Updated 2006 Senate picks...

This has been a work in progress for me, and with Paul Hackett likely to run in Ohio, I figured I'd post my updated Senate picks for comment/criticism. I think we're real close to a senate majority -- I'm cursing Mark Warner every day for not running for Senate in Virginia, but I think there's an outside chance it can be done without him. I've split the categories into "Retiring senators," "Should be retiring senators (kind of a mean jab, I know, but it's just in there to show that this might be their last race), and straight elections. Alphabetical within those categories. Lemme know what y'all think:

RETIRING
Dayton (D - Minnesota)
Election – After beating Patty Wetterling in the primary, Amy Khobluchar takes on Republican Rep. Mark Kennedy, who is the GOP chosen one for this field.
Result – Normally a Democratic stronghold, Minnesota feels shame and degradation after allowing Norm Coleman to win. This is a win for Dems, but it’s a close one.
(STAYS DEM)

Frist (R - Tennessee)
Election -- The catkiller steps out to go for the Big Brass Ring (a.k.a. The White House), and Jesus freak Ed Bryant goes toe-to-toe with Harold Ford, Jr., a moderate (read: conservative) Democrat.
Result -- The Fords are a household name in Tennessee. And this one will be the first black man elected to the Senate from the South since Reconstruction.
(CHANGES TO DEM)

Jeffords (I - Vermont)
Election -- The Dems defer to Independent candidate Bernie Sanders. The GOP throws up a candidate and cries like a little girl.
Result -- Vermont Loves Bernie. Nuff said.
(STAYS INDEPENDENT)

Sarbanes (D - Maryland)
Election -- I see it between Dem. Rep. Ben Cardin (beating out scandal-plagued Kweisi Mfume in the primary) and Lt. Gov. Steele (who probably beat Alan "batshit insane" Keyes in the primary)
Result -- Maryland is safely Dem. Say hello to Senator Cardin.
(STAYS DEM)

Corzine (D - New Jersey)
Election -- Corzine will beat Forrester in this year's election to become governor of New Jersey, leaving his chosen successor, Rep. Frank Pallone to run against state senator Tom Kean.
Result -- Tough call, but look to Pallone to pull it off.
(STAYS DEM)


SHOULD BE RETIRING
Akaka (D - Hawaii)
Election -- Akaka (age at election: 82) vs. ?
Result -- Akaka should step down, as Hawaii is slowly becoming Republican and we should get a young incumbent in while we can. But at least Akaka is a shoe-in.
(STAYS DEM)

Byrd (D - W. Va.)
Election -- Byrd (age at election: 88) vs. Rep. Shelly Moore Capito
Result – While I generally feel that anyone who is going to hit age 90 in their next term should probably retire and start on the requisite memoir, Byrd is nevertheless a sacred cow in West Virginia.
(STAYS DEM)

Feinstein (D - California)
Election -- Feinstein (age at election: 73) vs. some GOP guy you last heard of racing against Ah-nold (McClintock, Issa, etc.).
Result – Feinstein is the HUGE favorite
(STAYS DEM)

Hatch (R - Utah)
Election -- Hatch (age at election: 72) vs. Pete Ashdown
Result -- Popular Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson has refused to go against Hatch, leaving Ashdown to be crushed. Look for Matheson to try a run after Hatch retires, but for now, Hatch wins.
(STAYS GOP)

Kennedy (D - Massachusetts)
Election -- Kennedy (age at election: 74) vs. some poor sap
Result -- Mitt Romney might run when Kennedy retires, if he doesn’t take a shot at the White House. For now, Kennedy’s untouchable.
(STAYS DEM)

Kohl (D - Wisconsin)
Election -- Kohl (age at election: 71) vs. ?
Result – Early speculation postulated that Sec. Tommy Thompson might make a run, but it doesn’t look that way. Nor have other potential candidates, such as Rep. Paul Ryan, stepped forward. Looks like Kohl will coast, simply through lack of real competition
(STAYS DEM)

Lugar (R - Indiana)
Election -- Lugar (age at election: 74) vs. ?
Result – This is the “Kohl” race of the Republican side. Like Kohl, Lugar could be vulnerable — he has sided unquestioningly with some of the president’s most unpopular decisions (John Bolton, for example). But the Democrats have yet to find a good candidate. So, Lugar’s got it made.
(STAYS GOP)


