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NOT looking for Flames (Question): Is it now Kerry vs. Dean (Edwards 3rd?)

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matcom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-27-04 08:08 PM
Original message
NOT looking for Flames (Question): Is it now Kerry vs. Dean (Edwards 3rd?)
Edited on Tue Jan-27-04 08:09 PM by matcom
looks like NH goes (YES I KNOW ITS EARLY) Kerry, Dean with Edwards down somewhere.

EARLY on, looks like Clark misjudged (NO FLAMES, JUST REPORTING)

so, predictions here. is this a Kerry/Dean/SOMEONE race??

i will NOT bash ANYONE and would appreciate it if this does NOT turn into a flame fest.

JUST reflecting on the early returns.

NO FAVORITES HERE!!!! PROMISE!!!

Discuss
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seventhson Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-27-04 08:10 PM
Response to Original message
1. Kerry can't win in the south at all- DEAN can
Edwards is still in play. so is clark.
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Darranar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-27-04 08:11 PM
Response to Reply #1
5. I think Clark is going to do very well in the South...
I don't think Dean will, though.
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AP Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-27-04 08:15 PM
Response to Reply #1
9. If Kerry can't win, Dean certainly isn't. At least Kerry has military
background.

I predict that Dean won't beat Kerry in a single southern state.
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Nicholas_J Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-27-04 08:15 PM
Response to Reply #1
10. Right now
President
President - - 42 of 301 precincts reporting
Name Party Votes Pct Delegates
John Kerry Dem 11,810 37.9% 0
Howard Dean Dem 7,443 23.9% 0
John Edwards Dem 3,975 12.8% 0
Wesley Clark Dem 3,958 12.7% 0
Joe Lieberman Dem 3,113 10.0% 0
Dennis Kucinich Dem 562 1.8% 0
Dick Gephardt Dem 73 0.2% 0
Al Sharpton Dem 52 0.2%

http://customwire.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2004/primaries/by_state/NH_Page.html?SITE=YAHOOELN&SECTION=POLITICS#TOP
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ferg Donating Member (873 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-27-04 08:10 PM
Response to Original message
2. the next states are different
I'd think the next groups of states would favor Edwards and Clark more than Kerry and Dean.

So it's not yet time to call it a two man race yet.
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bearfartinthewoods Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-27-04 08:17 PM
Response to Reply #2
15. there is the money issue
a lot of states equals mega ad buys. wish i could peek in their piggy banks.
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Darranar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-27-04 08:11 PM
Response to Original message
3. No, I think Kerry is too far ahead...
My only question in regard to the top four placements is whether Clark will beat Edwards or whether the current order will be mantained.
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HuckleB Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-27-04 08:11 PM
Response to Original message
4. I think it's a bit early to make any such statement.
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Cheswick2.0 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-27-04 08:11 PM
Response to Original message
6. at least for tonight
who knows about next week?
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Tatiana Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-27-04 08:13 PM
Response to Original message
7. Clark is only trailing (at this early stage) by 17 votes.
Third place is a tossup. After 200 or so of the precincts are in, then maybe we can draw some conclusions.

Very impressive showing by Kerry. He's got the mojo.

Very impressive comeback by Dean. He's showed he's got some political strength and fortitude... more than folks like me gave him credit for.

This Edwards/Clark thing is a nailbiter.
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lovedems Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-27-04 08:18 PM
Response to Reply #7
17. Considering how well Edwards did in Iowa, that says alot about
Clark.

He is still viable after this. I think he will do better in the south.
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Rowdyboy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-27-04 08:14 PM
Response to Original message
8. A lot depends on how strong a win it is for Kerry
In only one week we have six more state. Edwards and Clark can both afford to carry on and face more comfortable ground in the south and west. Then on February 7th, we have contests in Washington and Michigan which involve LARGE numbers of delegates.

JMHO-I don't think tonight will have any effect other than to further marginalize Kucinich, Lieberman and Sharpton, and to make Clark's job MUCH harder. Two third place finishes in a row leave Edwards looking good.
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Democrats unite Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-27-04 08:16 PM
Response to Original message
11. Just reporting? Give me a break
Edited on Tue Jan-27-04 08:16 PM by Democrats unite
it's neck & neck for third how can you say no favorites?
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Terwilliger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-27-04 08:16 PM
Response to Original message
12. I'd say Kerry/Dean/Edwards are the top 3
Clark has some work to do
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elcondor Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-27-04 08:17 PM
Response to Original message
13. Edwards/Clark too close to call
Even if Edwards sqweaks out third place, it won't be by a large margin--you can't discount Clark yet. Edwards had a very strong showing in Iowa and yet is doing as well as in NH as someone who didn't campaign in Iowa at all. I agree that the February 3rd states will favor Edwards and Clark more.
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NashVegas Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-27-04 08:17 PM
Response to Original message
14. You Can't Write off Edwards & Clark Yet
We haven't gone below the Mason-Dixon.
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lastknowngood Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-27-04 08:18 PM
Response to Original message
16. Clark and Edwards are almost tied
don't count him out.
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blm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-27-04 08:19 PM
Response to Original message
18. Well, for those who care about pragmatism...here ya go....
Edited on Tue Jan-27-04 08:20 PM by blm
Dean's unfavorables nationally were 34% before Iowa. During today's coverage they were quoted now at 43%.

NOONE can win a nomination, let alone a general election down the road, with unfavorables that high.

It's going to be between Kerry and Edwards and maybe Clark, at this point.
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Adjoran Donating Member (650 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-27-04 08:25 PM
Response to Original message
19. Money is the key.
Dean still has plenty, and Kerry is seeing the spigots turning back on for him, too.

Both Edwards and Clark are getting close to the bottom. Edwards could invest some of his own money, but he is counting on SC for a win. I think he will come to regret the reported nearly $2 million he spent in NH. I think he was gambling on a Dean collapse and wanted to preempt any big buzz for Clark from a second place in NH.

Both men will stay in for at least another week, even without a lot of TV money, since they have some following in the sun belt states.
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