summer. Ironically, he's doing it in the name of political expediency, when it's just the thing that might cost him your vote.

I can't imagin the North/South/other states would have the exact number of delegates. I'm sure one region has slightly more than the others. So, say the North has 15 delegates, the East has 18, the West has 20, and the South has 12, I guess it would go to the person who won in the West.

:shrug:

Or maybe James Baker will bring a case to the SC. ;-)

But I'm sure there's a rule for this.

EDIT: Welcome to DU!!

The parties big weapon to avoid a "brokered convention."

It is thought that the so-called superdelegates would become much more influential in a situation like that, but I'm sure an arrangement would be arrived at before the convention opened to settle the issue.

All four candidates might meet in private, for example, and make a deal. So it goes.

EXIT POLLS....Ah, what the hell. Here are the New Hampshire exit poll numbers so far:

1.

Source: AP
Kerry - 36
Dean - 31
Edwards - 12
Clark - 12
Lieberman - 6

2.

Source: Not sure
Kerry - 36
Dean - 30
Edwards - 16
Clark - 10
Lieberman - 6

3.

Source: Probably ABC
Kerry- 37
Dean - 31
Edwards - 12
Clark - 12
Lieberman - 7

4.

Source: LA Times
Kerry - 33
Dean - 34
Edwards - 12
Clark - 11
Lieberman - 9

5.

Source: CBS
Kerry - 37
Dean - 30
Edwards - 12
Clark - 12
Lieberman - 4

6.

Source: 2:30pm exit numbers from who knows where, supposedly a network...
Kerry - 35.7
Dean - 30.6
Edwards - 11.9
Clark - 12.1
Lieberman - 6.9

Take these for what they're worth, although I have to say that they're remarkably close. Here's the average of all six:


Kerry - 35.7
Dean - 31.1
Edwards - 12.6
Clark - 11.5
Lieberman - 6.4

http://www.calpundit.com/archives/003138.html

god I'm on the edge of my seat. EEEEK!!!!

They had Strickland ahead by doubledigits in Colorado and Bowles defeating Dole in North Carolina, plus KKT prevailing in Maryland.

I pretty much figured Kerry and Dean would be neck and neck. Also I thought Clark would be a definite 3rd.

Does Clark drop out if he finished 4th? What about 5th (behind Lieberman) If not, does he have a must-win state?

Clark expects to be stronger in the South. A bad showing in NH hurts him, but it's not the end of the world. He's polling well in several southern states.

I think Clark will be in until at least Feb 3rd. I think Lieberman will be the next to drop out.

Losing the first round to three New Englanders is not such a bad thing for a newbie. Losing to Edwards is another story. However, that is where Clark's money comes into play.

Some pundit mentioned that Dean had raised more money since Iowa than anyone. I don't know what that figure was but I know Clark raised over $2 million before end-of-business Monday. Clark also has an extensive organization in many of the Feb 3 states, which Edwards does not.

It is hyper-unlikely that Kerry will win in SC, being a liberal Yankee and all. Dean has a better chance because he has money, lots and lots of supporters, and he's played as a sort of maverick, which the SoDems might buy into.

New Hampshire is important to establish Clark's bonafides but it is not really determinant as to how far he goes and how long he sticks it out.

My money is no withdrawals until the convention picks the final winner, not before.

I think Lieberman will drop after Feb 3rd if not before.