ELECTIONS
Allen (R - Virginia)
Election -- Allen vs. ?
Result – The Dems could easily take this one, if only Governor Mark Warner would throw his hat in the ring. Instead, he seems to have his eye on a losing bid for the White House. It’s a shame, because he might have been the one to give the Dems a majority in the Senate.
(STAYS GOP)

Bingaman (D - New Mexico)
Election -- Bingaman vs. Rep. Heather Wilson.
Result – Though Wilson still hasn’t committed, she’s the likely candidate at this point. It’ll be a tough battle, but Bing will pull it out.
(STAYS DEM)

Burns (R - Montana)
Election -- Burns vs. (after a long primary against state auditor John Morrison) state Senate president John Tester
Result -- The Dems took over both state houses and the governorship in the last couple of years. 73-year-old Burns is a fossil. Tester is young, with plenty of ideas. He wins.
(CHANGES TO DEM)

Cantwell (D - Washington)
Election -- Cantwell vs. Safeco CEO Mike McGavick
Result – Despite her close win in 2000, polls show Cantwell leading McGavick by double digits. Nuff said.
(STAYS DEM)

Carper (D - Delaware)
Election -- Carper vs. ?
Result – After Republican rep. Mike Castle announced he wouldn’t run, this seat was all but guaranteed for Carper.
(STAYS DEM)

Chafee (R - Rhode Island)
Election -- Chafee vs. (after a primary against Secretary of State Matt Brown) state Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse.
Result -- With a name like Whitehouse, he’s just gotta win. Chafee has drawn Republican ire for straying from the true faith, even raising the possibility of switching parties in 2004. With the GOP abandoning him, and with Rhode Island’s heavily Democratic population, the popular Whitehouse goes in for the upset.
(CHANGES TO DEM)

Clinton (D - New York)
Election -- Clinton vs. Westchester County District Attorney Jeanne Pirro
Result -- Only in their wet dreams does the GOP beat Hillary
(STAYS DEM)

Conrad (D - North Dakota)
Election -- Conrad vs. Republican governor John Hoeven
Result -- Conrad has played it safe, playing moderate as best he can. He'll get payback for that by winning re-election. Unlike Lieberman, there's very little liberal base in North Dakota to try running a lib candidate against him. And besides, even if that candidate won, it would just mean a beating from the GOP. In this case, moderation pays.
(STAYS DEM)

DeWine (R - Ohio)
Election -- DeWine vs. Paul Hackett
Result – DeWine ranks 94th out of the 100 Senators in popularity in home state. His approval is below 50%. The Ohio GOP is in disarray after the scandals of Governor Taft and the near-defeat of Rep. Schmidt by Iraq War veteran Paul Hackett, plus the crushing defeat of DeWine’s son. Hackett steps up, and DeWine gets stomped.
(CHANGES TO DEM)

Hutchinson (R - Texas)
Election -- Hutchison vs. Houston attorney Barbara Radnofsky
Result -- Dude, it's Texas.
(STAYS GOP)

Kyl (R - Arizona)
Election -- Kyl vs. former Arizona party chair Jim Pederson
Result – Despite its reputation as a swing state and Kyl’s conservative voting record, he remains popular. Unless the Dems can re-brand him as an archconservative of the neo-con, corporo-fascist variety, he’s in.
(STAYS GOP)

Lieberman (D - Connecticut)
Election -- Lieberman vs. ?
Result – Despite being extremely unpopular among the hardcore left, Lieberman remains popular in his home state – enough so that the GOP will have problems without a strong candidate. And with the implosion of the Connecticut GOP following the removal of Conn.’s governor, they don’t have one.
(STAYS DEM)

Lott (R - Mississippi)
Election -- Trent Lott vs. Erik Fleming
Result -- ha ha ha ha! Why are you even hoping? It's Lott by a mile.
(STAYS GOP)

Nelson (D - Florida)
Election -- Nelson vs. (after a primary against Charlie Crist or Tom Gallagher) Katherine "Cruella deVille" Harris
Result – Much of the state – not just in the left, but also among independents and moderates -- sees Harris as nothing but a thoughtless GOP apparatchik who fixed the 2000 election. Nelson wins.
(STAYS DEM)

