Posted this over at Political Cortex (and dkos) and was interested in what the DU had to say:
We've all heard the maxim that "those who cannot remember the past are doomed to repeat it." Personally, I prefer William Faulkner's observation that "the past is not dead. In fact, it's not even past."
In 2004, Democrats were unable to successfully defeat a president who, by all measures in politics, should have lost. Where we should have won by a landslide, we found ourselves the morning of Nov. 3rd dazed, confused, and heartbroken.
It's taken quite a while for me to trust the Democratic Party again. I've seen much improvement over the past year or so. But I feel like the Democrats still don't "get it," and that failure to appreciate both the skill of our adversary and our own weakness will result in another stinging defeat in 2006/2008.
Let's talk about polls. The media lauds Bush's 40-something percent approval rate as a sign that the President's campaign-style politics of late have worked:
Shifting into campaign mode to reverse his slide in public opinion polls, Bush has boosted his support among key constituency groups -- particularly in the Northeast and West -- on his handling of Iraq and the economy, an AP-Ipsos poll found.
CBS goes on to cite the results of its most recent poll. 40% approval of his job performance. 68% think bush has no plan. 35% approve of Bush's handling of Iraq. Americans are split over whether invading Iraq was the "right thing", 48% to 48%.
I'll use the CBS polls just for consistency, but the argument holds true for any set of polls you choose. Let's flash back to the summer of 2004 (May 2004, CBS poll).
Bush was facing low 41% approval rates. (sound familiar?) 61% diapproved of the way Bush was handling Iraq. Back then, the issue was whether Bush had a plan for a peaceful handover. 60% of Americans said Bush had no plan. Yet Americans were evenly divided over whether invading Iraq was the "right thing to do", 49% to 48%.
65% thought the nation was heading in the wrong direction.
Things looked pretty shitty for Bush in the summer of 2004. But what did he do? Why, he embarked on a series of speeches on Iraq (the White House said the President would spell out a clear strategy for a "successful" outcome of the US occupation). And his approval ratings increased over the next couple months, and we all know what happened on Nov. 2, 2004. The Swiftboat attacks labelling John Kerry a "coward" and a "traitor" also helped galvanize the GOP enough for election day.
Today, we must recognize we are experiencing a parallel set of facts and circumstances. Failure to acknowledge this will result in a parallel result; namely, a GOP comeback, and getting our asses handed to us in the next election. Swiftboats have been replaced by white flags of surrender. Again, Bush has embarked on a "series of speeches on Iraq" which get heavy media coverage but offer little substance. And what do we get from the Democrats? Inside the party, a clashing of egos and interests. And outside the party, a message of "America Can Do Better."
It's been over a month since the Democrats adopted this test slogan. But if this is the attitude we take, the tone we take over the next year or so, then it'll be Nov. 2nd all over again. As pictured above, the sense of "America can do better" was the heart of Kerry's campaign. Sure, Kerry did a fine job of attacking Bush. But when it came to how America could do better, Kerry failed to connect with voters.
And now, I see my party embracing the same tepid slogan, the same nebulous battle cry, and the same attitude that the GOP will fall upon its own sword. Have we`learned absolutely nothing from five years of Bush reign, and decades more of GOP powertrips? It is not enough to hope that the truth will be exposed. It is not enough to idly wait for karma to make her stop at Capitol Hill. And it certainly isn't enough to promise to America that it can do better.
Americans don't want to be told they can do better. When the average voter comes home from work with exhausted body and tired heart, she doesn't want to hear that Democrats think "America can do better." The attitude that "American can do better" is too full of possibility, waiver, and condition. What America needs to hear is that DEMOCRATS can do better. No, that Democrats WILL do better. In a country where some 70% think we're on the wrong track, Americans seek leadership, not responsibility. They want a leader who will swoop in with clarity, conviction, and conscience and who will get them out of this gray-toned existence. They want to be led, not pushed.
I am afraid that we have learned nothing from the 2004 campaign. And as painful as it may be to reexamine the summer of 2004, we must. Because I already see us embarking on the same missteps that cost us the Presidency. The poll numbers are nearly the same, the circumstances are similar. The difference today is that we have the American people on our side. Let us, as a party, change our course and divine for ourselves a different result than in 2004: victory.
crossposted at the POLITICAL CORTEX and at akou