2008: Mark Warner v. George Allen - Who Would Win Virginia?

Comments from people with familiarity with Virginia politics would be appreciated.

If in 2008, the Democratic nominee is Mark Warner and the Republican nominee is Sen. George Allen - both from Virginia - who would win the state? It would in that case probably be a tossup. Narrow win for Allen perhaps from residual Redness? Or perhaps a narrow win for Warner if Bush is very unpopular, Kaine IS popular, and the state remembers Warner as the governor who put the state back on track?

I think that at the Presidential level VA is still not ready to turn. Bush won the state by 9 points. Although I could be wrong, considering the increasing power of NOVA .

Against Allen, it would be very close and really isn't worth speculating over since it would be so close.

and the Presidential election would likely be determined by VA.

Its impossible to say this far out.

It'll be interesting to see how big Allen's margin of victory is in 2006.

Allen has too much racial baggage going back a long time. Some of it is well documented - noose in law office comes to mind. Some not as well known - yet. There's a reporter in Virginia who is working on an Allen bio, and he's of the opinion that Allen's racist past would be too much of a liability - even for the GOP.

I hope an Allen implosion doesn't result in a McCain candidacy, however. That could be pretty disastrous for us. Maybe they'd go for Mitt Romney! Oh, that would be great! Or Frist.

I also think we could beat Giuliani. I don't think we could beat McCain.

According to GOTV

He spraypainted anti-white graffiti on the school walls, trying to make it look like the work of blacks from a rival school. Just trying to stir the racial pot. He was caught and had to apologize. He was well-known for his anti-black views. Had Confederate flag stickers all over his car - this in Southern California. I think members of the class have already started talking to the press.

I've heard bits of that but not specifics like you detail. Save it for the proper time. I like that it's in Southern California so the witnesses will be close to big media. I guess that was when his dad coached the Rams.

He was varsity QB of the Palos Verdes HS football team and dated a cheerleader/prom queen. Had everything going for him, but couldn't resist being an asshole.

is when I'd like to see that matchup.

this would prove Warner can easily carry Virginia against any Republican in 2008, and beating Allen would also transform Senator Warner into a top tier primary candidate.

years kicking his ass

:shrug:

then they both run in 2008 for POTUS.... and warner beats him again.... kinda makes him warner's bitch....

The state is still 4-6 points red right now compared to the nation as a whole although slowly moving our way. I've been reading the Virginia political blogs carefully for hints and many Virginia Republicans who voted for Kaine have been posting they still are conservative and eager to vote for a Reagan-type Republican but Kilgore was a disgrace. They hated the Hitler ad and also Kilgore's performance as attorney general in regard to civil liberties.

Here are two paragraphs from one representative post in this regard:

"A facet about Kilgore that got around Republican circles was that he is anti-civil liberties. He would support any form of increased police powers that his handlers told him to promote. He has repeatedly taken positions that weakened the fathers in the traditional patriarchal family; a move that cut the heart out of his evangelical base. He also supports increased use of video and other forms of domestic spying on citizens.

The message from this election is that Republicans are generally loyal, but we reject that Bush brand of new world order, big brother type of government. If Republican candidates stuck with Reagan-style Republicanism (less government, more freedom) then Virginia Republicans would regularly beat the Democrats like a drum..."

Warner is exceptionally popular in Virginia. That has been confirmed wherever I sample. Many people have been quoted they were basically voting for Kaine as an extension of Warner's term, which reminded me of Bush 41 being elected in '88. But when you look at Warner's numbers in 2001 and Kaine's last night, while impressive margins they barely broke 50% against weak candidates. That is foreboding if you stick a former Virginia governor and current senator in the opposition slot against Warner. Here is the Virginia presidential partisanship chart, compared to the national average:

Virginia:
'88: Bush (59.74 - 39.23) = + 12.79% Republican
'92: Bush (44.97 - 40.59) = + 9.94% Republican
'96: Dole (47.10 - 45.15) = + 10.48% Republican
'00: Bush (52.47 - 44.44) = + 8.54% Republican
'04: Bush (53.68 - 45.48) = + 5.74% Republican

There are a whole lot of bubbas here in virginia.
There was a lot of Repug crossover for Tim Kaine.
Those repugs would vote for allen in a presidential race.
And it would be WW III here in virginia.
But I would take on the fight any day to put Warner and Wes Clark in the Whitehouse.

Warner 46% - Allen 41%...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2005/Virginia%20President%202008.htm

I say Warner would carry VA. In January he will leave VA as the most popular departing Governor in Mason-Dixon Polling History. 74% APPROVAL

Warner is very popular across the board. Allen is popular with his base, but doesn't have the cross over appeal. Of course, he doesn't need as much of this as Virginia is still a red state. But Warner would win it for us.

and doesn't command the respect that Warner does. Warner also has been able to work both sides of the aisle. Something Allen was NEVER interested in doing.

He seems like such a smuck. What do they see in him. I wish I knew.