WP political blog: Dems Hold Edge in Top 20 House Races

The Fix, by Chris Cillizza
washingtonpost.com's Politics Blog
The Friday Line: Dems Hold Edge in Top 20 House Races

Democrats are growing increasingly confident of their chances of making major gains in the House in this year's elections -- and perhaps even seizing control of the chamber. Republicans privately acknowledge that they are likely to lose seats but believe they will remain the majority party at the start of the 110th Congress.

In order to show Fix readers a broader snapshot of the seats at the epicenter of the midterm elections fight, the Friday House Line is expanding from ten to 20 races. In the interests of space (and The Fix's sanity), the analyses will be shorter. But by mid-next week we should have all of the races on washingtonpost.com's interactive campaign 2006 map, so be sure to check back for more information on the top races.

Democrats have a decided advantage in the expanded Friday Line, as only five current Democratic seats crack the top 20, compared to 15 GOP-held seats. Seven of the 20 seats are currently open, with only two of those are now held by Democrats....Remember: The no. 1 race is the most likely to change parties in November....

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1. Colorado's 7th District: This suburban Denver seat retains its no. 1 ranking. Colorado was one of the few bright spots for Democrats in the last election, as they won an open Senate seat and an open House seat. Any momentum for Democrats is sure to carry over in the 7th District, which was drawn as a swing seat in the 2001 redistricting process. Kerry won it with 51 percent in 2004, and many Republicans believe privately that Rep. Bob Beauprez (R), who is vacating the seat to run for governor, is the only GOPer who could have held the seat. Democrats will have an August primary between former state Sen. Ed Perlmutter and former state Rep. Peggy Lamm. Republicans have aligned behind Rick O'Donnell, former deputy chief of staff to Gov. Bill Owens (R). (Previous ranking: 1)...

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