Good Holiday For Democrats (And Great News For Schweitzer Fans)

We don’t know how kind Santa Claus was to Montana Democrats this Christmas Day but, as the latest Lee Poll results show, President Bush and Republicans in Congress have been more than generous. And theirs is a gift that just keeps on giving. Congressional scandals, a president who began the year stumping for unpopular Social Security changes and ended it defending torture, warrantless eavesdropping on thousands of Americans, the never ending war in Iraq … it’s little wonder middle-of-the-road voters are turning away.

The new poll, which found 49 percent of Montanans think America is on the wrong track as opposed to just 35 who think it’s on the right track, details the improved Democratic fortunes. Fifteen months ago, prior to the 2004 general election, a Lee Poll asked if voters were more likely to choose a Republican or a Democrat for their state representative. Forty-seven percent picked Republican, 38 percent chose Democrat, and 15 percent were undecided. The current poll’s numbers are 40 percent Republican, 39 percent Democrat, and 21 percent undecided.

Note that the Democratic results hardly changed. But a large number of people who planned to vote Republican 15 months ago have now become undecided. The Democrats weren’t winning converts, but the Republicans were rapidly losing strength. Montana may still be a Republican state, but moderate voters aren’t so sure anymore. President Bush’s falling numbers have to be a factor. Fifteen months ago 49 percent of Montanans approved of his handling of Iraq and 41 percent disapproved. The current numbers are 45 percent and 48 percent. On the economy last year, 51 percent approved and 40 percent disapproved. In the latest poll, those approving and disapproving tied at 47 percent.

Gov. Brian Schweitzer’s popularity — he has a 64 percent approval rating — is impressive, and the fact that 67 percent of Montanans feel the state is on the right track compared to only 19 percent who think it’s on the wrong track is a plus for the governor. Still, this week’s poll shows that both Montana Republicans in Congress — Sen. Conrad Burns and Rep. Denny Rehberg — are leading their races for re-election. A bad year in a second-term presidency isn’t unusual, and improving fortunes in the White House would likely to translate into improved Republican numbers in Montana as well. But for now, Montana Republicans looking for a little holiday cheer from Washington are only seeing a Grinch.