My top 10 Senate races

I've done a couple of these and I usually do them a couple months apart to account for the changes in the races.

Best of the rest:

Washington-Cantwell isn't exactly loved, but she's got a neophyte, rich-man candidate. I don't see how her opponent, SAFECO CEO Mike McGavick chews into Washington's 5 point Demcoratic tilt.

Nevada-If Jack Carter could get any support from NV Dems he might be able to make a race out of this

Virginia-Webb has a lot of potential as a candidate and Allen doesn't seem to be taking him too seriously. Webb's biggest mistake seems to be declaring in Feb. 2006, instead of Feb. 2005.

Top 10:

10.Arizona-Sate Dem. part chair Pederson did any ad buy and reshuffled his campaign staff and it seems to have worked. The latest poll showed him down 11 while all the others showed him up 20+
Prediction: Kyl wins 54-46

9.Maryland-This race has taken a huge downgrade as Steele has fired a lot of his campaign staff and his assinine Stem Cell-Holocaust comparison. Still, there's a reason Steele was so heavily recruited and you know he will be well-funded. Also, a recent poll showed Mfume had an opportunity to beat Rep. Cardin in the primary. I think Mfume could probably still win, but it'd be real close.
Prediction: Cardin wins primary then beats Steele 55-45

8.Tennessee-The big benefit Harold Ford has is that he has no primary opposition. This has left him with the ability to just put his head down and raise money. The polls showed he'd do best against the moderate Bob Corker but none of the three poll above 50%.
Prediction: Ed Bryant wins GOP primary and beats Ford 52-47

7.Montana-I've flip-flopped on the primary on the Dem side. I'd supported Morrison because I thought he was the more electable candidate. But with his the news of his affair I think his campaign has been severely damaged. When the chief argument against your opponent is that he's corrupt and you hav your own baggage, your credibility is severely reduced. I now support Jon Tester in the Dem primary.
Prediction: Tester wins primary and beats Burns 51-49.

6.New Jersey-Sen. Menendez has two big advantages, he's an incumbent and he has a huge COH advantage. Kean Jr. seems to be an empty suit living off his dad's good name and I think once the campaign hits the home stretch he'll be exposed as such.
Prediction: Menendez wins 54-46

5.Ohio-The backlash from the Hackett situation seems to have died down. Still I have yet to see what cross-over appeal Brown has. With Blackwell winning the Republican primary I think it helps Dewine because it turns out the fundies who aren't that satisfied with Dewine. I want to say Dems win this seat, but I have yet to see the cross-over appeal of Brown.
Prediction: Dewine wins 50-49

4.Minnesota-This is a race that has flown under the radar a lot. Both candidates seem to be staying out of the news and just raising money. Like Brown I think that Kenedy doesn't have the cross-over appeal to appeal to Demcorats and I think Klouchbar will carry it for that reason.
Prediction: Klouchbar wins 51-48

3.Rhode Island-Two polls released last week showed 2 very different results. The first showed Chaffee up 52-37 on his Dem opponent Sheldon Whitehouse, the second showed him up 44-41. With Matt Brown exiting the primary, it nearly assures that Whitehouse will have a COH advantage should Chaffee win the primary, as he can now start camaigning with the heavy hitters like the Clintons and Obama and Chaffee has his primary challenge.
Prediction: Chaffee wins primary but loses in GE to Whitehouse 52-48

2.Missouri-This race has all the ingredients of a nail biter. Since McCaskill entered the race in August I don't think any poll has shown the race outside the Margin of error. McCaskill has proven cross-over ability and I think as long as Bush's approval ratings are in the toilet McCaskill will win.
Prediction: McCaskill wins 51-49

1.Pennsylvania-Rick Santorum is desperately trying to move to the center, now touting his ties to Bono. Everyone expects this race to tighten up as do I, but I don't think it'll be nearly enough as Pennsylvanians now fully know Rick Santorum and I don't think they like what they see.
Prediction: Casey wins 54-46

The leaves 4 Demcoratic pickups and a 51-49 GOP Senate. An early look at 2008 looks very good as Demcorats only have 12 seats up while Republicans have 21.

