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I have read a lot on DU lately (because of the looming possibility of a Republican incumbent running in 2008) about the supposed advantages of the incumbency in U.S. Presidential elections. Lets take a look at the facts of the matter since 1908, which marks the end of the Presidency of our last progressive Republican President, Theodore Roosevelt.
A re-formulation of the supposed advantages of incumbency
The first principle is that, everything else being equal, Republicans have a natural advantage in any election, by virtue of the fact that they are the Party of privilege and wealth, so they almost always have the backing of big money and power. How can I say that when, of the 24 Presidential elections since 1908, the Republicans and the Democrats have each won 12? I say that because when an incumbent President has NOT run in these elections, the Republicans have won 7 out of 8 of them (Taft, Harding, Hoover, Eisenhower, Nixon, Bush I, and Bush II). This includes, of course, 2000, when Bush was installed as President over Gore, even though Gore won the popular vote (and the electoral vote too). In this case, it was Republican money and power (and ruthlessness) in the post-election period, plus five corrupt Republican Supreme Court judges, that were responsible for a Republican victory. The only exception to this general rule was 1960, when Kennedy won a very narrow victory over Nixon.
But it is a very different story when incumbents run in Presidential elections, because in that case, it seems, the experience of the electorate with the performance in office of the incumbent President becomes such an important factor that it overwhelms the natural Republican advantage of having the backing of big money and power. In these elections, Democratic incumbents do quite well, because the electorate has experienced the benefits of Democratic policies. In stark contrast, the generally dismal performance of Republican Presidents actually puts them at a disadvantage. Lets take a look at the data on this:
Outcomes of U.S. elections since 1908 when incumbents run for re-election
Of 8 Democratic incumbents who have run for re-election since 1908, 7 have won (Wilson, Roosevelt , Truman, Johnson, and Clinton). The only exception to this was 1980, when Jimmy Carter lost his bid for re-election to Reagan.
Republican incumbents have faired much more poorly. Of the 8 Republicans who have run for re-election since 1908, only 3 have won re-election AND completed their term in office (Coolidge, Eisenhower, and Reagan). Four were defeated for re-election (Taft, Hoover, Ford, Bush I), and one (Nixon) was re-elected but had to resign because he was caught in a scandal. Im not counting Bush II in these statistics because he has not yet completed his term (and hopefully will not), and also because the high technology involved in the 2004 election made possible secret vote counting on a scale not previously seen in our country, and therefore the actual results of the election are very much in doubt.
Explanation for the Democratic incumbent advantage versus the Republican incumbent disadvantage
First, I believe that its fair to say that in virtually every, if not every, Presidential election since 1908, the Democratic candidate has been more liberal on domestic policy than the Republican candidate (though Im not very familiar with some of the losing candidates of the early 20th Century, its hard to imagine a Democratic candidate more conservative than Taft, Harding, or Coolidge, or a Republican candidate more liberal than FDR and Wilson was very liberal on domestic policy in general for his time, though he was the only racist Democratic President we had in the 20th Century).
In any event, one of the most important figures in judging the relative friendliness of an Administration to the common people versus the wealthy and the privileged is the rate of job gain (or loss). The bulk of the population benefits greatly from a high rate of job gain, but it is more profitable to big business when the rate of job gain is low or negative, because that creates more competition in the job market, thereby giving business greater power (to pay lower wages, require longer hours, and put less money into improving the work environment, etc.) relative to labor. So, lets take a look at how our Presidents have done in this category, from 1923 to 2003:
Rate of annual job gain during U.S. Presidencies: 1923-2003, in descending order * Roosevelt (D)
..5.3% Johnson (D)
...3.8% Carter (D)
...3.1% Truman (D)
.
2.5% Clinton (D)
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2.4% Kennedy (D)
....2.3% Nixon (R)
....2.2% Reagan (R)
.2.1% Coolidge (R)
..1.1% Ford (R)
...
.1.1% Eisenhower (R).
..0.9% Bush I (R)
...0.6% Bush II (R)
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-0.7% Hoover (R)
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-9.0% * James Carville in Fighting Back
Notice a pattern?
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