Nelson (D - Nebraska)
Election -- Nelson vs. (after a primary against former state party chair David Kramer) former Attorney General Don Stenberg
Result – Stenberg is, at best, a third-string candidate. Governor Mike Johanns was named Agriculture Secretary, and former football coach and current congressman Tom Osbourne backed out – foolishly, as he probably could have won. Additionally, Nelson beat Stenberg pretty handily in 2000. He'll beat him again in 2006.
(STAYS DEM)

Santorum (R - Pennsylvania)
Election -- Santorum vs. state treasurer Bob Casey
Result -- In a moderate, mostly blue state like Pennsylvania, Santorum should've kept his religio-whacko views out of the headlines. Casey is a pro-life Democrat, very middle of the road. It’s exactly what the Dems needed – a sane man to highlight Santorum’s insanity.
(CHANGES TO DEM)

Snowe (R - Maine)
Election -- Snowe vs. state AG Rowe.
Result -- While Snowe vs. Rowe sounds funny, it ain't for us. It's the old moderate story. If she wins the primary, she's in. As for retirement rumors, don’t count on it.
(STAYS GOP)

Stabenow (D - Michigan)
Election -- Stabenow vs. (after a nasty, drawn-out primary) token black conservative Keith Butler, whom the GOP hopes will siphon off black votes.
Result – As in Nebraska, the top-tier candidates (in this case, folks like representatives Candice Miller and Joe Rogers) have ruled-out a run against Stabenow. That means that, despite an extremely tight 2000 election, she’s in much better shape this time around.
(STAYS DEM)

Talent (R - Missouri)
Election -- Talent vs. Claire McCaskill
Results – VERY tight race, but Talent will pull it off in the end. This has the potential to be the tightest race of the year, though, so it’s really anybody’s game.
(STAYS GOP)

Thomas (R - Wyoming)
Election -- Thomas vs. ?
Election -- To paraphrase my Texas thing -- Dude, it's Wyoming.
(STAYS GOP)


Final: The Dems pick up 5 seats, making the Senate 50 GOP, 49 Dems, and 1 Independent.
Which means a sure thing for the GOP. Even if Sanders switches to the Dems (unlikely at best), Vice President Cheney breaks the tie, giving the GOP the majority.
If McCaskill would win in Missouri, or if Warner would run in Virginia, we could even pull a majority.

Thanks in advance.

First, Jon Tester's got more cash so far than John Morrison -- admittedly, at this point, it means very little.

Second, while I'm not as familiar with Montana politics as I'd like to be, from what I understand, Tester's got the backing of most of the Montana Democratic Party.

he detests pukes, he was spitting mad at the last repuke that ran against him. Look for him to be the most vocal senator after elected.

If Corzine wins, he will appoint someone to fill the seat for the rest of his term - (2008) So, NJ is not in play. If Corzine oses he stays in the Senate.

which would mean his term is up in 2006. So, what's the deal?

And favored to win. They've already had at least one debate. If Corzine takes over as governor he'd have to give up his senate seat.

I noticed Nevada was not listed atop this thread. John Ensign (R) will be re-elected easily. The two Democrats who could have given him a close race will not run, Las Vegas mayor Oscar Goodman and congresswoman Shelly Berkley.

On edit: sorry, I missed the basis of your post. Correct, Corzine was elected in 2000 so his term is up in 2006, not 2008 as the other poster implied.

Feinstein is not hugely popular in CA. If anyone with any grit (I'm hoping for Barbara Lee) runs against her in the primary, she will lose primary. CA will probably still go Dem whatever happens with Feinstein, but believe me, we vote for her at this point only because she's one (small) step better than anything Republican.

Her current approval rating is 54%, which puts her in the middle of all the senators' rankings.

With Lieberman. If she doesn't get a primary from the left which is looking extremely unlikely she will win.

While I agree a move from the left in Connecticut, especially with the state's Republican Party in tatters, could be a good idea, Lieberman remains annoyingly popular in his home state. He constantly polls well above 60%. Feinstein, on the other hand, constantly polls in the mid- to low-50s. But it's California, which is so freaking huge that the name recognition of the incumbent counts for even more than it does in most states.

Blumenthal of Connecticut ran I think he could pull it off against Joe. I also think much of Feinstein's low approval ratings come from Liberals who are unhappy with her, but at the booth will vote for her anyway

Great post. You went thoroughly through every single senate race and our chances to win that seat.

