My prediction for the "Final Four."- Hint: the winner is not Kerryor Dean.

First off is the battle of the New England Patricians:
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I think that John Kerry and Howard Dean are on a path to "Mutually Insured Destruction." They will both bloody each other up, fighting for the same votes. There is also a LOT of bad blood between Kerry and Dean.

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I think the most interesting race is the battle of the poor southerners.
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Watch for Wes Clark and John Edwards to duke it out on 2/3 and 2/10.

I expect Clark to win, Oklahoma, New Mexico and Arizona. With Edwards winning South Carolina.

February 10 could be the day Clark knocks Edwards out of the race by winning both, Tennessee and Virginia.

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FINAL BATTLE:

Clark vs. Kerry:

My gut tells me Clark will win it all on Super Tuesday.

I think Clark has fizzizzled. Edwards has some serious chops. I'm looking for Dean to come out swinging in those states, lose, and for Kerry and Edwards to be the final two dizzles.

19 million dollars.


Clark is in this race for the long haul

What will they do with their respective 19M (or whatever they have)? Pretty soon it will be clear that they're not viable. And Clark isn't.

he's going to win 3 or 4 states on the 3rd. And Edwards has no money - wont raise any - wont get any insider support from the beltway (that went to Kerry), Dean will drop (he's broke), and Clark looks really good in Tenn.

I'd say that makes Clark pretty damned viable.

Where does everyone get the "Dean is broke" thing? I haven't seen it.

http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2004/01/29/dean/

"According to staffers, Dean held a meeting with campaign workers in which he announced that there was no money to pay staff at the beginning of February. He said that the campaign had $3 million in the bank, but that it had also racked up $3 million in debt that needed to be paid off. A senior aide confirmed the meeting, but not the numbers in question."

Tennessee is a toss-up. Clark had a strong presence there early, but Edwards has a lot of people on the ground there now and seems to be focusing very much on Tennessee.

Also, don't count out Kerry in SC.

Something there for everyone to hate.

Oh wait! It's our anointed candidate!

Must try to understand.

Head hurting...

Let's keep working hard for our respective candidates. After the 3rd, we'll know better where we stand.

LOL...

big fan of Clark. I'm in Northern VA so its not really the South, but what can you do...

-TheBgrKng

Possibly because of all the military bases, but even in the VA Beach area, there seems to be a lot of Clark support.

I would assume that would be his strongest base of support.

Just think how well Clark would be doing if he weren't being dismissed and abused by the media?

My thoughts exactly.

We've got to be able to take a lickin' and keep on tickin'.

How is Clark doing in TN & VA? Kerry is doing very well in FL.

Of course I'm in Pinellas so what do I know?

Oh wait. Isn't that the only county in Florida that went for Gore in 2000?

Lots of Dean signs around, lots of Clark signs, not a lot of other folks making too much fuss. One of the clubs just had a guy talk who served with Clark in the military. He called the guy a real man, always concerned about the men in his command, and their families.

Made quite an impression.

If Clark doesn't win this I will lose all hope.

Kerry has a lot of national momentum now. My parents in Phoenox tell me that Kerry is not on the air yet, but he leads by 6 in the most recent AZ poll.

If your scenario plays out, however, and Clark makes it to Super Tuesday I think he would win.

;)

You gotta believe.

and left NH saying "I sucked, but I'll get better. I promise. Even though I've never done this before. Trust me."

Edwards is going from strength to strength.

Almost half of the voters who made up their mind in NH in the last three days chose Edwards.

coverage Clark got in the media during that same period.

I guess if Edwards only had a couple more days he would have won third.

But he didn't and he didn't. So we're left with a total newbie who comes in third behind two national political figures, one backed by Teddy Kennedy, the other by Al Gore, both from states bordering the state where the primary was held, while at the same time ekeing out a victory over two U.S. Senators, a Congressman and a nationally famed minister.

Yup, sure looks good for Edwards, you betcha.

touche!!

but he has been treated like a rock star; press loves him. He has not had to go through any fire.

Edwards has already limited himself...said if he doesn't win S.Carolina, he's out.

I would prefer him to stay in..he's my 2nd choice.

to control the terms of the debate.

Clark's persuasive skills are very weak -- probably because he hasn't had to use them EVER. Either he's been getting orders or giving orders all his life, and it's starting to show -- he's trying to tell the media what to say, and it isn't working, and he can't put them in the stockade when they don't listen.

...the 19 countries involved in Kosovo to forget what they wanted. It was his way or the highway.

