Folks, it doesn't matter what Bush's approval rating is

All that matters is Bush's approval rating among members of Congress. If they still follow him like a cult leader, then we will be in trouble for the next three years, indictments or no. It would be interesting to see a confidential survey of how all the Congressmen really feel about Bush

I bet the Number one rule for GOP Reps in close districts is to NOT be seen with Bush, Cheney, Rove, Frist, or Delay.

Plus, the 'distancing' has already started from the Repubs up for reelection in 06 (Santorum has already begun the 'but I differ from the administration on blah, blah, blah' dance)

Social Security reform?

Not the survey part, the other part. The "If they still follow him like a cult leader, then we will be in trouble for the next three years, indictments or no." part.

Alot of what appears to be a cult-like following of Bush has to do with the party discipline instilled by DeLay. That might be gone soon too.

if bush's approval is in the gutter, then congresscritters won't want to be seen shaking his hand.

THAT's what matters. does being seen as supporting shrub play well for congresscritters? shrub isn't finished until congress recognizes him as a toxic photo-op.

There are all kinds of things that could happen between now and elections 2006 that will improve his and GOP ratings, including but not limited to:

Finding OBL or reporting OBL is dead
Finding or getting Zarqawi (whether or not he exists)
Convicting and/or executing Hussein
Gay marriage debate and/or amendment
Terror alerts
Border control debate (undocumented workers are new scapegoats)
New terror attack on US soil
Reports of smoother sailing in Iraq (after 100,000 dead Iraqis, 2000 US)
Abortion debate
Bogus polling and Lack of election reform (rendering any need for ratings moot)
Drop in oil prices (when will Iraq oil start to flow to US?)
Democratic passivity or scandal
Continued media pandering to GOP
Continued demonization of democrats
Continued polarization
Attack on another country
Resolution of Plame, Edmonds in way favorable to administration
Continued lying about economy, deficits, inflation, wages
Continued payoffs from multinational corps that will fuel all of the above

These guys are ruthless pros at buying time, manipulating opinion, hiding information, managing bad news.

I don't like them either, as a group, but they remain the party founded on and defined by crude and blatant selfinterest.

From their Constitutional definitions-
The House will always be plagued with corruption or puritanism.
The Senate will always be plagued with obstructionism or being pushovers.
The Presidency will always be plagued with overreaching or sloth.
The Supreme Court will always be plagued with activism or passivism.
And usually both problems at the same time, in each case.

My own interpretation of the Republican Congress at the moment is that it is worn and tired of what it is doing. Sure, it looks fairly functional on its own terms, but the energy is flagging and the arguments are getting cranky and they don't really believe in their Big Ideas individually anymore.

For another thing, it's not actually much fun being powerful and high status in American society if you can't show yourself in public much, if you can't get any positive media coverage, if people at large are all convinced that you're part of a dysfunctional enterprise that is sinking into criminality without a point. You can run GM into the ground by incompetence or be a ruthless Mafia don or run a stupid but puristic Third Party and still get respect in American society. But you can't be a corrupt Senator of a party in decline and get respect.

start kicking!