A few points of mine: Why did you completely discount Cranston Mayor Laffey in RI. That poll that they did recetly was crap, I doubt they only asked Republicans about who they'd vote for in the primary. In TN if Van Hilleary or Ed Bryant get the nomination Ford could pull the upset but if Bob Corker wins, the seats his. Also about the Ford name I think its more of a liability for him now than an assett, with his uncle's charges

However, I think his uncle's arrest, while significant, doesn't detract from the larger picture of the Fords as a political dynasty in Tennessee.
I picked Ford because I think the rightwing will show up heavy in the Republican primary and pick Bryant. Cooler heads will prevail in the general election, and Ford will win. At least, that's my hope.

On the last part. If one of the two nutters wins I'd make Ford a slight favorite and I think he'll win. But if Corker wins its pretty much his seat. I think Ford will make him sweat getting between 45-47% but Corker will probably win.

Back to the Ford name, the name is only good in Memphis and right now I'd say with his uncle's arrest its more of a liability than an assett

Plus, I think NJ and MN are going to be very, very close...and I think Washington tightens up TIGHT! before the election.

Great post! Thanks.

May tighten up, but I think the lack of a quality GOP candidate plus Washington's leftward tilt will guide Cantwell to victory

The paelo cons want Bryant, the Jesus freaks want Van Hillary. Depends on who gets out the vote.

If Feinstein is unpopular as you describe, one would expect scores of Democrats lining up to challenge her. Yet not one Democrat has made any public statements even hinting about running. And the filing deadline is only about five months away.

Feinstein, in spite of her record, has a firm hold on the position. I think Lee (or anyone else) would run only if Feinstein announced her retirement, which I had hoped would be 2006 (since her Presidential hopes have come to naught). However, I will restate, if anyone with any grit runs against her in the primary, I will vote for him/her.

Diebold is a big factor. Cheney already bragged they will have a filibuster proof Senate after 2006.

If our election machines are all just tools of the rightwing, any talk about elections is meaningless anyway.

it is very valuable.

The only one that I don't see quite as you do, is this one.
Somehow, I think that Chafee will squeek by as a known quantity, although I would prefer that you be correct.

Chafee (R - Rhode Island)
Election -- Chafee vs. (after a primary against Secretary of State Matt Brown) state Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse.
Result -- With a name like Whitehouse, he’s just gotta win. Chafee has drawn Republican ire for straying from the true faith, even raising the possibility of switching parties in 2004. With the GOP abandoning him, and with Rhode Island’s heavily Democratic population, the popular Whitehouse goes in for the upset.
(CHANGES TO DEM)

Although Klobuchar may seem likely to pick up endorsement, predicting a primary victory over Wetterling is highly speculative to say the least. Patty has much higher name recognition than Amy. Also, don't count out Ford Bell. In any event, seat should stay Democratic.

And, in fact, I originally had Wetterling winning over Klobuchar. But Klobuchar now has more money, and has always had more experience in government and the edge in state party support.

Razor about Minnesota. Granted, I don't live in Minnesota so take my opinion with a grain of salt. But, looking at primary campaigns because the candidates usually don't have a lot of differences in ideology its usually decides by fundraising ability and endorsements. This is the reason why I think Whitehouse has a lock on the nomination in RI, he's raising money very well, and he's gotten many key endorsements inculding Congressmen Kennedy and Langevin. Basically he's a Jack Reed endorsment away from putting the final nail in the coffin.

Especially since she now has ads out on the net. See current DU home page! It also helps with support amongst many party activists.

Amy still should be favored for the endorsement, but the endorsing convention is not until next June, with delegates selected through caucus process starting in March. The peace folks will be a presence.

Despite Amy's famous father, Patty has higher name recognition.

Also, don't forget that Minnesotans often favor political outsiders, see. e.g., Perpich, Wellstone, Ventura.

latest polls have Talent and McCaskill in a dead heat - which is very bad for Talent this early.

I'm not ready to give it to McCaskill yet. My own experience with Missouri politics has taught me that tight races go to Republicans.
If she starts to pull ahead, I'll certainly amend this -- and it could give us a majority!
I think it really comes down to whether we win in Missouri and Tennessee, and manage to beat off Republicans in Minnesota, Maryland and New Jersey.
If we do all that, I think we take a majority.
And then, it's payback time, baby!