Oh wait, thats ridiculous.

-TheBgrKng

whose hearts and minds had to be swayed?

Yes.

He worked with the heads of states of 19 countries. They all had to have policies that were acceptable to their people. They all had to have a stake in the operation.

Not to mention dealing with the US congress, the Republicans went nuts during this time and were very vocal against the war. All of this was stuff Clark dealed with.

It is amazing if you think NATO was just like, 'ok Gen Clark, go do what you have to do, let us know how it works out...'

-TheBgrKng

(ps: the only reason I argue with you is that you seem fairly rational)

translating to the campaign?

...unfair. I'm not saying either will beat each other or win for that matter, but you completely overlooked the dynamics of this race in NH.

We have a lot of viable candidates. Clark was already under full assult when eyes turned from Iowa to NH. Kerry was attacking full-bore, Lieberman was lieing full steam ahead. Dean stayed low-key, but threw a few elbows. There were some Kucinich protesters, and some very disruptful LaRouche fans. Now I could go over the insane attacks from right-wing pundits

(as a side note, why do we allow right-wing guys to comment on tv about democratic races? and vice versa... are we whores? how can we think they don't have an agenda...Even better yet why do we give any creedence to what they have to say?? its mind-boggeling)

Often attack ads hurt both the attackee and the attacker, but since Clark was getting it from all sides people couldnt attribute them to any one candidate. But it sure did look like Edwards was staying out of it.

And thats fine.

But the real point is Edwards has never campaigned against any of the other candidates. They have all allowed him to draft them. Now if he becomes more of a threat we will see how he handles scrutany, of which there has been next to none. Maybe he will do well, maybe not. But

the more they know, the more they like you?

The more time Clark spent in NH the less they liked him. The opposite was true for Edwards.

I don't know if Edwards is going to have the time or the money to introduce himself to enough people. However, I'm pretty confident that, if he did, he'd beat all of them.

...liked when you are the only person talking about you. Hey guys, I am great. People were constantly attacking Clark, with a mixture of some facts, a lot of innuendo, and even more out and out lies. Now its Clarks problem he couldn't beat that in NH. I would guess it was the strategy to try and knock him out before the race gets narrowed down, cause the longer he lasts, the better I think he will do.

You keep ignorning that as of yet, Edwards has not competed with a single candidate. He will in SC, and we will see how that goes. SC should be a shoe-in for him, but we will see. Beyond that, im not sure.

-TheBgrKng

it was funny... because 3 weeks before he and kerry were nearly tied... and he ended up losing to kerry by more than 20 points... and 3 weeks before he was pretty much tied with mr joementum and he what, picked up 3 points? pretty selective i'd say...

Edwards is a nice guy - but he's just not presidential material. I like what he says, he's a good man, but he doesnt have the leadership characteristics for the job. He's just not ready - and the exit polls dramatically show that. Thats why Clark was the #2 pick amongst the Demographics that gave Kerry NH.

Of course, Kerry in the south and West isnt the same horse as he is in New England. We'll see how he holds up on the 3rd.

When Dean's people abandoned him, they went to the guy from the other neighboring state. If Dean hadn't cracked up, Edwards would have been much tighter with Kerry in NH and IA.

Joe? We're going to hold the religious right coming out to vote big time for Joe against Edwards?

We'll see how Joe and Kerry do in the south east. Nobody was looking at the Kerry vs Edwards race to get info about which one of those two would win SC. Everyone was looking at Edwards v Clark in NH to get a sense of how things would go between them. Closing 20 pts in a week is going to hurt Clark in SC, and we'll see what happens in some of those other states, like TN and Va.

he'd be in better shape... but since he didnt it makes the case a lot harder. 3rd was the pipe dream for the Clark campaign going into NH in the beginning - everyone expected it to be Kerry's last stand. So we defined who the New England candidate is going to be - ok. But Clark has plenty of money and can play in all 7 states. I dont expect to see Edwards peek out of SC much.

Edwards needed the strong showing in Iowa to be followed by Kerry dropping the ball in NH, and Edwards beating Clark out for 3rd.

That was his magic formula - and it didnt happen. Now he doesnt have a lot going forward. If Kerry cleans up on Feb 3, hell - i expect Clinton to endorse him. If Kerry blows it and Clark emerges, then Clark is the story. I dont see how Edwards can take SC and knock people off in the other 6 states when he doesnt have the money or the staff to compete in the states.

