Look What Chuck Todd Says About VIRGINIA in 2008!!

http://nationaljournal.com/members/buzz/2005/trail/110905.htm

VIRGINIA

As we've written in the past, every intangible favored Kaine in this race except one -- the state's demographics. But maybe even that wasn't so bad. The growth of Northern Virginia is clearly turning into a huge asset for Democrats. If a conventional Democrat like Kaine -- who ran a much more traditional blue state campaign than Warner did in 2001 -- can win by 6 points, then it's safe to say this is no longer a red state. Virginia is now a purple state, and assuming a moderate-to-conservative Democrat is the presidential nominee in 2008 (and a certain Republican senator is not on the GOP ticket), Virginia's going to be squarely in play.

<snip>

Speaking of Warner, we can't finish examining the meaning of yesterday without touching on his future. Clearly, his popularity was a huge boost to Kaine. If you ever wondered what Al Gore's 2000 campaign would have been like if Bill Clinton were as personally popular in the country as Warner was in Virginia, see Tim Kaine 2005.

Whatever Warner's image was among Democratic insiders, Kaine's victory only enhances it for him. We're very impressed, by the way, with the impeccable timing the Warner folks showed in having the invitation for their first New Hampshire visit drop in New Hampshire mailboxes... yesterday. Shows us just how cocky, er, confident they were that things were going to look good for Kaine.

As for the state's other presidential candidate, George Allen, he never was as attached to Kilgore's hip as Warner was to Kaine's. Sure, Allen campaigned hard for Kilgore, but the race was never the referendum on Allen that it was for Warner. So while it probably doesn't help Allen that Warner's national stature is only growing, it doesn't do any long-term harm for his own presidential hopes either.

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On a separate note, is that National Journal article on subscribers-only? Because I have NO IDEA how I'm accessing it. I do NOT have a National Journal subscription, nor have I ever been billed for one.

Virginia is now a swing state!

in '08-he's my guy right now-and has been for a few months now.This guy can win.Senators can't-but govenors can
for some strange reason.

In presidential elections, anyway. Including 2004. Now, it may really be true.

That means that it is more competitive than people give it credit for.

and Edwards. They had understandably chosen to focus on the Midwest, but I am certain VA would have been much closer if they had come here more often and the Diebold factor were neutralized.

Unfortunately, the particular thread I posted it in is down now, but I will summarize:

Previously, the rural areas of the state combined with some suburban counties had been sufficient enough for Republicans to offset Democratic strength in the rest of the state. Warner actually won his race for governor by winning rural voters in roughly equal numbers to his opponent. However, Kaine, while getting beaten fairly decisively among rural voters, managed to flip three key Republican suburban counties, a key Republican city(Virginia Beach), and expand his margins so much in the Democratic urban counties that he produced an even bigger win than Warner did in 2001 in terms of margin over the Republican.

In particular Kaine won Loudon and Prince William counties in the north that Warner didn't win, and won Henrico county in around Richmond by a much bigger margin than did Warner. In addition, his margin in Fairfax county was more than twice what Warner achieved in 2001 and produced a 60,000 vote margin for him just in one county. Similarly, Kaine won by some of the largest margins any Democrat has seen in the rest of the key urban centers such as Arlington, Richmond, and Norfolk. These results, if they can be replicated in the future show that the urban and suburban areas of Virginia are trending heavily towards the Democrats with Kaine's unexpectedly large margins and they will be sufficient enough to change VA from a marginal red state to a toss-up state.

Bear in mind, while Bush's margin nationwide increased from -.5% in 2000 to over 2.5% in 2004, his margin in VA was constant at a little over 8%. This means that VA has been trending Democratic. This is particularly true as Fairfax county voted for a Democrat in 2004 for the first time since 1964 on a presidential level. The trends are clear. VA is becoming a swing state and with the rapid growth counties such as Loudon, Henrico, and Prince William turning blue, the transformation may happen much faster than people think.

Virginia is actually a trend state. It is a leader, not unlike California, but not of a power equal to California's.

Virginia was the first of the 'Solid South' to go Republican back in the 60s. It may well be the first of the new 'Solid South' to go back the other way.

We'll get a preview next year and we'll know for sure in 08.

He was on Tweety's show the other night and said:

"Im thinking more and more that it's going to take a tough Republican to get us out of Iraq." He then said, "Someone like Hagel." Then Tweety added, "Or McCain or Guilianni!" Chuck Todd answered, "Exactly!"

They were previously talking about the wimpishness of the Dems who are now saying "We were fooled by Bush, so we voted for the war." Todd was coming off as very Republican.

Having said that, his assessment here seems fair enough.