Something to keep in mind.

There's a lot of red here, but there's also no gay marriage amendment on the ballot this time around that acts as an incentive for neocon voters. If the Dems can put together a campaign, GOTV in the blue areas, and take advantage of Blunt's unpopularity and lack of voter turnout, I honestly think McCaskill's got a shot. :)

but there is also the poll showing McCaskill and Talent at 46-46. But like I said in an earlier post, close races in Missouri tend to swing GOP. Still, I hope McCaskill can pull it out.

the Napolitano variety.

Kyl is only popular because he campaigns as a moderate, but his true BushBot colors are beginning to be too obvious to be ignored and Bush is RAPIDLY losing his popularity here.

I'll give a razor-thin edge to Kyl at this point, but he could slip any time.

If Pederson is willing to spend a big chunk of his considerable fortune, though, he WILL win--but it will be very expensive. It all depends on how badly Pederson wants it.

I've heard that Dems had all but given up on Arizona, glad to know that this is a possibility.

is red-purple, but Coconino (Flagstaff) and Pima (Tucson) are pretty blue, generally.

Pederson has also developed business in a lot of the smaller counties--a big plus for him that Kyl will have no answer for.

I know that it's a pretty purple state on the presidential level (although Kerry conceded it pretty early). Good to know it's still a possibility.

with 27 undecided. Until Pederson closes that gap, I'm keeping this as a win for Kyl. I'll definitely be keeping my eye on it, though.

Still, aside from Maricopa County/Phoenix, the rest of the state is actually purple to blue, so anything can happen.

The numbers for that I thought it was okay, but looking deeper at it Pederson actually does relatively well. He's already leading Kyl among Independents and his lead among registered Democrats is 50-7, that number will probably be around 85-95 by the time the election rolls

the former Chattanooga mayor to get the nomination. Too close to call on that one.

It really depends on how bad it gets in Tennessee to see if Ford will be elected (and he's really not all that conservative, either - he is on one or two issues, but he's given high marks on a number of Dem issues).

John Kyle was the driving force behind President Bush appropriating 1 billion dollars for medical care for Illegal Aliens. I thought this would make him vulnerable.

...when it comes to determining the majority.

But if, including him, we get a 50/50 tie, then Republicans still control the Senate, with Dick Cheney casting the tie-breaking vote.

Who knows... it could happen.. :shrug:

ELECTIONS
Allen (R - Virginia)
Election -- Allen vs. ?
Result – The Dems could easily take this one, if only Governor Mark Warner would throw his hat in the ring. Instead, he seems to have his eye on a losing bid for the White House. It’s a shame, because he might have been the one to give the Dems a majority in the Senate.
(STAYS GOP)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/09/26/AR2005092601991.html?sub=AR

~ ~ ~
Great list you compiled Razor... except that I think Warner may do a little better than you're giving him credit for.

His "across party line" appeal is nothing to sneeze at. Aside from General Clark on the left, and perhaps McCain on the right (or at least at one time it used to be that way :eyes: ) I can't think of many others who have the capability to reach across party lines like Clark or Warner. I have a feeling Warner might just surprise us all.. http://www.radaronline.com/fresh-intelligence/2005/07/11/index.php

In any event.. if Benator runs for Senator, that will be one fun race to watch!

n/t

How many times now have we said that an actor would never make it? :rofl: :spray:

The thing about Affleck though, is that he's actually got brains! :o

I think whoever your awesome Governor supports will get a boost in '06... Dayum.. it's been years since we've had a Governor in my state with an approval rating even close to yours.. Not since Tony Knowles! :(

But wow-



Regardless of who decides to run for U.S. Senate there.. I'd love to see a Democrat win.

You may wind up with two candidates running for President out of your state! Both Allen and (Mark) Warner are thinking about it.. although Warner already has a PAC, a website and the works.. :bounce:

Virginia won't do it. The rural counties that gave Warner at least 40% wouldn't give Affleck 10%. And Affleck has too much baggage that comes with Hollywood, like drugs and sex, that won't play well in a red state. Actors (and wrestlers) have won in politics before, but there is a steep difference between Minnesota & California, and Virginia. We understand that when we vote for governor, we're voting for a successor to Thomas Jefferson and James Madison. When we vote for Senator, we're voting for a successor to James Monroe and John Tyler. Ben Affleck would not win in Virginia.