Notwithstanding right wing intriguers, I saw a poll which said that something like a third of Liebermans supporters six months ago thought that Edwards was going to win nomination and race. No other candidates' supporters felt that way about Edwards (and at that time, even Edwards's supporters thought it was more likely that Dean would win nomination than Edwards).

So, I really think Edwards would have gotten AT LEAST another 3% but for Joe.

Closing the gap 20 pts on Clark was a big enough victory. Dean and Clark down. Edwards and Kerry up. Kerry's from next door. Edwards is still alive, and moreso that Clark in some ways.

And you do know that Clinton will not endorse anyone but the nominee.

As for money and staff, I think Dean and Clark supporters are going to have to do a gut check in the next week and decide whether they think it's time for new ideas, and someon who isn't an insider, and someone who isn't DLC, or if they really think that Kerry is going to change things (much less beat Bush).

had most of lieberman's support being independent - and independents going for Clark.

I wish Lieberman hadnt been there - because then both Edwards and Clark would have finished at 15+

The rumors have always been out there that Clinton would act to unify the party... this thing is over if someone isnt the #2 after Feb 3, and the only person able to do that is Clark.

Clark has a LOT of cash on hand, and from the numbers i'm hearing in AZ, NM, and OK, he's doing just fine. I think people are going to have to ask themselves whether they want to support someone who was against the war, has strong leadership qualities people feel are required to be president.

Look at this MSNBC poll
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4050095

In order to defeat Bush, how important is it that the Democratic candidate has foreign policy and national defense experience?

RESPONSES WEB NBC/WSJ

Very important 44% 56%
Somewhat important 40% 36%
Not too important 11% 5%
Not at all important 5% 2%

and tell me - where does John Edwards stack up in that mix... he doesnt have the experience to be commander in chief - not right now when people feel that they need someone with the sort of qualities that make Clark such a viable alternative.

According to the polls yesterday, only seven percent of voters (if memory serves) ranked experience number one in importance. You know who else they thought was as inexperienced as Edwards? Dean. The guy who was in the lead all summer and fall.

You know what they care abou thte most? Conviction, character, and electability. Three things Edwards has.

And once again, Edwards: upswing. Clark: going down.

Clark left NH admitting he sucked and promising that he learned his lesson. That's not the message he needed to take to the south to win.

Edwards left NH looking pretty good.

Did you see Leno tonight?

is that the times are different... and right now, with everything that's going on in the world, experience counts. if we run someone without the gravitas to be president, we'll be in trouble.

again, in the factors that people used to choose Kerry over Dean, Clark was a #2 amongst them. Not only that, but of the 4, Edwards does the worst in a head to head against W.

Clakr's numbers in NH were expected to come down - he'd been in the state by himself. He did great - is doing great in a LOT of states, and has a LOT of money to keep doing great.

Again, the circumstances for an Edwards run didnt happen. You needed Kerry and Dean to split the first 2, and to beat Clark to be the alternative to Dean.

was Clark even in the race 6 months ago??

but they're not stupid. I still have the poll around here somewhere. No other candidate was viewed the like winner to degree Lieb's supporters liked Edwards. Furthermore Edwards does well with moderates too.

Lieberman almost definitely denied Edwards delegates in NH, and maybe 4 or 5 points. I think people realize this. I think people also realize that Clark was going down and Edwards was going up.

doesn't mean voters will buy it. ;) Clark can back it up. Besides, anyone really think Bush is a particularly good debater? Clark WILL mop the floor with him, whether it comes out all nice and sugar-coated or not. :)

http://www.wewantwes.com/wesismore.htm

http://www.wewantwes.com/respect.htm

the ideas he has. Nobody's going to take his word for it. He's got to show it.

The best Presidents have the skills Edwards has: reduce complicated ideas to simple statements; the power of persuasiong; the ability to listen.

Compare Clark's son on CSPAN the other day to his father. There is a huge difference. Clark's son knows how to express himself and how to persuade. His father isn't having an easy time doing this.

the following day. DIAL 1-900-to be announced ...

and good for the country.

I would have already made a fortune!

Clark/Edwards 2004

I'm expecting Kucinich to come out of the convention the winner.

Now I shall tune out what I don't like. :)

Well, maybe not TTU, but I like Bobby Knight.

...FINAL BATTLE:

Clark vs. Kerry:


The Democrats win either way.

Both these guys are so wealthy they could practically fund their own campaigns. Who are you kidding?

John Edwards was wearing a jacket last night that cost more than most DUers make in a month.

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