The press is finally onto him and the revelations about his racist past are catching up. This will, of course, make him more popular with the redneck crowd, but he could be in real trouble with independents and moderates when they hear about racist graffiti and start to ponder how Allen's three children came to be named after Confederate heroes - one, Gen. Nathan Forrest, a KKK Grand wizard responsible for atrocities against black Union soldiers. Allen is a real piece of work.

But I point back to the fact that I think he made a mistake in not declaring earlier. George Allen is going to be extremely well-funded and I think that in order to beat him your going to need a lot of money and Webb has made some money off of his fiction books but he's nowhere near being able to sink 5 million dollars into his own campaign.

I think Hilleary and Bryant will split the conservative vote, putting Corker in for the Republicans.

And, depending upon how bad things get for the Republicans between now and November, the race could tip either way between Corker and Ford Jr.

But I haven't seen any polls on the TN primary race so I'm simply going off of who's polling the best and would therefore be considred the strongest candidate.

between the three Republican contenders, either. All I could find was how each would match up against Ford Jr., so that doesn't really tell me anything.

The only thing I'm finding is that straw polls in rural counties are mixed - with support going for Van Hilleary in one small county and then for Ed Bryant in the next and so forth and so on. Also, since we only have conservative talk radio here, I am "treated" (NOT) to the rantings of several state conservatives regarding this race. They all seem to be divided between Hilleary and Bryant; therefore, that is why I posted as I did: that Hilleary and Bryant would split the ultra-conservative vote, with the fundies going toward Hilleary and the neo-cons toward Bryant, which would slip Bob Corker into the nomination in a squeaker.

Gosh, I hope that happens, as well. Democrats will tolerate Corker should he win - he's a pro-choice Republican who initiated some pretty liberal agendas in Chattanooga; however, if he IS the nominee, that background might keep some hard-core fundies and neo-cons away from the polls in November (choosing either to not vote or to vote for some nut write-in candidate), which would propel Ford Jr. into office.

That would be the best scenario, but it's still going to be an uphill battle for the Memphis congressman.

I won't contest your final numbers, though - it could go either way. Considering, however, that Tennessee has been frighteningly red since 2000, the fact that it COULD go either way is a marked improvement.

issue; Guns and God will make it very close; Slimetorum will carry the "T" section (central and N. tier) Worry that W. PA will go R because Swann "#88" is running for Gov and these people love football heroes.

Talent has come out against stem cell research. He took forever to do this. He was being pressured by the pro lifers as well as the biomedical research folks. But that industry is HUGE in MO and we all know how the repukes like to make money. So Talent can't win for losing on stem cell research.

Stem cell research will also be on the ballot in November. A RW state senator has been trying to ban it for the last few years, so a statewide vote will solve this problem once and for all. It looks like it will win easily (at least so far, but it is still early and the RW is just now starting to attack with their lies).

New Jersey will be a larger win for Menendez as the GOP is not popular there and Bob is working very aggressively to earn the voters trust:

Menendez: 55%
Kean 45%

Maryland:
Cardin: 57%
Steele: 43%

Pennsylvania:
Casey 56%
Santorum: 44%

Rhode Island:
A very Democratic State, Bush has a 25% approval rating. Tie Chaffee to Bush and he will lose by 10 points:

Pederson is hitting back hard. He had appeared to be too "wishy washy" and that hurt. But this changes that. Many in Arizona are fed up. Many GOP are threatening to vote straight Dem. They are mad at our legislature and mad at DC. This could be a DEm sweep. Remember we have a tremedously popular Governor who the Republicans like.And public perception is she has been abused by the legislature and by Bush. The public is rallying to her support and she could carry everyone with her including the Fed Senate race!
And it doesn't hurt that there is NO loyalty to Kyl but for the R after his name and that factor is evaporating. He has NO personality. Neither does Pederson but Pederson's ads are better and no one will ever hear either of them speak!

With Pederson is who he is and what type of campaign he's trying to run. He's trying to run a moderate, common-sense type of campaign. Its an effective strategy and its what Napolitano used to win in 02. Th problem is that Pederson was the State Demcoratic chairman, meaning his job was to be partisan.

Again, I hope all of you guys are right and the Demcorats do a lot better than I predict.

in either Tenn or Ohio or both.