Dean's general election quandry

Dean has the most foot soldiers of any candidate. This sort of thing translates well in primary processes, but how will such a new (and perceived anti-war) candidate fare in a general election? This is the million dollar question. Dean does not yet have the name recognition of a Gore or Clinton and he is from what is considered a small and irrelevent state (VT). He has created a massive swell of grassroots support in many primary states among mostly white, affluent people. History suggests that such a formula spells disaster against an incumbent president (McGovern etc), especially one during a perceived successfull military operation (Iraq) and a supposed rebounding economy. I still think this is a 50-50 country regardless of what happens, but it becomes a matter of which Democratic candidate can appeal most to the swing states that can push their party over? States like Ohio will be huge.

Dean positives:

Huge grassroots support

Ability to raise alot of money (more than any other candidate most likely)

"A" rating from the NRA (will play well in Ohio et al)

Fiscal conservatism

The fact that he is a physician and has common sense methods of providing healthcare insurance for all Americans


Dean negatives:

Perceived (at this point anyway) to be the ultimate "dove" candidate (even though he isn't). It will be an important task for Dean to position himself in the center in a general election vs Bush, and be able to explain why he is not "anti-war", but anti-unilateralism.

Very little foreign policy experience (which is looking like a big deal going into '04)

Considered to be from a small and unimportant state

And last, but not least, the BIGGEST negative re: Dean is his perceived "tax and spend" tendancies. He, in fact, wants to repeal the entire Bush tax cut, even the portions directed at the middle class. I don't know if a presidential candidate has ever won an election while running on "raising taxes on the middle class". Dean will suggest that by repealing the tax cut, property taxes will decrease, tuition will decrease etc, but I don't know if joe and jane public will buy it. To have the repealing of tax cuts as a big part of your platform can be very risky. Especially the middle class portions. I wouldnt be surprised if Dean flipped on this point when he wins the nomination, who knows.



All in all, Dean (or any candidate) has an uphill battle. I think with Dean and his grassroots system, he can have a good shot at registered a load of new voters (ones who were too young to vote in 2000) and motivating a younger generation in general. It will be interesting.

also, Dean (if nominated) will tap FL Senator Bob Graham as his running mate. Mark my word.

the VP slot if Dean gets the nomination.

They might be able to pull it off, but I am going to be queezy all year just waiting to see what BushCo is going to pull about 10 months from now.

:scared:

:hi:

you might like to read the following:


For Vietnam Vet Anthony Zinni, Another War on Shaky Territory
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A22922-2003Dec22?language=printer

Durable-Goods Orders Drop 3.1 Percent
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=1203&e=1&u=/ap/20031225/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/economy&sid=95609868

New Home Sales Slide in November
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=1203&e=4&u=/nm/20031224/bs_nm/economy_homes_dc&sid=95609869

The game depends on what you think the economy will look like in June/July. I personally think "depression" might be too strong a word but, hey, I'm often seen as a compulsive optimist.

Even something as odd as this "mad cow" thing could be enough to overturn BushCo's applecart. Having some folks die of the human version would cause a national panic and adios to the 10,000 + stock market.

We live on a knife's edge, and that won't be red ink you'll be seeing if things go out of control.

The P/E's are twice historical levels, so I think anything can trigger the bear market to resume. Depression may be too strong a word in 2004, but may not be in 2006 or 2008. I think the bear market will resume in 2004 and will bring down Bush.

Taking the unlikely premise that the economy will rebound, the task is much, much harder for the Democrats. There are still 3M jobs that have been lost. Even a fraction of this will not be created by election time. Still many other issues to attack Bush, such as education, health care, energy policy, corruption, foreign diplomacy failures, etc.

But the economy just isn't going to recovery, debt is at historic highs, both personal and national debt. There is no way to pump the economy or invest in growth until the debt has been purged. This could take many years.

My, that says a mouthful. How utterly provincial.

I didn't know that the USA HAD any "small and unimmportant states", did you?

unimportant state. His name is Bill Clinton from Arkansas and he served two tersm with the greatest peace and prosperity in years.

You're comparing Arkansas to Vermont, is that correct?

He is not saying Vermont is unimportant. He is saying that it could be viewed that way. If you want to know yourself, you should learn to think like your enemy.

why don't we just discuss the general ideas it proposes?

They will pick out one ambiguous or objectional point, get offended, and ignore the general sentiment. We're experts on that at DU.

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