Heather Wilson is very popular here....

Heather's got a slim majority in her own district, she'd be crushed if she ran in Udall's district and she's probably win in Pearce's. In a statewide election, I think Bingaman would carry Bernalillo county, Las Cruces, most of district 3, except for San Juan County and a few others. Most of Wilson's support would come from the oil patch which, save for Doña Ana county (which is slimly Democratic) is relatively sparsely populated. Remember, Bingaman got 65% of the vote in 2000.

There is also a growing movement to defeat Congressman Roy Blunt (Governor Babyface's daddy)...

http://www.draftkreideruscongress.org

...when Pete Domenici retires from the U.S. Senate, and it becomes an open-seat race.

Expect a showdown between Heather Wilson vs. Patricia Madrid in 2008.

Hopefully, a strong Dem national ticket can give the momentum to Madrid.

And update my list accordingly

An unpopular president tends to lose in the off years for the party. If Bush keeps getting involved in scandals, his ship could be sunk. The Bush assault on Social Security may be something to play out in the retirement areas of Arizona and other such places.

Voters need to be reminded that Bush kept his assault on social security closely guarded until after the 2004 elections and Repug so and so didn't call him on the carpet for that... So vote for Democrat (name) who can tell Bush to keep his hands off of your hard earned social security earnings which you have got coming to you!

I'm just concentrating on the next election year here.

certainly in trouble but still with a fighting chance. I don't think MN or TN will be easy either. Also, the 2000 election in NE was VERY close. I see Big Ben winning but not in a laugher.

These are just predictions, and I made a prediction for each and every race, including the very tight ones like Missouri and Minnesota. I'm not discounting anything, just enjoying being a political junkie :)

Is a barometer for how well we do. If we win Arizona I think we will probably have taken back both chambers of Congress. As bad as someone like Kyl is, whenever I see those worst Republican polls unless its an AZ resident Kyl's name never gets mentioned its always people like Lott, Santorum, Hatch, and Frist. Kyl's kind of a do nothing Senator, my Senator Kohl who's also up for re-election in 06 also fits that bill, he probably hasn't done a lot to make AZ residents proud but he probably hasn't done a lot to embarass them either. Ambivalence is probably the best way to describe the way constituents feel about people like that. If we beat someone like him, it means that the country has really turned on Republicans.

There's only one announced candidate on the Dem side -Jean Hay Bright, a Kucinich Democrat.

Rowe is a possibility.

There are many rumblings on the GOP side that Olympia is a RINO and they want to run a more conservative candidate against her in the primary. There are still rumors that she's not going to run, too.

Out of this race. Snowe won't be beaten. If Collins keep her 2-term campaign promise, he'd be a great candidate then.

I heard he has run into some sort of frakas. Can't remember exactly what they were saying, but I heard it on C-Span about a month ago.

I would love to go up there a campaign for him!!

As for Florida and Nelson, Oh Well! Cruella The Witch is surely out, but Nelson ain't much better!

Is squeaky, squeaky clean. Its his family that causes some problems for him. His uncle who's a State Senator has been involved with some corrpuption stuff which could hurt him by association.

I really do respect him!! And guess what, just another in a VERY long line of BLACK Democrats who are doing the work of the rest of them!!

And No... I'm not black!

Or will be, if they haven't yet firmly announced.

Katherine Harris is toast; as to the governor's race, I could see Christ having trouble in the repub primary for a couple reasons: as far as I know he is not socially conservative; he also is not a native southerner (if he, he masks his drawl to perfection, not something that is usually hidden in FL politics).

If Crist does win, we have to counter with someone with significant statewide name recognition; he is a well known figure and I'll venture a guess that if a poll were to held based on favorability, he would get high marks.

In other words, Crist has high ID is viewed positively; Gallager might have that in northern/nort-central FL, but is far less visible in South (at least Southeast) FL.

Running against Crist would most likely be more expensive than a race against Gallager would; more money would have to be directed in the "Gold Coast" media market (Palm Beach, Broward, Miami-Dade, and the Eastern portion of Monroe counties).